基于G1-VPRS-MIE多层次灰色理论的引水明渠运行风险评价

引水明渠的安全运行风险评价对减少和预防其在输水运行过程中的灾害发生、提高其在运营期间的社会经济效益具有重要的意义。为了对引水明渠在运行期间的风险进行合理赋权和评价,通过科学合理的方法构建了多指标参数的明渠运行风险影响因素指标体系,包括主体结构风险、自然风险、水污染风险、组织管理风险和运行调度风险5个风险因子子系统及20个二级指标在内的评价指标体系;运用G1和VPRS法分别确定各指标的主观权重和客观权重,结合MIE理论优化指标权重;根据明渠工程的运行特点,选取多层次灰色理论计算引水明渠运行风险值,并根据相关规范和安全风险评价实践确定风险评价等级。将该模型应用于引大入秦工程中,结果表明:采用序关系分析法(G1法)和变精度粗糙集理论(VPRS)并结合最小信息熵原理(MIE)的权重确定方法(G1-VPRS-MIE),不但避免了层次分析法过度依赖专家的主观经验、克服了粗糙集理论在边界刻画的局限性,而且弥补了主观和客观方法相结合的不足;对于指标权重的确定更加客观合理,既能满足所得权重的客观性,也能保证评估结果具有一定的解释性,同时能够减少单一权重计算的偏差;多层次灰色评价模型对于引水明渠安全运行风险等级的确定较为有效,并得出其风险等级为中等偏高,与实际情况一致。研究成果为引水明渠工程安全运行提供了一定的参考,同时可为类似气候环境的引水明渠区域规划、设计、施工提供有效的借鉴。     

黄海近岸表层沉积物中PAHs的分布特征与潜在风险

利用第二次全国海洋污染基线调查数据,考察了我国黄海近岸海域表层沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的分布状况、组成比例,并开展了初步的来源分析和潜在生态风险评价.研究结果表明,PAHs的含量范围从未检出至8294 ng·g-1,高值站点主要位于辽东半岛的大连湾附近海区,以及山东半岛北部的威海沿岸.在辽东半岛、山东半岛的近岸海区,表层沉积物中的PAHs以中、高环(4～5环)组分占据明显优势;而在江苏近岸海区,低环组分(2～3环)的比例明显上升.低环与中高环组分的相对丰度以及成对同分异构体的比值结果显示,各海区表层沉积物中PAHs的主要来源是各类燃烧释放过程,如燃煤、生物质、天然气和交通尾气等,石油产品输入的影响居次要地位.依据效应低值区间ERL的警戒水平,计算ERL商的平均值,从而初步得到各海区潜在的PAHs生态风险水平.结果表明,大连湾PAHs污染较为严重,各PAHs组分的浓度均高于ERL警戒水平,而苯并(a)芘甚至超出效应中值区间的境界水平ERM,显示大连湾近岸海区具有较高的PAHs生态风险,而其它海区的潜在生态风险则较低.     

近25年雅鲁藏布江中游蒸发皿蒸发量及其影响因素的变化

采用气候倾向率方法,对西藏雅鲁藏布江(下称"雅江")中游1981~2005年14个气象站年、季小型蒸发皿蒸发量及其影响气候因子的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:近25年西藏雅江中游年蒸发皿蒸发量在流域绝大部分站点均呈现显著的减少趋势,平均减幅为109.92mm,以夏季减少趋势最明显。影响蒸发皿蒸发量的主要气候因子日照时数、平均风速呈现显著下降趋势,平均相对湿度、降水量表现为显著增加,平均气温显著升高,平均最低气温的升温速率(0.52℃/10a)明显比平均最高气温的升温速率(0.23℃/10a)大,导致气温日较差减少(-0.29℃/10a)。因此,雅江中游年日照时数和平均风速的显著下降,以及年平均相对湿度的明显增加可能是年蒸发皿蒸发量显著下降的主要原因,平均气温日较差的显著减小和降水量的增加在蒸发量减少趋势中的作用也不可忽视。     

Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of environmental management studies. Severe gas H₂S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor understanding and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H₂S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan “Pu Guang gas field” as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up technique of puffs to simulate the H₂S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H₂S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind direction, and due to the obstruction of the mountain’s body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing condition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H₂S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.     

