EFFECT OF SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE ON SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODELING IN SELECTED BASINS1

ABSTRACT: The projected increase in the concentration of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to result in a global temperature increase. This paper reports on the probable effects of a temperature increase and changes in transpiration on basin discharge in two different mountain snowmelt regions of the western United States. The hydrological effects of the climate changes are modeled with a relatively simple conceptual, semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. Based on the model results, it may be concluded that increased air temperatures will result in a shift of snowmelt runoff to earlier in the snowmelt season. Furthermore, it is shown that it is very important to include the expected change in climate-related basin conditions resulting from the modeled temperature increase in the runoff simulation. The effect of adapting the model parameters to reflect the changed basin conditions resulted in a further shift of streamflow to April and an even more significant decrease of snowmelt runoff in June and July. If the air temperatures increase by approximately 5°C and precipitation and accumulated snow amounts remain about the same, runoff in April and May, averaged for the two basins, is expected to increase by 185 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The runoff in June and July will decrease by about 60 percent each month. Overall, the total seasonal runoff decreases by about 6 percent. If increased CO₂ concentrations further change basin conditions by reducing transpiration by the maximum amounts reported in the literature, then, combined with the 5°C temperature increase, the April, May, June, and July changes would average +230 percent, +40 percent, ?55 percent, and ?45 percent, respectively. The total seasonal runoff change would be +11 percent.     

Reaching environmental decisions: Making subjective and objective judgments

Objective judgments, external to the judge, are compared with subjective, internal judgments. This analysis is made in the context of reaching regulatory decisions affecting the human environment. Examples given include evaluating the potential risk of industrial chemicals and comparing the potential effects of short- and long-term changes in land use. The analysis deals not with the decisions themselves, but rather with the kinds of questions that must be posed in orderto reach such decisions. Decision makers may spuriously distinguish objective from subjective types of judgment, though these are rarely wholly separate. Judges can hardly dispute about objective statements, if truly identical definitions are used. But subjective statements can reasonably be voted upon. Scientists, engineers, and economists represent logical or objective decision makers, tending to work in groups. Subjective thinkers include artists and performers, and others who often work alone. Moral and aesthetic aspects of questions, usually seen as intangible, are treated as if subjective. Financial decisions, usually viewed as tangible, are handled as objective problems. This mechanism for making decisions is well-established in environmental assessment. Though objective questions can be treated well in the monetary terms of cost-benefit analysis, subjective ones cannot. Mathematical and other variants are discussed in relation to the comparison of alternative types of tests.     

THE COMPLETE DRAINAGE PROGRAM - MORE THAN AN ORDINANCE1

ABSTRACT. An ever increasing number of communities throughout the nation are being forced by Federal legislation and local pressures to adopt land use and control measures related to drainage and flood protection. In many instances communities are hastily adopting ordinances and regulations which later prove difficult to administer and enforce. In addition, many of these ordinances and regulations are not producing the results originally anticipated. This paper discusses the basic elements of a drainage ordinance and evaluates the role of the ordinance in a comprehensive drainage program. This evaluation is based on the results of a two year study of drainage programs in five urban areas which produced a model urban drainage ordinance and recommendations on the administration of the ordinance. Personal interviews and local documents are used as the data base in formulating conclusions and recommendations.     

MULTI-CRITERION RANKING OF ALTERNATIVE LONG-RANGE WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT The definition and comparison of alternative water resource systems designed to meet long-range goals (say 60 years) is illustrated by a case study in Hungary. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness approach is adapted to define goals, specifications, criteria, alternatives and their capabilities. Specifications include demands given in probabilistic terms. The comparison of alternative systems is based on 12 criteria, one of which is the balance between total energy consumed and peak energy produced. Important factors involving social elements, such as flood protection and land and forest use, are described both as monetary quantities and as qualitative appreciations. Five alternative systems are defied involving flat land reservoirs, pumped storage reservoirs, interbasin transfer, and conjunctive use of surface and ground water. International cooperation is then used to rank systems and reduce the problem to a tradeoff between only two alternatives.     

