基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员应急决策行为分析框架

为研究突发事件应急处置过程中关键官员的决策行为,充实面向高层官员的决策行为实证研究方法,提出基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员决策行为分析框架。通过设置情景、决策者、决策过程和决策变量以及变量间的作用关系建立框架运行理论内核,从情景选择到决策样本“生成→采集→处理→分析”各环节搭建框架支持完成高层官员决策行为的研究。通过某高层官员地震应急决策模拟演练实例,验证该分析框架的有效性。研究结果表明:基于“情景-应对”数据的分析框架可实现对高层官员决策行为的实证研究,可优化开发以支持更多元化的研究。     

完善与发展重大突发事件情景构建技术方法的核心问题

重大突发事件情景构建是近年在我国兴起的支撑应急准备能力建设的一种方法和思路,广泛应用于公共安全领域的预案体系管理、应急演练设计、应急体系规划等应急准备行动。但是,随着相关研究和应用的逐年深入,如何将其进一步总结、凝练,进而发展成为突破层级和业务领域的标准化风险管理方法是当前应急管理领域急需解决的问题之一。首先,从重大突发事件情景构建的重要性与必要性入手,总结回顾目前国内外情景构建相关的研究与应用现状;其次,在情景构建理论体系和应用实践总结的基础上,围绕“综合风险评估和专家观点的情景主题筛选”“基于专业知识和真实案例支撑的‘故事化’表达”“基于通用应急任务清单支撑的任务梳理”和“基于任务驱动的风险沟通机制”4个核心理念进行深入分析和讨论;最后,结合目前我国应急管理机构改革的情况,从情景构建标准体系的建立和基于标准的情景构建实践工作出发,提出针对性建议。研究结果可为重大突发事件情景构建标准体系的建立与推广提供理论基础和参考借鉴。     

LNG船舶港口泄漏事故情景构建及危害程度分析

情景构建理论是处理重大突发事件的前沿应急管理理论。提高突发事件的应急处理能力,是提前开展战略性研究和应急准备工作的一种有效的科学手段。针对LNG船舶港口碰撞发生泄漏事故,结合重大突发事件情景构建所需要的“情景-应对”模式进行描述,建立LNG船舶在港口卸船期间发生泄漏事故的情景构建方案,通过分析得到LNG船舶碰撞后发生意外泄漏后产生的火灾、爆炸等危害。此案例的研究方法对LNG船舶港口泄漏事故应急管理体系具有较好的参考和指导意义。     

Ecological scenario planning and the question of the best regime in the political theory of Hans Jonas

In The Imperative of Responsibility, Hans Jonas elevates the practice of ecological scenario planning in political analysis. Not only does he provide an ethical justification for ecological scenario planning, but he also uses it as a means to discern an ethical imperative for the technological age. Jonas engages in regime analysis while keeping before him a vision of the worst-case ecological scenario, a combination that is morally and politically necessary due to the colossal consequences of cumulative human actions. Jonas’s work thus provides a good, even necessary, starting point for examining the relevance of scenario planning for environmental political theory.     

基于情景的建筑火灾风险分析方法及CFAST软件应用

提出基于情景的建筑火灾风险分析方法,它通过3个步骤即起火分析、确定未来情景集和确定风险分析结果来计算建筑物火灾风险大小。从一个建筑单体出发,通过过程模拟的手段得到其未来可能会出现的各种"情景",计算各"情景"中的指标,通过综合分析得到风险分析的结果。并通过算例说明了基于情景的火灾风险分析方法的实现过程。最后通过分析北京市近几年的火灾历史数据、设定影响火灾发展的各种因素和CFAST软件模拟的手段,得到建筑火灾年期望损失率作为风险的度量值。     

21世纪源排放与大气CO2体积分数预测

简要介绍了IPCC在2000年3月正式公布的21世纪温室气体排放方案,利用一维全球碳循环模式及7种代表性方案对21世纪的大气CO₂体积分数进行预测.研究发现:21世纪,大气CO₂体积分数增长速率将高于20世纪,化石燃料源仍然是引起大气CO₂体积分数增长的主要原因;如果化石燃料仍为主要能源且它的碳排放量逐年增加,大气的碳吸收比例将不断升高,21世纪末大气CO₂体积分数可能超过1 000×10-6;只有积极开发新能源,使化石燃料源源强逐年减小,才有可能使大气的碳吸收比例下降,若进一步改善土地利用状况,21世纪末大气CO₂体积分数有望出现下降趋势.      