安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究

雹灾风险区划是雹灾风险研究的重要内容,对制定区域性的雹灾防灾减灾对策具有指导意义。而雹灾风险评价是开展雹灾风险区划的前提和基础。以我国雹灾频发区--安徽省为例,选择其主要经济作物棉花为承灾体,基于区域灾害系统理论和棉花雹灾风险区划数据库,在“E-H-V-R”四维评价基础上,提出了多技术手段和多方法相结合的“3（E、H、V）+1（R）”维的雹灾风险区划方法,编制了安徽省棉花雹灾风险图,将其划分为淮北平原区、江淮平原丘陵区和皖南山区3个一级区,10个二级区和19个三级区,为安徽省棉花雹灾风险管理和防灾减灾工作的开展提供科学依据,同时为其他区域和其他灾害风险区划研究提供方法和技术参考     

Environments,Risks, and the Limits of Representation: Examples from Nuclear Energy and Some Implications of Fukushima

This essay examines examples from the field of nuclear energy, including the 2011 disaster at Fukushima-Daiichi, through perspectives drawn from phenomenology, social systems theory, and constitutive communication theory. The essay argues that although prevailing approaches to nuclear risk analysis and risk communication seek to represent a world of preexisting phenomena, they also fundamentally constitute the world on which decision-makers, organizations, and communities act. Representations of nuclear risk are inevitably and problematically limited, with important implications for policy, practice, and communicative action.     

Places and People: Rhetorical Constructions of “Community” in a Canadian Environmental Risk Assessment

This paper addresses the issue of public engagement in environmental risk contexts through a rhetorical analysis of the key term “community” in a risk assessment of mining-caused soil contamination. Drawing on Burke's concept of terministic screens and method of cluster criticism, the analysis shows the divergent constitutions of “community” in the Sudbury Soils Study's official discourse and the citizen-activist rhetoric of the Community Committee on the Sudbury Soils Study. Tracing the verbal and visual clusters within each organization's articulation of “community” as place and people reveals how the official Study's technical-regulatory ideology of environmental risk and citizen participation is countered by the Community Committee's contestatory environmental justice ideology. These competing views of “community” are mutually constitutive in that the official Study's mainstream risk discourse establishes the terms for the Community Committee's reactive counter-discourse, thus limiting citizen participation mainly to questions of “downstream” impacts. Our rhetorical analysis of “community” suggests a generative method for understanding the complex power relations animating specific risk communication contexts as well as for potentially reinventing “community” in terms more conducive to meaningful citizen engagement.     

Mountains and Handrails: Risk,Meaning, and Responsibility in Three National Parks

Where we live, the relationships we maintain, or the experiences we have can tell us about the way we perceive risk and the responsibility for its management. Perceptions of risk and responsibility are particularly relevant in US national parks, where unintentional injury is prevalent, yet support exists for allowing risk exposure. If experiencing risk may be both desirable (e.g., self-affirming) and undesirable (e.g., injury-causing), what is its role in a national park? Moreover, what are the expectations for visitors to encounter or to avoid it? In-depth interviews with National Park Service employees suggest that desired risk is contingent upon the circumstances in which it is encountered, and the values and prior experience of individuals. Employees perceive visitors as responsible for avoiding undesirable risk through information seeking and awareness, but also recognize considerable barriers to doing so. Theoretical and practical implications and avenues for future research are presented.     

The Voice of Science on Climate Change in the Mainstream Turkish Press

This study aims to explore how the Turkish press represents the discourse of climate change scientists. This is achieved by analyzing climate change-related articles that quote scientists, directly and indirectly, in two Turkish mainstream newspapers (N = 132, 7 years). The Turkish case illustrates how scientific rhetoric is used for presenting climate change as a matter of concern in an industrializing country. The analysis suggests that climate science is portrayed as an un-discussed authority. News articles rely on data about the disturbance of species and the state of the natural environment to provide proof of global warming, by which they produce an implicit moral imperative. The articles also portray the worst threats and challenges—those pertaining to human society—as residing mostly in the future. We conclude by discussing the implications of the use of a projected future to convey a discourse emphasizing the alarming risks associated with climate change.     

西部水资源开发利用风险现状评价

我国实施西部大开发战略后,西部水资源开发利用问题变得越来越突出.为了弄清楚西部水资源开发利用存在的风险现状,本文在风险概念的基础上探讨了水资源开发利用风险概念和影响因素,并构建了西部水资源开发利用风险评价指标体系.根据水资源系统表现出多模态、突跳和发散的基本突变特征,论述了运用突变理论评价水资源开发利用风险具有一定的可行性,将突变理论引入到水资源开发利用风险评价中,对西部水资源开发利用风险进行评价.首先对各项风险评价指标按照重要性排序,并对各指标值进行无量纲化;然后利用突变模型的归一公式和突变模型的评价准则进行递归运算,最后求出各层指标相对风险值(突变隶属度),将评价结果与风险等级对照,综合判断和分析各层各项指标相对风险状况.计算结果表明:在西部12个省份中,各层指标的风险值差异显著,但是水资源开发利用综合风险值分布在0 66-0.92之间,总体上属于中高度风险水平,12省份风险从小到大排序为:西藏→陕西→重庆→四川→青海→云南→贵州→广西→内蒙→甘肃→新疆→宁夏,这一结果与西部12省份水资源开发利用实际状况相符,可以为西部大开发过程水资源合理有效利用和管理提供风险决策参考依据.