基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的某弹用弹簧可靠性评估

目的 解决某弹用弹簧可靠性评估中存在的不确定性问题。方法 对某弹用弹簧进行加速退化试验,试验过程中发现其具有多个性能退化参数,并且其退化过程具有非线性、随机性及样本差异性的特征。为了对其退化过程进行数学表征,提出一种基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的退化模型。采用基于时间尺度变换的非线性Wiener过程,描述弹簧退化过程中的非线性与随机性。基于随机效应模型,对样本的差异性进行表征,利用Copula函数描述多元性能参数之间的相互作用关系。最后推导弹簧失效寿命的概率密度函数、可靠度函数。结果 在贮存条件为25 ℃、可靠度为0.9时,基于构建的多元随机效应Wiener过程模型,当考虑性能间的相关性时,得到某弹用弹簧的贮存寿命为12 a;不考虑性能间的相关性时,得到其贮存寿命为11.5 a。结论 构建的多元随机退化模型为该弹药健康状态管理提供了相应的理论依据。     

过去两千年长江干流历史洪水事件的时空变化研究

理解极端洪水事件活动特征及其与气候变化、人类活动的相互关系一直是全球变化研究的热点问题。现代器测数据较短对洪水事件变化规律预测存在不足,而利用历史文献记录研究百年-千年尺度洪水事件的发生规律则成为一个较好的选择。洪水灾害是长江流域最为严重的自然灾害之一。本文以官方现存历史记载为依据,构建了过去2000年长江干流上、中、下游洪水事件序列,并将其与气候和人类活动代理指标进行对比。结果表明,1350年之前,长江干流洪水事件受东亚季风(EASM)、西南季风(ISM)、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、热带辐合带(ITCZ)移动等多种气候因素驱动,且气候驱动机制在同期不同区、同区不同期存在显著差异。此外,1350年之后人类活动的增强可能明显加剧了长江干流洪水事件的频率和强度。     

Random walk modeling of wake dispersion for the exhaust tower of an underground tunnel in urban area

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＲｅｃｅｎｔｌｙ，ｓｏｍｅｉｎｓｔａｌｌａｔｉｏｎｓｗｉｔｈｓｐｅｃｉａｌｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｆｏｒｅｘｔｒａｃｔｉｎｇｃｏｎｔａｍｉｎａｎｔｇａｓ，ｓｕｃｈａｓａｎｅｘｈａｕｓｔｔｏｗｅｒｏｆｔｈｅｕｎｄｅｒｇｒｏｕｎｄｔｕｎｎｅｌ，ｅｔｃ．ｗｅｒｅｓｅｔｕｐｉｎｕｒｂａｎａｎｄｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌｃｏｍｐｌｅｘａｒｅａｓ．Ｔｈｅｅｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｓｏｎｔｈｅｆｌｏｗａｎｄｔｈｅｒｅｂｙｏｎｔｈｅｌｏｃａｌｄｉｓｐｅｒｓｉｏｎｏｆｔ…     

基于随机森林与地统计预测城市土壤PAHs分布

收集南京城区采样点位置信息和环境变量等数据,应用地统计和随机森林方法,以及两种方法相结合分别预测土壤多环芳烃（polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons,PAHs）含量,并比较不同方法预测精度.结果表明：随机森林与地统计方法结合能大幅度提高城市土壤污染物制图精度,整合克里金与随机森林预测残差模型拟合优度R²相比克里金插值法提高74.8%.PAHs空间制图结果能够较好拟合污染物的变化范围,识别污染高值区与低值区的空间分布.随机森林输出特征重要性发现影响南京城区土壤PAHs分布的主控因子为土壤碳和土壤粒度以及工厂密度.本研究可为城市污染物高分辨率和高精度制图以及污染防控治理提供参考.     

