废气排放量灰色建模新法初探

在研究和指出灰色建模常规方法理论缺陷的基础上,结合某化工厂废气排放预测实践,初步探讨和提出了将原始动态数据序列经过线性或指数变换,采用黄金分割法选取背景值的直接建模方法。初步研究表明,该方法较灰色建模常规方法在改善序列随机性、提高预测精度等方面,具有较明显的优越性和合理性,拓宽了GM(1,1)模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围。      

Adaptive peaks and alternative foraging tactics in brook charr: evidence of short-term divergent selection for sitting-and-waiting and actively searching

Some recently emerged brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) inhabiting still-water pools along the sides of streams are sedentary and eat crustaceans from the lower portion of the water column. Others are more active and eat insects from the upper portion of the water column. We provide evidence that this divergent foraging behavior reflects short-term divergent selection brought about by intraspecific competition in the presence of alternative food sources. Rates of encounters and interactions between individuals were density dependent, and encounter and interaction events were closely timed with prey capture attempts. In addition, aggressive fish made more foraging attempts per minute than nonaggressive fish. Aggressive fish were also either inactive or very active, while nonaggressive fish exhibited intermediate levels of activity. Growth rate potential, an important component of fitness during the early life stages of brook charr, was assessed using tissue concentrations of RNA and found to be highest for sedentary fish and for active fish making frequent foraging attempts, and lower for fish exhibiting intermediate levels of activity. Our findings support contentions that individual behavior plays an important role during initial steps in the evolution of resource polymorphisms. Received: 27 July 1998 / Accepted after revision: 16 November 1998     

Parental investment, potential reproductive rates, and mating system in the strawberry dart-poison frog, Dendrobates pumilio

We studied the effect of relative parental investment on potential reproductive rates (PRRs) to explain sex differences in selectivity and competition in the dart-poison frog Dendrobates pumilio. We recorded the reproductive behavior of this species in a Costa Rican lowland rainforest for almost 6 months. Females spent more time on parental care than males, and `time out' estimates suggest that PRRs of males are much higher than than those of females, rendering females the limiting sex in the mating process. Males defended territories that provide suitable calling sites, space for courtship and oviposition, and prevent interference by competitors. Male mating success was highly variable, from 0 to 12 matings, and was significantly correlated with calling activity and average perch height, but was independent of body size and weight. Estimates of opportunity for sexual selection and variation in male mating success are given. The mating system is polygamous: males and females mated several times with different mates. Females were more selective than males and may sample males between matings. The discrepancy in PRRs between the sexes due to differences in parental investment and the prolonged breeding season is sufficient to explain the observed mating pattern i.e., selective females, high variance in male mating success, and the considerable opportunity for sexual selection. Received: 9 June 1998 / Received in revised form: 27 March 1999 / Accepted: 3 April 1999     

Imperfect female choice and male mating skew on leks of different sizes

We present a model of error-prone female choice on leks, and investigate the effects of different degrees of error on the distribution of mating success among males present at leks of different sizes. At higher levels of error, the best male is predicted to gain a smaller share of matings, while low-ranking males gain a larger share. Males who are of high rank but not the most desirable on the lek do best at intermediate levels of error, since the top-ranked male does not then claim all the matings, but assessment is still sufficiently accurate for females to discriminate between high-ranking and low-ranking competitors. The effects of error are shown to be more pronounced on larger leks, due to smaller expected differences in mating value between males of adjacent ranks. This interaction between lek size and error suggests that observed negative relationships between lek size and mating skew need not be attributed solely to intrasexual competition, as previously suggested, but could also be a result of imperfect choice. Received: 20 February 1998 / Accepted after revision: 25 October 1998     

Variance in female quality, operational sex ratio and male mate choice in a bushcricket

