山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

Self‐monitoring personality trait at work: An integrative narrative review and future research directions

In this narrative review, we provide an overview of the self‐monitoring literature as it applies to the workplace context. Our starting point to the review is a meta‐analysis of self‐monitoring literature published in 2002 by Day, Schleicher, Unckless, and Hiller. After providing an overview of the theoretical basis of self‐monitoring and its measurement, we present a summary of the broad literature on self‐monitoring to examine the implications of self‐monitoring for employees and organizations. Based on our review, we identify the main outcomes of self‐monitoring as well as findings of the literature treating self‐monitoring as a moderator. We provide evidence that self‐monitoring has potential downsides, which would benefit from further investigation. We conclude our review by identifying important potential future research directions.     

Rivals or allies: How performance‐prove goal orientation influences knowledge hiding

Previous research suggests that performance‐prove goal orientation is positively related to knowledge hiding. However, we argue that this effect depends on the focus of performance feedback (i.e., individual‐ and group‐focused feedback), which shapes the nature of the competitive expression of performance‐prove goal orientation (i.e., intragroup and intergroup oriented). We conducted three studies to test our theoretical model. The results of Study 1 with time‐lagged data from 128 part‐time MBA students showed that performance‐prove goal orientation was positively related to knowledge hiding when performance feedback focused more (vs. less) on individual performance but was negatively related to knowledge hiding when performance feedback focused more (vs. less) on group performance. Study 2 replicated these moderation findings in an experimental study of 210 undergraduate students. Study 3 again replicated the moderation effects using multisource data from 317 employees and their supervisors. It also included creativity as an outcome of knowledge hiding and illustrated the distal consequence of the moderation effects of individual‐ and group‐focused performance feedback. We then discussed the implications for the theory and practice of performance‐prove goal orientation and knowledge hiding.     

Why did I say sorry? Apology motives and transgressor perceptions of reconciliation

Despite the importance of apology in reconciling interpersonal transgressions, little research has focused on the people engaging in the behavior. Why do transgressors apologize in the workplace, and do apology motives shape transgressor perceptions of reconciliation? We conducted three field studies using qualitative and quantitative methodologies to examine these questions. In Studies 1 and 2 (total N = 781), we identified four distinct apology motives—self‐blame, relational value, personal expedience, and fear of sanctions—and developed self‐report scales to measure the motives. In Study 3 (N = 420), we examined relations between apology motives and transgressor perceptions of victim forgiveness and relationship reconciliation through the lens of motivated cognition. We found that apologizing due to self‐blame, relational value, and personal expedience increases perceptions of victim forgiveness, whereas apologizing due to fear of sanctions decreases perceived forgiveness. Moreover, mediation analyses revealed that motives indirectly influence transgressor perceptions of relationship reconciliation through perceived forgiveness. Taken together, our research presents a novel multidimensional perspective on apology‐giving in the workplace, suggesting that why transgressors apologize can affect their perceptions of reconciliation. Overall, our research highlights the need to incorporate transgressor cognitive and motivational processes into reconciliation research.     

The spillover effects of coworker,supervisor, and outsider workplace incivility on work‐to‐family conflict: A weekly diary design

This study used an experience sampling design to examine the spillover effects of experienced workplace incivility from organizational insiders (coworkers and supervisors, respectively) and organizational outsiders (patients and their visitors) on targets' work‐to‐family conflict and to test the mediating effect of burnout and the moderating effect of display rules. Data collected over five consecutive weeks from 84 full‐time nurses showed that within individuals, weekly experiences of coworker incivility and outsider incivility were positively related to weekly experience of work‐to‐family conflict, and burnout mediated these relationships while controlling for initial level of burnout before participants started a week's work. In addition, display rules, defined as the extent to which individuals perceive they are expected to display desired positive emotions and suppress negative emotions at work, moderated the relationship between outsider incivility and burnout; specifically, the positive relationship between weekly outsider incivility and burnout was stronger for individuals who perceived a higher level of display rules. Our findings contribute to the literature by demonstrating the mediating effect of burnout and the moderating effect of perceived display rules in the relationship between workplace incivility from multiple sources and work‐to‐family conflict from a resource perspective.     

Frequency versus time lost measures of absenteeism: Is the voluntariness distinction an urban legend?

