基于炭化痕迹的火灾数值重构及应用

利用试验方法建立了炭化痕迹的数学模型,与火灾流体动力学软件FDS相耦合,实现对炭化痕迹的再现,同时,进行了较为接近真实火灾的火灾场景试验,并用新编译的FDS软件对试验进行重构。结果表明:火势发展变化趋势基本一致;起火后,火场热释放速率迅速上升,100 s左右达到约2750 kW,随后开始下降,直至434 s降到700kW左右,与火势进程基本吻合;试验得到的密度板炭化痕迹未被烧损的区域(横向30.2~86.8 cm、纵向0~18.6 cm)略小于重构得到的密度板炭化痕迹未被烧损的区域(横向33.4~91.6 cm、纵向0~18.9cm),但分布规律基本一致,验证了新编译的FDS软件的有效性。将该软件应用于消防工作,不仅可以作为一种定量方法来描述炭化痕迹的形成过程,还可以通过火场中的炭化痕迹来反推起火点位置,辅助火灾调查工作。     

正逆向集成设计在对讲机外壳造型中的应用

从对讲机外壳造型设计的实际应用出发,在分别讨论正向设计和逆向设计的基础上,提出将两者有机结合的CAD建模方法,并详细分析了其集成技术。最后,给出了一个应用实例,表明该技术方法的可行性和有效性,从而为产品创新设计提供了一条重要途径。     

Patchy Distribution Fields: An Interleaved Survey Design and Reconstruction Adequacy

A mathematical model was used to compare the effects of a regular (one-pass) or interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches of different shapes and spatial orientations, and a set of parallel or zigzag transects forming a regular or interleaved acoustic survey. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations. Regarding the immovable fields, the efficiency of a regular or interleaved acoustic survey was tested with the following two alternative assumptions: (1) the entire survey was completed; (2) the survey was interrupted for some reason at the moment when one transect remained non-accomplished. In the former case, the efficiencies of both acoustic surveys were nearly the same; in the latter case, the efficiency of an interleaved survey was superior to that of a regular one. With respect to movable fields, the efficiency of the completed interleaved surveys was even higher than that of the regular ones. Thus, the results obtained allow us to conclude that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.     

面向生态文明的中国环境管理学:历史使命与学术话语

中国环境管理面临实践困境和学科认同危机的双重考验。本文在回溯其环境学和公共管理的学科渊源基础上,分析了当下中国环境管理学的基本概念、学科归属、功能与定位,认为新时期应基于生态文明思想,重构中国环境管理学的规范价值、知识体系、政策工具与制度机制,提出了重构中国环境管理学的5项建议,包括须注意环境管理的回应性与前瞻性,学科专业性与跨学科协作并重,创新环境管理学的知识生产方式,搭建环境管理学同政治与大众对话的平台和机制,以及形成环境管理的理论、制度与实践相互转化的研究能力等。最后,提出以生态文明思想为引领,树立中国环境治理的道路自信、理论自信、制度自信、文化自信。     

基于IPSO-BP的受损钢结构改造施工安全预警评估研究

为研究受损钢结构改造施工安全预警状况,建立受损情况下钢结构改造施工安全预警指标体系,并针对BP神经网络算法易陷入局部最优的问题,提出了用改进粒子群算法（IPSO）对BP神经网络权重及阈值进行调整的IPSO-BP安全预警评估模型。通过分析某单层重钢厂房受损现状,针对其结构损伤情况和已构建的安全控制指标体系进行数值模拟分析。研究结果表明:与传统的BP模型相比,IPSO-BP模型具有更好的预测能力,构建的安全预警指标体系及预警模型可以很好地对受损钢结构改造施工过程安全状况进行综合评估,对受损钢结构改造施工安全控制具有一定的参考价值。     

Building a better baseline to estimate 160 years of avian population change and create historically informed conservation targets

Globally, anthropogenic land-cover change has been dramatic over the last few centuries and is frequently invoked as a major cause of wildlife population declines. Baseline data currently used to assess population trends, however, began well after major changes to the landscape. In the United States and Canada, breeding bird population trends are assessed by the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which began in the 1960s. Estimates of distribution and abundance prior to major habitat alteration would add historical perspective to contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets. We used a hindcasting framework to estimate change in distribution and abundance of 7 bird species in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (United States). After reconciling classification schemes of current and 1850s reconstructed land cover, we used multiscale species distribution models and hierarchical distance sampling models to predict spatially explicit densities in the modern and historical landscapes. We estimated that since the 1850s, White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis) and Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) populations, 2 species sensitive to fragmentation of oak woodlands and grasslands, declined by 93% and 97%, respectively. Five other species we estimated nearly stable or increasing populations, despite steep regional declines since the 1960s. Based on these estimates, we developed historically based conservation targets for amount of habitat, population, and density for each species. Hindcasted reconstructions provide historical perspective for assessing contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets that can inform current management.     

