基于神经网络的洪水预报研究

人工神经网络通过神经元之间的相互作用来完成整个网络的信息处理,具有自学习和自适应等一系列优点,因而用它来进行洪水预报是可行的.对洪水预报问题,初步建立了基于神经网络的洪水预报系统,给出了应用实例.     

洪水前兆的初步探讨

根据历史洪水和现有研究 ,比较系统地分析了各种洪水前兆 ,可以为洪水预报提供一定的理论依据 ,同时指出 ,为了提高预报精度 ,必须对洪水前兆进行综合分析 ,去伪存真 ,最终达到防洪减灾的目的     

长江中游地区防洪与农业现代化

１９９８年长江大洪水后开始实施的“平垸行洪,退田还尖”的土地利用调整方案,从长远来说应录求农业安且且收入逐渐提高条件下的土地利用,长江中游地区应积极推进农业现代化,提高农业劳动生产率,转移,减水分蓄洪区的人口,移民建镇,对区内的土地要促进其规模经或,由优秀的有文化的农民经营,平时只有少量的直接从事农业生产的经营管理人员,农忙时则大量地作用委节性合同工或实现机械化;大洪水时退田还湖,减轻长江干流大洪     

El Niño platforms: participatory disaster response in Peru

Climate change is expected to lead to greater extremes (droughts and floods) in river regimes around the world. While the number of major calamities is predicted to rise, the efforts of the public sector, experts and local stakeholders are badly coordinated. Consequently, aid does not reach target groups, resulting in unnecessary losses. Hence, there is a need for more participatory and integrative approaches. To ensure a more concerted response to climate-induced disasters, stakeholders could coordinate and negotiate within Multi-Stakeholder Platforms. Such roundtables are increasingly being established for vision-building and integrated water resource management, but could be employed in disaster management as well. After discussing the advantages and disadvantages of participation, this article trace the rise of and the problems facing two 'El Ni?o' platforms: one in Ica, a city on the Peruvian coast that flooded unexpectedly in January 1998, and one in Ayacucho, which saw a climate change-induced drought around the same time. The issue of internal and external legitimacy receives particular emphasis.     

Hurricane Harvey and Greater Houston households: comparing pre-event preparedness with post-event health effects,event exposures,and recovery

Most disaster studies rely on convenience sampling and ‘after-only’ designs to assess impacts. This paper, focusing on Hurricane Harvey (2017) and leveraging a pre-/post-event sample of Greater Houston households (n=71) in the United States, establishes baselines for disaster preparedness and home structure flood hazard mitigation, explores household-level ramifications, and examines how preparedness and mitigation relate to health effects, event exposures, and recovery. Between 70 and 80 per cent of participants instituted preparedness measures. Mitigation actions varied: six per cent had interior drainage systems and 83 per cent had elevated indoor heating/cooling components. Sixty per cent reported home damage. One-half highlighted allergies and two-thirds indicated some level of post-traumatic stress (PTS). Three-quarters worried about family members/friends. The results of generalised linear models revealed that greater pre- event mitigation was associated with fewer physical health problems and adverse experiences, lower PTS, and faster recovery. The study design exposed the broad benefits of home structure flood hazard mitigation for households after Harvey.     

石墨气体扩散电极的制备与性能优化

电极的制备工艺及参数直接影响电极材料的活性。主要考察了C/PTFE质量比、碾压压力、煅烧温度、造孔剂NH4HCO3及稀土掺杂等因素对电极产出H2O2的影响规律。研究结果表明,电极最佳制备条件为:石墨和PTFE质量比为2∶1、石墨、造孔剂和稀土元素质量比为6∶1∶1、碾压压力10 MPa、煅烧温度330℃。在pH=3、电解质Na2SO4浓度为0.05mol/L条件下,电解2 h后,改性电极产生的H2O2从95 mg/L提高到350 mg/L,提高了268.4%。     

Inequalities in exposure and awareness of flood risk in England and Wales

This paper explores the environmental inequalities of living in the floodplains of England and Wales and the differences in flood awareness of those 'at risk'. An area comparison is made between an etic, objective flood risk exposure, and an emic, subjective perception of that risk by social class. In all areas except the Midlands, the working classes were more likely to reside in the floodplains; the greatest exposure inequality is seen in the North East and Anglian regions. Flood awareness in the Anglian regions was much lower than average, but there were no significant class differences. In the Thames region, despite equal flood risk exposure between classes, the most deprived displayed the least awareness of flood risk. In the North East, inequalities in the distribution of flood risk exposure accompanied inequalities in perception, resulting in the least aware and most deprived experiencing the greatest flood risk.     

Development of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for plasma vitellogenin in Chinese rare minnow (Gobiocypris rarus)

Due to the wide occurrence of endocrine disrupting chemicals in the environment, it is much of importance to develop high throughput screening method for the analysis of this kind of pollutants. Using anion-exchange membrane chromatography, vitellogenin (VTG) from the plasma of 17β-estradiol (E₂) treated Chinese rare minnow was rapidly purified within 15 min. Both polyclonal antibody (PcAb) and monoclonal antibody (McAb) against rare minnow VTG (R-VTG) were prepared in rabbit and Balb/c mice, respectively. The competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) based on either PcAb or McAb were developed to identify and quantify R-VTG in the plasma, and these two methods showed similar characteristics. The detection limits of both assays were lower than 3 ng mL⁻¹ with the working ranges covering three magnitudes. The recovery efficiencies of PcAb and McAb based ELISA were 104.2% and 102.6%, respectively; and the intra-assay and inter-assay of these two assays were 6.2% and 9.2%, 8.6% and 12.8%, respectively. These results indicated that the described competitive ELISA methods were sensitive and valuable tools for quantifying vitellogenin in rare minnow plasma. These methods were then applied to measure R-VTG concentrations in plasma of male fish exposed to a series of E₂ concentrations. When E₂ levels were less than 10 ng L⁻¹, R-VTG levels in plasma were comparable to that in solvent control, while R-VTG levels significantly increased 15-folds and 350-folds, respectively when E₂ exposure concentrations were controlled at 10 and 50 ng L⁻¹. The high sensitivity of Chinese rare minnow to E₂ was demonstrated, making it a valuable model species to study environmental estrogens.     

Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

微波辅助法合成纳米ReFeO3光催化剂

以稀土金属硝酸盐La（NO3）3、Sm（NO3）3、Eu（NO3）3、Gd（NO3）3和Fe（NO3）3.9H2O为原材料,以活性炭为模板剂,聚乙烯醇（PVA）和尿素分别用作阻聚剂和均相沉淀剂,在微波辐照下制得纳米钙钛矿型化合物ReFeO3（Re：La,Sm,Eu,Gd）。用X射线粉末衍射仪（XRD）、UV-vis漫反射仪（DRS）、扫描电子显微镜（SEM）、透射电子显微镜（TEM）对产物组成、结构、颗粒大小、形貌等进行了表征,结果表明产物均为单一钙钛矿结构的纳米颗粒。以产物为光催化剂,在可见光照射下对罗丹明B水溶液进行光催化降解实验,发现该类化合物均具有较好的光催化活性,180 min内对罗丹明B的脱色率均达到85%以上。