PUBLIC ATTITUDES IN MASSACHUSETTS TOWARD THE RECREATIONAL USE OF DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: There is considerable controversy inthe Northeast surrounding the extent to whcih public drinking water reservoirs should be used for recreational purposes. This paper reports the results of two integrated studies of (1) recreation users of Quabbin Reservation, the largest inland water source in New England and (2) the general public of Massachusetts. Data were obtained by conducting on-site interviews of Quabbin users and through state-wide telephone interviews of the general public; both studies focused on assessing attitudes toward the recreational use of drinking water reservoirs in Massachusetts. Unlike the findings of a 1969 study conducted by Baumann, results showed that the majority of Massachusetts residents do not favor recreation-prohibiting laws for most activities. Most favored at least moderate use of reservoirs for recreational purposes. In addition, over all views were not as restrictive as present legislation would suggest. Finally, these findings suggest that current recreation-prohibiting laws should be reassessed in light of pugblic opinion which favors the use of these valuable resources.     

NORMALIZED AGRICULTURAL PRICES AND WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Short-term fluctuations in agricultural markets necesitate adjustments in market prices for use in water resources planning. Two procudures for this price normalizing are described and evaluated. The linear treand and weighted average normalizing procedures perform reasonably well, except in cases of dramatic price oscillations.     

PRELIMINARY DESIGN AND COST ESTIMATING FOR RESERVOIR PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: In estimating the costs of a reservoir project, it is difficult to produce accurate costs without performing a detailed design and quantity takeoff. The computerized procedure presented in this article provides a method for determining these planning level costs quickly and easily, while maintaining reasonable accuracy.     

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS IN CORPS PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Survey data from samples of two types of Corps of Engineers planning studies have been collected. The nature of significant environmental issues affecting the studies was ascertained. Information concerning District administrative practices and communication patterns and extraorganizational coordination procedures was also obtained. Statistical analysis examined the relationships between these practices and procedures and the consideration given environmental issues in plan formulation and modification decisions. Environmental issues receive greater consideration in plan formulation decisions where District policies encourage interdisciplinary planning and direct communication between planners and environmental interests. Plan modification decisions reflect environmental considerations to a greater degree where significant controversy exists and where reviewing agencies actively pursue environmental issues.     

MODELING MULTIPLE-USE IN NATURAL AREAS: PART II - THE SANTEE SWAMP STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The previous paper in this two-part series presented the basic information of a newly developed mathematical model of multiple-use in natural areas. The model is a unified system for the assessment of cases where development is proposed for relatively natural areas. This paper presents the results of an application of the model to a study of the proposed timber harvest in the Great Santec Swamp in South Carolina. This was done in an effort to demonstrate the utility of the model as a planning and assessment tool. Four potential uses of the Swamp were investigated: logging of hardwood saw timber, hunting, fishing, and nature observation. The model system proved to be extremely useful in the evaluation of potential management schemes and in the selection of the most promising or optimal management plan.     

FIELD EVALUATION OF SOME PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: Public involvement in water resources planning is receiving much current attention, and there is a need to examine systematically how different public involvement techniques work in practice. The following techniques were among those used to involve the public in a recent Corps of Engineers’study of flooding on San Pedro Creek in Pacifica, California: a public workshop, citizen information bulletins (CIBs) and questionnaries. Interviews were held with 75 study participants to evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques. The interviews indicated that various study participants felt positively about the particular workshop format employed and about the use of a communications specialist to train workshop leaders. There were mixed reactions to the effectiveness of the CIBs and questionnaires. Although many individual citizens felt that the CIBs and questionnaires were useful, some of the Corps planners felt that CIBs and questionnaires would only be “cost-effective” on large studies and/or where the questionnaire response rate was high. The interviews led to a number of specific suggestions regarding how the extent of public involvement could be increased in future water resources planning studies.