论性能化防火分析中的典型火灾场景方法

火灾场景的设计是性能化防火分析的基础环节。针对可燃物众多、分布不均匀且摆放形式常有变动的大空间建筑,可以使用典型火灾场景的设计方法。在总体阐述的基础上,结合某购物广场火灾场景设定的算例对该方法的原则和步骤进行分析。可以看出,根据火灾荷栽的计算和火灾蔓延可能性的讨论,得到火灾发展的变化情况和热释放速率曲线,能够为之后的工作做好前期准备,同时显著提高这项工作的效率。     

Principle of the worst scenario in the modelling past and future of biosphere dynamics

The “biosphere–climate” system is subjected to different influences (influx of anthropogenic CO₂ and pollutants, deforestation, harmful land management, biological species depopulation, etc.). Therefore, the vital question arises: “Can these influences lead to irreversible negative changes in the climate–biosphere system or a global ecological catastrophe?” The possibility of irreversible changes may be not very high, but one cannot ignore it. So the main aim of our investigation is to evaluate possible consequences of human impact on the biosphere focusing on irreversible changes of it.     

应急演练突发事件的情景构建研究和应用

近年来国家高度重视地方政府和企业的应急管理水平,传统的预测应对模式不能很好应对当今突发事件,而需要向情景应对模式转变。为了将情景构建技术更好的应用到应急管理领域中,本文研究并应用了应急演练突发事件的情景构建。首先,阐述了应急演练突发事件的情景结构模型;其次介绍了应急突发事件情景构建的步骤和具体内容;最后将重大突发事件情景构建应用到昆明市原油管道泄漏事故中进行分析。因此对于情景-应对型事故情景构建理论应用在石油石化企业生产安全事故方面具有重要借鉴意义。     

基于任务特征的电网企业应急预案体系重构*

为解决目前电网企业应急预案体系建设存在的内容泛化、管理成本高等问题,提出基于任务特征的应急预案体系重构思路,运用情景构建方法,开展电网企业突发事件影响场景和处置任务分析,得出7个影响场景、10类处置任务和38项子任务。结果表明:电网企业应急处置任务具有收敛性特征。通过应急预案与处置任务匹配,重构应急预案体系结构和预案定位,构建以通用性部门应急预案及现场处置方案为建设重点的新型应急预案体系,形成“通用性预案工具箱”,实现预案衔接“无缝化”、预案内容“本地化”、管理成本“聚焦化”。     

中国区域低碳发展的情景分析——以江苏省为例

本文以江苏省为例,旨在对我国地方层面的低碳经济发展(目标年为2020年)进行探讨,并通过设定基准情景(BAU),低碳经济政策情景(LES),以及进一步推进低碳发展的国际合作与技术转移情景(ICS)三种政策情景对江苏省未来中长期能源需求与二氧化碳排放强度进行分析,提出我国地方层面实现2020年二氧化碳减排目标所需要的发展路径与对策.研究表明,在地方和区域层面上实现2020年二氧化碳排放强度在2005年的基础上降低40%-45%的目标是有可能的,通过采取发展低碳经济的相关措施,到2020年,江苏省的能源需求将比基准情景减少28%,二氧化碳排放强度将在2007年的基础上削减50%,而通过积极参与国际合作和国际间的技术转移,将有可能将二氧化碳排放强度在2007年的基础上削减52%左右.     

我国煤矿矿山医疗救护工作的情景分析

在对我国煤矿矿山医疗救护工作进行定性与定量研究的基础上,运用情景分析的方法,识别了影响煤矿矿山医疗救护工作发展的8个关键事件：煤矿矿山医疗救护工作管理体制的建立、经费保障体系的建立与有效运转、政策的稳定性与落实程度、培训体系的建立与完善、管理信息系统建立与运转、煤矿矿山医疗救护机构的内部运作机制的完善、有序的煤矿矿山医疗救护工作激励机制、多部门支持机制的建立与运作。构筑了未来发展的3种情景：乐观情景、无突变情景和悲观情景,为进一步制定煤矿矿山医疗救护工作发展策略提供了依据。     