We investigate a long‐standing methodological rule of thumb, the idea that the frequency of absenteeism from work approximates an expression of voluntary behavior while total time lost better reflects involuntary behavior and ill health. Conducting original meta‐analyses and using results from existing meta‐analyses, we determine that time lost and frequency are equally reliable, that the relationship between them approximates unity when corrections for measurement artifacts are applied, and that there is very little evidence for differential criterion‐related validity predicated on the voluntariness distinction. We supply new meta‐analytic estimates of the reliability of absenteeism adjusted for aggregation period and determine that most extant meta‐analyses of the correlates of absenteeism have markedly under‐corrected for unreliability. Our results question the basic construct validity of the time lost–frequency distinction, and they contradict the practice of using “trigger points” that factor absence frequency into attendance monitoring and associated discipline systems so as to discourage short‐term absenteeism, assumed to be volitional. We conclude that the idea that time lost and frequency reflect different degrees of voluntariness is an unsupported urban research legend. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to dissolve fixed‐pie bias in negotiation? Social antecedents and the mediating effect of mental‐model adjustment

Fixed‐pie bias, defined as the erroneous belief that the other negotiation party's interest is directly opposite to one's own, has been a consistent hurdle that negotiators must overcome in their efforts to achieve optimal negotiation outcomes. In this study, we explore the underlying cognitive mechanism and the social antecedents of fixed‐pie bias reduction in negotiation. Using data from a negotiation simulation with 256 participants, we found that mental‐model adjustments made by negotiators could effectively decrease fixed‐pie bias. More interestingly, we also found that negotiators were less likely to reduce fixed‐pie bias when negotiating with an in‐group member than with an out‐group member but only under a high accountability condition. Finally, we found that mental‐model adjustment mediated the effects of the aforementioned social antecedents (in‐groupness and accountability) on reduced fixed‐pie bias. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Designing regional-level stakeholder engagement processes: striving for good governance while meeting the challenges of scale

Stakeholder engagement processes have sought to ensure that state government meets public trust and good governance obligations to citizens. As the expectations of stakeholders and state agencies change, and management focuses on landscape-level interventions, a change in the level at which agencies engage the public is needed. This involves tradeoffs, as different levels call for different engagement design and implementation considerations. To understand how these differences affect decision making, we examine a regional engagement model for deer management in New York that was piloted to replace a sub-regional model. We identify concerns with the old model, objectives for the redesigned model, and explain the logistical and good governance considerations that informed its design. We share our evaluation of the model's process and outcomes, including implications for program design and scale. Overall, despite the pilot model's attention to design components aimed at addressing potential barriers to regional engagement as well as limitations of the previous engagement model, the pilot did not meet many of its objectives, especially those related to representation, resulting in some of the same concerns associated with the model it was intended to enhance and replace. Implications of this for regional-level engagement efforts are discussed.     

Comparative Analysis of Inundation Mapping Approaches for the 2016 Flood in the Brazos River,Texas

Accurate and timely flood inundation maps serve as crucial information for hydrologists, first‐responders, and decision makers of natural disaster management agencies. In this study, two modeling approaches are applied to estimate the inundation area for a large flooding event that occurred in May 2016 in the Brazos River: (1) Height Above the Nearest Drainage combined with National Hydrograph Dataset Plus (NHDPlus‐HAND) and (2) International River Interface Cooperative — Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels (iRIC‐FaSTMECH). The inundation extents simulated from these two modeling approaches are then compared against the observed inundation extents derived from a Landsat 8 satellite image. The simulated results from NHDPlus‐HAND and iRIC‐FaSTMECH show 56% and 70% of overlaps with the observed flood extents, respectively. A modified version of the NHDPlus‐HAND model, considering networked catchment behaviors, is also tested with an improved fitness of 67%. This study suggests that NHDPlus‐HAND has the potential for real‐time continental inundation forecast due to its low computational cost and ease to couple with the National Water Model. Better performance of NHDPlus‐HAND can be achieved by considering the inter‐catchment flows during extreme riverine flood events. Overall, this study presents a comprehensive examination made of remote sensing compared with HAND‐based inundation mapping in a region of complex topography.     

Cyberinfrastructure and Web Apps for Managing and Disseminating the National Water Model

Hydrologic modeling can be used to provide warnings before, and to support operations during and after floods. Recent technological advances have increased our ability to create hydrologic models over large areas. In the United States (U.S.), a new National Water Model (NWM) that generates hydrologic variables at a national scale was released in August 2016. This model represents a substantial step forward in our ability to predict hydrologic events in a consistent fashion across the entire U.S. Nevertheless, for these hydrologic results to be effectively communicated, they need to be put in context and be presented in a way that is straightforward and facilitates management‐related decisions. The large amounts of data produced by the NWM present one of the major challenges to fulfill this goal. We created a cyberinfrastructure to store NWM results, “accessibility” web applications to retrieve NWM results, and a REST API to access NWM results programmatically. To demonstrate the utility of this cyberinfrastructure, we created additional web apps that illustrate how to use our REST API and communicate hydrologic forecasts with the aid of dynamic flood maps. This work offers a starting point for the development of a more comprehensive toolset to validate the NWM while also improving the ability to access and visualize NWM forecasts, and develop additional national‐scale‐derived products such as flood maps.