炼油装置运行周期评估技术及应用

炼油装置运行周期评估技术通过统计、分析装置故障数据,计算特定时间段装置的可靠性,进而获得装置可靠性随时间的变化规律和装置可靠性最差设备排序。介绍了该技术在某常减压装置的应用,应用结果表明,该评估技术为科学确定炼油装置运行周期提供了决策依据。     

常减压蒸馏装置改造危险因素分析及安全对策

应用危险性预分析法,对一套常减压蒸馏装置扩容改造施工的危险因素进行分析,制定出相应的防范对策,以确保改造工作的安全.     

城市水业私有化问题分析及研究

私人投资水业在今后一定时间内是解决城市基础设施建设的主要手段之一.它能够解决城市基础设施投资资金短缺的问题;实现基础设施行业投资结构多元化,促进体制改革;引入竞争机制,提高服务质量;引入先进技术与科学的管理手段,提高经营管理效率.本文首先介绍了私有化的概念,进而指出城市水业的私有化并不是解除政府保障基本水服务的职责,而是完成运营者到监管者的转变,最后以典型案例分析了私人投资水业存在着巨大的机会和风险.     

豫西地区降水资源对旱地粮食作物产量的影响与对策

本文论述降水资源是旱地粮食作物产量的重要影响因素,揭示了豫西地区主要粮食作物的需水规律和水分盈亏规律,提出运用地理风险决策、实行适水种植的宏观对策。     

海域有机污染物优先排序和风险分类模糊评判系统

本文提出了对区域性有机污染物优先排序和风险分类和定量评判系统：模糊评判系统。该评判系统以反映污染物的毒性，暴露水平和环境化学性质的７项碜数为指标，通过指标参数的标准化及模糊运算，获得有机污染优先排序和风险分类的定量结果。     

Attitudes to prenatal screening,diagnosis and research among pregnant women who accept or decline an alpha-fetoprotein test

The aim of the study was to describe the opinion of pregnant women who had accepted or declined an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) test, not only on AFP screening in general, but also on whether every pregnant woman should be offered amniocentesis (AC)/chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and an ultrasound scan for fetal malformations. An additional aim was to describe pregnant women's attitudes concerning continued research in the prenatal field. The study was performed as a questionnaire study in two regions over a 1-year period from 1 October 1988 to 30 September 1989. Results are based on answers from 3331 women who had taken an AFP test and 336 women who had declined the offer of a test. A total of 79 per cent of the women thought that an AFP test, 70 per cent that an ultrasound scan for fetal malformations, and 26 per cent that AC or CVS should be offered to all pregnant women. Fifty-nine per cent of the women were positive towards continued research in the prenatal field. Women who had had an AFP test were generally much more positive towards screening and research than women who had declined, who were generally against. Women who had left school without a high school degree were on average more positive towards the screening issues than women who had this degree. In conclusion, the results obtained in this study strongly suggest that women's attitudes are very dependent on how the prenatal screening programme is already organized in their local area.     

Chorionic villus sampling: Analysis of fetal losses to delivery,placental pathology,and cervical microbiology

A population of 1639 patients were seen for chorionic villus sampling (CVS). Embryonic death was identified at ultrasound in 5.3 per cent of patients. The number of patients undergoing CVS was 1551, with 1416 transcervical procedures and 135 transabdominal procedures. The most common indication for CVS was advanced maternal age. Spontaneous pregnancy losses identified by increased risk of pregnancy loss with increasing aspiration attempts. The total fetal loss for this population was 5.4 per cent with the pregnancy loss estimated due to procedure being 1.2 per cent. Analysis of placentae from patients having CVS and amniocen-tesis showed no differences. Microbiological assessment prior to CVS was similar to previous publications.     

杀虫剂环境风险评价工作的进展与探讨

杀虫剂使用量大，使用范围广，对生态环境影响深刻，其种类繁多，特性各异，毒理性质，物化性质及残留降解性能均与健康风险和生态风险密切相关。用一般的风险方法评价难以涵盖其危害的方方面面。因此，杀虫剂环境风险评价是一项重要而紧迫的课题，本文从理论，方法及实际工作等方面介绍了国内外杀虫剂环境风险评价的进展情况，分析了其特点和存在的问题，提出了构建杀虫剂环境风险评价整体框架的设想。以便通过环境风险评价追踪和预测杀虫剂对人群健康和生态系统结构与功能的潜在影响，从根本上预防和控制杀虫剂对人体健康和生态环境造成的危害。     

基于风险的检验在高温高压管廊蒸汽管道的应用

高含硫天然气净化装置高温高压管廊蒸汽管道由于不能停车,在现有技术条件下无法开展全面检验,存在安全运行的风险。简述了基于风险的检验技术的基本理念。讨论了蒸汽管道开展基于风险的检验的合规性、损伤模式及机理、风险评估方法和程序。通过综合考虑失效可能性和失效后果,制定最优检验策略并实施,解决了高温高压管廊蒸汽管道到期不能检验的问题,及时发现隐患并整改,确保管道合法合规安全运行。研究结果表明,采用基于风险的检验技术,既能节约大量的停车和检验维修费用,又能有效地提高重点设备管线的安全性和管理水平。     

气相连通罐组群罐燃爆风险定量评估技术研究

炼化企业气相连通罐组存在群罐重大火灾风险,需要采取系统评估、层层设防的思路进行防控。采用HALOPA技术,结合中国石化风险矩阵标准,建立基于风险的气相连通罐组重大燃爆风险控制准则、不同罐容的事故后果等级划分标准、各类保护措施的风险消减因子和燃爆事件可能性评估方法以及相关重要设计要求。案例分析表明,VOCs气相连通罐组群罐燃爆风险定量评估方法可对群罐火灾风险进行快速量化评估,可用于气相连通罐组的风险评估和工程安全设计。