Male bushcrickets, Kawanaphila nartee, exercise mate choice when nutrients are limited. Male mate choice is associated with a female-biased operational sex ratio (OSR) that arises from an increased relative paternal investment under nutrient limitation. However, increased male choosiness could be attributable to the fact that females vary more in fecundity, and consequently in mate quality, when nutrient limited. Our objective was to experimentally partition the influences of OSR (male or female bias) and variance in mate quality (high or low) and to assess their relative influence on the intensity of mate choice by male bushcrickets. Female quality was manipulated by controlled feeding regimes that directly affected female fecundity. We found that males and females engaged in sexual interactions sooner under a male-biased than a female-biased OSR. Males were more likely to reject females on their first encounter when variance in female quality was high. However, the effect of quality variance on the total number of rejections during a 4-h observation period was dependent on the perceived OSR. A male's prior experience of variance in female quality did not influence male choosiness. Our observed rates of mate rejection conformed well with those predicted from recent theoretical models of sexual differences in choosiness. In conclusion, our results show that the opportunity for selection via male mate choice is influenced by an interaction between OSR and the variance in mate quality that arises within nutrient-limited populations of females. Received: 5 January 1998 / Accepted after revision: 25 October 1998     

Testis size variation in the greenfinch Carduelis chloris : relevance for some recent models of sexual selection

Interspecific evidence that testis size responds to selection caused by sperm competition has been obtained from many taxa. However, little is known about the sources of intraspecific variation in testis size, although such variation may have functional significance. Variation in testis size and asymmetry was studied within and between eight geographically separated (and genetically differentiated) populations of greenfinches Carduelis chloris. The relationships between testis size and plumage brightness (degree of yellowness) and the prevalence of haematozoan infections were also investigated in three of these populations, as they related to the predictions of the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis, and Møller's hypothesis relating directional testis asymmetry to phenotypic quality. There were large differences between populations in testis size, with males from northern populations having larger testes than those from southern populations. Within populations, large testes were associated with larger body size and greater age. When the influence of these factors was removed statistically, males with large testes were more likely to be infected with haematozoan parasites, and had brighter yellow plumage. No evidence was found that directional asymmetry in testis size was related to either of these measures of phenotypic quality. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that males with large testes, while signalling higher phenotypic quality as revealed by increased plumage brightness, also pay a cost in terms of reduced immunocompetence, revealed by the increased probability of infection in these males. That these patterns were similar in three different populations adds further strength to these conclusions. Our results suggest that studying the sources of variation in testis size among individuals can reveal interesting processes in sexual selection.     

森林火灾地面扑救的最佳路线的计算

建立了森林火灾地面扑救方式(直接扑救、间接扑救和平行扑救)的最佳扑救路线的数学模型,设计了模型的计算机数值求解算法。给出了匀速扩张的椭圆形火场的一个算例,从其计算结果中导出的一些实用的结论与以往用解析方法得到的结论是一致的,以此初步验证了模型的有效性。     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

X射线防护服所需铅当量的研究与应用

铅当量是X射线防护服最重要的性能指标,铅当量的大小决定着X射线防护服屏蔽X射线的能力。X射线防护服的铅当量有不同的等级,需根据不同的X射线照射条件和工作情况选择使用。本文通过计算给出了几种常用管电压下防护服屏蔽散漏X射线所需的铅当量值,可为X射线防护服的使用单位或个人在购买和使用时提供参考。选择适合铅当量的X射线防护服,可以避免因选用的防护服或用具铅当量不足而达不到有效屏蔽X射线的效果,造成健康的危害;也可以避免因选用过大铅当量的X射线防护服或用具,致使作业人员过多负重,导致疲劳,发生人为失误,也可以避免造成不必要的经济浪费。另外,为了保证X射线防护服的使用效果,本文给出了X射线防护服的检验、贮存和使用等管理方法。     

高层建筑火灾最佳疏散路线的确定

高层建筑发生火灾后，在现场情况比较复杂的情况下，尽快地选择一条既安全、疏散时间又短的疏散路线，是室内人员快速、安全撤离火场的重要保障。在应用高层建筑火灾全风网网络模拟软件HRBFS模拟火灾时建筑物内烟流体积分数的基础上，结合当时人员的分布情况，提出了最佳疏散路线的算法。