A numerical method for spherical particle motion in turbulent flow with large Reynolds number

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｓｏｌｉｄ／ｆｌｕｉｄｔｗｏｐｈａｓｅｆｌｏｗｓａｒｅｏｆｔｅｎｅｎｃｏｕｎｔｅｒｅｄｉｎｍａｎｙｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌ，ｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌａｎｄｈｙｄｒａｕｌｉｃｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ，ｓｕｃｈａｓｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎｉｎｒｉｖｅｒｓ，ｗａｓｔｅｗａｔｅｒｆｌｏｗｗｉｔｈｓｏｌｉｄｐａｒｔｉｃｌｅｓａｎｄｓｏｏｎ．Ｒｅｃｅｎｔｌｙ，ｃｏｎｓｉｄｅｒａｂｌｅｅｆｆｏｒｔｓｒｅｇａｒｄｉｎｇｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｓｈａｖｅｂ…     

细菌趋化性研究进展

趋化性是细菌对多种化学物质的浓度梯度产生趋向或离避响应的行为,在许多研究领域中具有重要意义.本文综述了细菌趋化性的机制、细菌群体和个体的趋化行为及其相关实验方法的研究进展.参55     

染色体步行PCR技术

染色体步行是一种常用的克隆已知基因旁侧序列的技术.本文综述了现有的染色体步行PCR技术,如反向PCR、锅柄PCR、连接介导PCR、热不对称PCR、SON PCR等,并在此基础上提出了一种新的染色体步行PCR技术的构思.它运用特异引物与随机引物的搭配,在普通PCR程序下扩增目的序列.实验中设置相应随机引物的RAPD对照,识别非目的扩增产物.文中介绍了新方法的原理,分析了这种方法的优缺点.这种方法可能是一种新的有效进行染色体步行的PCR技术,国内外尚未见相关报道.图2参26     

The impacts of different kinds of dust events on PM10 pollution in northern China

In this study the frequencies of PM₁₀ (as key urban pollutant) in 14 key environmental protection cities in northern China were analyzed. It follows that the PM₁₀ concentration in the high-frequency period is higher with an extent 0.009–0.066 mg m⁻³ than in the low-frequency period of 2001–2002. Further the impacts of three kinds of dust events on the PM₁₀ concentration in four cities (Beijing, Hohhot, Xi’an and Lanzhou) were explored. The results showed that different kinds of dust events have different influences on variation of PM₁₀ concentration in these four cities. In Lanzhou and Hohhot, which are near the source areas of dust events, the contribution degree of these three dust events to the PM₁₀ is: floating dust>dust storm>blowing dust. Whereas, in Beijing and Xi’an situated in dust event passing areas, the mean value of PM₁₀ concentration is higher in blowing dust than in floating dust (no dust storm). In addition, the influences of dust events on PM₁₀ concentration are different in the cities on different dust event paths. In Beijing and Hohhot (on the northern path), the high PM₁₀ concentration is usually caused by blowing dust. But in both Lanzhou and Xi’an (on the western/northwestern path) the high PM₁₀ pollution concentration is usually caused by floating dust.     

Quantifying the efficiency of soil sampling designs: A multivariate approach

The objective of this paper is to quantify and compare the loss functions of the standard two-stage design and its composite sample alternative in the context of multivariate soil sampling. The loss function is defined (conceptually) as the ratio of cost over information and measures design inefficiency. The efficiency of the design is the reciprocal of the loss function. The focus of this paper is twofold: (a) we define a measure of multivariate information using the Kullback–Leibler distance, and (b) we derive the variance-covariance structure for two soil sampling designs: a standard two-stage design and its composite sample counterpart. Randomness in the mass of soil samples is taken into account in both designs. A pilot study in Slovenia is used to demonstrate the calculations of the loss function and to compare the efficiency of the two designs. The results show that the composite sample design is more efficient than the two-stage design. The efficiency ratio is 1.3 for pH, 2.0 for C, 2.1 for N, and 2.5 for CEC. The multivariate efficiency ratio is 2.3. These ratios primarily reflect cost ratios; influence of the information is small.     

Random binary matrices in biogeographical ecology—Instituting a good neighbor policy

Binary matrices originating from presence/absence data on species (rows) distributed over sites (columns) have been a subject of much controversy in ecological biogeography. Under the null hypothesis that every matrix is equally likely, the distributions of some test statistics measuring co-occurrences between species are sought, conditional on the row and column totals being fixed at the values observed for some particular matrix. Many ad hoc methods have been proposed in the literature, but at least some of them do not provide uniform random samples of matrices. In particular, some swap algorithms have not accounted for the number of neighbors each matrix has in the universe of matrices with a set of fixed row and column sums. We provide a Monte-Carlo method using random walks on graphs that gives correct estimates for the distributions of statistics. We exemplify its use with one statistic.