Disciplined Planning,Structured Participation,and Collaborative Modeling — Applying Shared Vision Planning to Water Resources

Participatory planning applied to water resources has sparked significant interest and debate during the last decade. Recognition that models play a significant role in the formulation and implementation of design and management strategies has encouraged the profession to consider how such models can be best implemented. Shared Vision Planning (SVP) is a disciplined planning approach that combines traditional water resources planning methodologies with innovations such as structured public participation and the use of collaborative modeling, resulting in a more complete understanding and an integrative decision support tool. This study reviews these three basic components of SVP and explains how they are incorporated into a unified planning approach. The successful application of SVP is explored in three studies involving planning challenges: the National Drought Study, the Lake Ontario‐St. Lawrence River Study, and the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint/Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa River Basin Study. The article concludes by summarizing the advantages and limitations of this planning approach.     

化学实验室的安全防护与急救措施

系统介绍化学化工实验室常见的事故安全防范措施以及发生事故后现场急救措施.     

Optimum Supportable Global Population: Water Accounting and Dietary Considerations

In this paper we develop a novel, comprehensive method for estimating the global human carrying capacity in reference to food production factors and levels of food consumption. Other important interrelated dimensions of carrying capacity such as energy, non-renewable resources, and ecology are not considered here and offer opportunities for future work. Use of grain production (rain-fed/irrigated), animal product production (grazing/factory farm), diet pattern (grain/animal products), and a novel water accounting method (demand/supply) based on actual water consumption and not on withdrawal, help resolve uncertainties to find better estimates. Current Western European food consumption is used as a goal for the entire world. Then the carrying capacity lies in the range of 4.5–4.7 billion but requiring agricultural water use increase by 450–530% to 4725–5480 km³, the range based on different estimates of available water. The cost of trapping and conveying such water, will run 4.5–13.5 trillion over 50 years requiring an annual spending increase of 150–400%, straining the developing world where most of the population increase is expected. We reconfirm estimates in the literature using a dynamic model. ‘Corner scenarios’ with extreme optimistic assumptions were analyzed using the reasoning support software system GLOBESIGHT. With a hypothetical scenario with a mainly vegetarian diet (grazing only with 5% animal product), the carrying capacity can be as high as 14 billion. Ecological deterioration that surely accompanies such a population increase would negatively impact sustainable population. Using our approach the impact of ecological damage could be studied. Inter- and intra-regional inequities are other considerations that need to be studied.     

Effect analysis of carbon trading on Economy-Energy-Environment system and calculation of reasonable carbon price intervals

This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constant elasticity of substitute production function.Under scenario settings under different carbon abatement targets,based on 2007 national social accounting matrix and related statistical data about energy consumption and carbon emission,effects on economic outputs,energy consumption,and carbon abatement are estimated and analyzed at both macro and sector level.By calculating selected novel indicators that compromise between macroeconomic opportunity cost and achievable carbon abatement,reasonable carbon price intervals are given for enhancing the robustness and liquidity of carbon market.Further,by decomposition and share-weighted methods,expected carbon abatement and energy price are measured and analyzed in details.Some results are meaningful for fundamental design of the future carbon market.Given constant energy utilization and carbon abatement technologies at the macro level,the higher the carbon price the more actual carbon abatement;the more gross domestic product loss,the less energy consumption.Accwding to the overall situation estimated for 2007 in China,the advice given is to introduce a carbon abatement target rate(R_c)of-10%,which is helpful to make carbon market stable against unexpected carbon price shocks between[6.9,35]/tC with less economic loss.According to Kaya decomposition,after introduction of carbon pricing,carbon abatement is mainly contributed by the effects of energy intensity(EI)and technical progress.Further,CT may help reduce energy consumption and induce transformation to a low-carbon energy structure.At the sector level,the introduction of CT could induce economic recession in all sectors,especially energy.However,the overall economic structure remains unchanged to some extent.CT will help reduce energy consumption in all sectors,especially energy.Overall utilization costs of the energy composite can be divided in two,market price and carbonrelated costs.Carbon-related costs mainly contribute to variation in the utilization cos of the energy composite;carbon pricing may help non-energy sectors achieve sufficient carbon abatement by pushing up energy utilization cost.However,despite achievable carbon abatement by the energy sector being relatively high,induced by carbon pricing,there is still significant potential for other incentive policies to stimulate further abatement,such as energy resources taxation and transportation fuel taxation,especially in the sectors of coal and transportation.Finally,some advice is proposed in regard to policy decisions and further research.