时变参数模型用于滑坡位移量预测的研究

滑坡的位移量发展受地质条件、气候环境以及人类活动等多种因素的影响,变化复杂,通常难以用固定参数的数学模型准确表达。时变参数模型的模型参数随时间变化,能够描述更为复杂的函数关系。将时变参数模型应用于滑坡位移量预测,通过对比发现,时变参数模型有望提高滑坡位移量的预测精度。     

基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。     

灾变预测在企业安全事故预测中的应用

简述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点及其建模过程,并将其应用于企业安全事故预测之中.经检验,模型的精度等级为好,模型的预测结果可靠,对于企业安全事故的预测有一定帮助.     

China's Present Situation of Coal Consumption and Future Coal Demand Forecast

This article analyzes China's coal consumption changes since 1991 and proportion change of coal consumption to total energy consumption. It is argued that power, iron and steel, construction material, and chemical industries are the four major coal consumption industries, which account for 85% of total coal consumption in 2005. Considering energy consumption composition characteristics of these four industries, major coal demand determinants, potentials of future energy efficiency improvement, and structural changes, etc., this article makes a forecast of 2010s and 2020s domestic coal demand in these four industries. In addition, considering such relevant factors as our country's future economic growth rate and energy saving target, it forecasts future energy demands, using per unit GDP energy consumption method and energy elasticity coefficient method as well. Then it uses other institution's results about future primary energy demand, excluding primary coal demand, for reference, and forecasts coal demands in 2010 and 2020 indirectly. After results comparison between these two methods, it is believed that coal demands in 2010 might be 2620-2850 million tons and in 2020 might be 3090-3490 million tons, in which, coal used in power generation is still the driven force of coal demand growth.     

应用指数平滑法建立城市工业三废排放量预测模型

指数平滑法是常用的一种时间序列预测方法，但用于环境预测的先例则较少。本文以南通市１９８１－１９９０年工业三废排放量时间序列为例，简要介绍了该法的原理以及平滑计算、建模、预测和精度分析的过程，并对其在环境预测中的应用效果进行了探讨，结果表明，该法与目前环境预测中常用的回归法相比，具有数据来源较易，不需要特殊分布，计算简单，精度较高等明显的优点，充分显示出该法在环境预测中应用的可行性。     

An air quality forecasting system in Beijing - Application to the study of dust storm events in China in May 2008

An air pollution forecast system, ARIA Regional, was implemented in 2007-2008 at the Beijing Municipality Environmental Monitoring Center, providing daily forecast of main pollutant concentrations. The chemistry-transport model CHIMERE was coupled with the dust emission model MB95 for restituting dust storm events in springtime so as to improve forecast results. Dust storm events were sporadic but could be extremely intense and then control air quality indexes close to the source areas but also far in the Beijing area. A dust episode having occurred at the end of May 2008 was analyzed in this article, and its impact of particulate matter on the Chinese air pollution index (API) was evaluated. Following our estimation, about 23 Tg of dust were emitted from source areas in Mongolia and in the Inner Mongolia of China, transporting towards southeast. This episode of dust storm influenced a large part of North China and East China, and also South Korea. The model result was then evaluated using satellite observations and in situ data. The simulated daily concentrations of total suspended particulate at 6:00 UTC had a similar spatial pattern with respect to OMI satellite aerosol index. Temporal evolution of dust plume was evaluated by comparing dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) calculated from the simulations with AOD derived from MODIS satellite products. Finally, the comparison of reported Chinese API in Beijing with API calculated from the simulation including dust emissions had showed the significant improvement of the model results taking into account mineral dust correctly.     

基于裂区设计的大气能见度拟合及预测模型

通过收集分析广州能见度及影响因子数据的特征,使用R-project统计软件作为建模工具,采用多层裂区实验构建模型基本框架,选择影响显著的因子进行变量变形处理,对年、月、日、小时的数据特征进行层层分割设计,并在对应层次引入代表时间含义的虚拟变量以提高模型的表征水平,加入二次项、交叉项等提高模型的精度,得到拟合度高、适用性强的能见度拟合及预测模型。     

关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法

针对单一交通流预测方法存在的局限性和传统交通流组合预测模型中权重不能动态变化的问题,提出一种关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法。先对交叉口交通流的关联性进行分析,并给出关联交叉口的定义;再建立关联交叉口交通流模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型,该模型分别利用Kalman滤波器模型与SVM模型来预测关联交叉口交通流量,然后根据这2个模型预测的误差和交通量的变化趋势,采用模糊逻辑推理方法,对这2个预测模型分别赋予适当的权重。试验结果表明,组合预测模型的最大绝对误差、平均绝对误差和相关系数均明显好于单一的预测方法,分别为9.8%、4.63%和0.99。     

系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.     

乌鲁木齐市大气中SO2的灰色预测

根据灰色系统理论,联系乌鲁木齐市大气环境的实际状况,建立了精度检验为一级的灰色预测模型,并对大气中的SO2值进行了预测分析,结果表明,该预测模型具有较高的准确性、合理性和可信度.