Historical spatial reconstruction of a spawning‐aggregation fishery

Aggregations of individual animals that form for breeding purposes are a critical ecological process for many species, yet these aggregations are inherently vulnerable to exploitation. Studies of the decline of exploited populations that form breeding aggregations tend to focus on catch rate and thus often overlook reductions in geographic range. We tested the hypothesis that catch rate and site occupancy of exploited fish‐spawning aggregations (FSAs) decline in synchrony over time. We used the Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) spawning‐aggregation fishery in the Great Barrier Reef as a case study. Data were compiled from historical newspaper archives, fisher knowledge, and contemporary fishery logbooks to reconstruct catch rates and exploitation trends from the inception of the fishery. Our fine‐scale analysis of catch and effort data spanned 103 years (1911–2013) and revealed a spatial expansion of fishing effort. Effort shifted offshore at a rate of 9.4 nm/decade, and 2.9 newly targeted FSAs were reported/decade. Spatial expansion of effort masked the sequential exploitation, commercial extinction, and loss of 70% of exploited FSAs. After standardizing for improvements in technological innovations, average catch rates declined by 90.5% from 1934 to 2011 (from 119.4 to 11.41 fish/vessel/trip). Mean catch rate of Spanish mackerel and occupancy of exploited mackerel FSAs were not significantly related. Our study revealed a special kind of shifting spatial baseline in which a contraction in exploited FSAs occurred undetected. Knowledge of temporally and spatially explicit information on FSAs can be relevant for the conservation and management of FSA species.     

草甘膦生产过程中的节能控制

通过对现有亚磷酸二甲酯法合成草甘膦路线的研究,对部分工艺设备进行了改进。设备改进后,可以回用工艺中的洗涤用水,可以有效地利用回收甲醇的余热。结果表明,生产草甘膦每吨节约自来水0.5吨,蒸汽1吨,有效地降低能源消耗,减少了草甘膦的流失,从而减少了对环境的污染,实现了草甘膦的清洁生产。     

Impacts of Social and Demographic Factors on Residents’ Subjective Well-being in Rural China

Abstract

The objective of social development is to construct a harmonious society. In China, the key to a harmonious society is the happiness of more than 900 million farmers living in the rural areas. This study aimed to measure rural residents’ subjective well-being (SWB) through the day reconstruction method, as well as to analyze SWB’s influencing factors through a variety of statistical methods. The results showed that the average U index was 12.79%, indicating that respondents were unhappy 12.79% of the time. Twenty-seven percent of the population had a U index greater than 0, with the average value being 47%, indicating that these people were unhappy 47% of the time. The study also found that SWB varied according to the characteristics of the respondents. Logistic regression analysis showed that social and demographic factors, including age, education, county, household size, generation number, per capita income, migration status and social networking, which significantly affected rural residents’ SWB. The size of the impact varied with the different factors.     

河南神农山过去162年树轮季节降水重建

采用河南神农山白皮松轮宽序列,重建了该地区1850—2011 年上年9 月至当年6 月降 水量序列,重建方程方差解释量为42.4%。重建序列显示,在过去162 年中,神农山地区经历了 4 次持续时间超过5 年的严重干旱时段：1860—1879,1888—1913,1917—1945,1992—1998, 以及三次较为湿润的时段：1882—1893,1946—1991,1999—2006。发现研究区在1945 年之前 干旱频发,且持续时间较长。在1945 年之后,持续性干旱事件较少发生,降水量有上升趋势。 神农山降水重建序列与由历史文献记录划分的洛阳和郑州二地旱涝指数及亚洲– 太平洋涛动指 数（APO）相关显著。序列中的干旱事件发生时间与陕西、甘肃、宁夏等地的干旱出现较为一致。 空间相关分析结果显示,重建序列和观测序列分别与CRU TS3.10.01 降水序列相关显著且表现出 相似的空间相关模式,表明神农山降水重建序列较为可靠,在一定程度上能代表更大空间范围 的降水变化。功率谱分析表明,降水重建序列存在2.69 年,2.47 年,2.06 年的准周期,暗示研 究区降水变化可能受到与海陆耦合相关的准两年波动和ENSO 的影响。