情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析

随着近年来自然灾害发生频次的增加与巨灾效应的不断涌现,人们对自然灾害风险分析提出了更高的要求与期望。然而,由于人们对"风险"认识的不全面与不系统,导致了灾害风险分析理论与技术水平的停滞不前。"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景"是我们对"风险"的诠释。据该定义可知,风险不仅仅只是着眼于过去,更重要的是要展望未来;风险不再只是历史灾难的统计,而是未来不利事件情景的分析。因此,"情景分析"成为风险研究的一项新手段,它不仅摒弃了传统方法仅着眼"过去"的局限性而实现从"过去"到"现在"到"未来"合理过渡的研究思路,而且摒弃了传统方法仅限于因子统计分析的局限性而实现系统分析的研究理念。以"情景分析"为技术手段,提出了情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析方法,旨在探讨对风险研究思路与技术的创新。     

Measuring and modeling nitrous oxide and methane emissions from beef cattle feedlot manure management: First assessments under Brazilian condition

Intensive beef production has increased during recent decades in Brazil and may substantially increase both methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from manure management. However, the quantification of these gases and methods for extrapolating them are scarce in Brazil. A case study examines CH₄ and N₂O emissions from one typical beef cattle feedlot manure management continuum in Brazil and the applicability of Manure-DNDC model in predicting these emissions for better understand fluxes and mitigation options. Measurements track CH₄ and N₂O emissions from manure excreted in one housing floor holding 21 animals for 78 days, stockpiled for 73 days and field spread (360 kg N ha^?1). We found total emissions (CH₄ + N₂O) of 0.19 ± 0.10 kg CO₂eq per kg of animal live weight gain; mostly coming from field application (73%), followed housing (25%) and storage (2%). The Manure-DNDC simulations were generally within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, differing in ?28% in total emission. Large uncertainties in measurements showed the model was more accurate estimating the magnitude of gases emissions than replicate results at daily basis. Modeled results suggested increasing the frequency of manure removal from housing, splitting the field application and adopting no-tillage system is the most efficient management for reducing emissions from manure (up to about 75%). Since this work consists in the first assessment under Brazilian conditions, more and continuous field measurements are required for decreasing uncertainties and improving model validations. However, this paper reports promising results and scientific perceptions for the design of further integrated work on farm-scale measurements and Manure-DNDC model development for Brazilian conditions.     

粤港澳大湾区典型固废综合处置园区能量代谢特征研究

我国城市固体废物种类多、来源广、产量大,不同固废处置方式不尽相同,但均面临能耗高、二次污染大等问题.本研究从物质流及投入产出分析视角出发,构建了城市多源固废处置能量代谢分析框架及其评价指标体系,并以位于中国粤港澳大湾区唯一的国家级资源循环利用园区为例,通过设置固废单独处置、固废物质协同处置和固废物质能量耦合协同处置3种模式情景,分别从投入、产出和效率3个方面对其能量代谢特征进行综合分析和评估.结果表明,从能源消耗角度来看,物质协同处置能源消耗高出单独处置27.54%,而物质能量耦合协同处置由于实现了余热余能内部回用,其能源消耗较单独处置减少了3.73%.从能量损失情况来看,通过物质协同和物质能量耦合协同,能量损失率从单独处置模式下的73.17%分别降到了65.82%和63.41%,其中废气赋存作为主要能量损失途径占比接近50.00%.从能效角度来看,物质能量耦合协同模式下,能源消耗强度比单独处置和物质协同处置模式下分别降低了11.54%和17.03%,但其能量循环利用率也仅仅只达到了12.22%.综上所述,加强城市多源固废集中化协同处置,可以增强其资源能源替代效应,降低区域生态环境风险,但各种低温烟气及废水的余热利用仍是未来我国固废协同处置下能碳双控的重要方向.同时本研究为城市多源固废处置能量代谢优化过程提供了一套可量化评估的方法和指标体系,将有助于促进我国城市固废综合利用行业绿色低碳循环发展目标的进一步实现.     

Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the character- istics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis （SFA） framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA frame- work and the qualitative analysis of technology advance- ment and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.