PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (PARMA) MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO WATER RESOURCES1

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autoregressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.     

浙江省旅游资源的分区与开发途径

根据地貌类型和旅游资源分布的区域，本文将浙江省的旅游资源分为３个大区，介绍了各区的主要自然风景旅游资源和人文景观旅游资源，提出了发展浙江省旅游业的几点建议和措施。     

SEASONAL PUMPING VARIATION EFFECTS ON WELLHEAD PROTECTION AREA DELINEATION1

ABSTRACT: Delineation of a welihead protection area (WHPA) is the key element in welihead protection programs for drinking water supplies. WHPAs are often delineated under idealized conditions using simple steady-state assumptions, which lead to an incorrect estimation of area and geometry. In this paper, we compare the results from a simple steady-state procedure commonly employed in WHPA delineation with a more complex transient approach that allows consideration of seasonal variation in pumping rates. We also introduce a transient procedure to delineate time-related capture zones using a numerical ground water flow and transport model. Welihead delineation is examined for two municipal wells in Tipton, Oklahoma, using a ten-year time-of-travel criterion. In the steady-state procedure, where we assumed constant pumping rates, we used GPTRAC, a semi-analytical model, and MOC, a numerical model. The capture zone delineated by GPTRAC is comparable in shape with the capture zone delineated by MOC but not in size due to the differences in solution schemes. In the transient procedure, we used MOC and considered the seasonal variation in pumping rates. The capture zones delineated in this procedure were larger than the capture zones delineated by the steady-state procedure using the same model. Further analysis showed that a higher drawdown was predicted in the transient procedure than in the steady-state procedure, which is the reason for larger capture zones.     

TREND ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT A general methodology is described for identifying and statistically modeling trends which may be contained in a water quality time series. A range of useful exploratory data analysis tools are suggested for discovering important patterns and statistical characteristics of the data such as trends caused by external interventions. To estimate the entries in an evenly spaced time series when data are available at irregular time intervals, a new procedure based upon seasonal adjustment is described. Intervention analysis is employed at the confirmatory data analysis stage to rigorously model changes in the mean levels of a series which are identified using exploratory data analysis techniques. Furthermore, intervention analysis can be utilized for estimating missing observations when they are not too numerous. The effects of cutting down a forest upon various water quality variables and also the consequences of acid rain upon the alkalinity in a stream provide illustrative applications which demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology.     

城市地震灾害应急管理区划构想

从国内城市地震应急管理研究现状出发，提出了城市地震灾害应急管理基本单元和应急管理区划的概念，讨论了应急管理区划与灾害风险区划的区别和联系，探讨了城市应急管理区划的原则和应急管理基本单元的基本功能，并对基于行政区划的城市应急管理区划作了示意图。     

县域土地利用影子规划初探——以山东省定陶县为例

科学的利用规划土地资源,取得合理、高效的综合效益,进而保障乡镇社会经济的可持续发展是中国探讨的主要问题。土地利用总体规划正式修编前,浅析了为解决定陶县当前土地利用规划指标不够而实行的“影子规模”规划的具体内容。     

黔中非农业土壤CH_4的地-气交换及其影响因素

利用密闭箱-气相色谱法在2006~2007年对黔中地区退耕荒草地、灌丛、马尾松林和阔叶林土壤甲烷的交换通量进行原位观测。结果表明:亚热带喀斯特非农业土壤是大气CH4的一个吸收汇,相同植被条件下,淋溶石灰土吸收的CH4高于黄壤,而不同植被条件下土壤CH4的交换通量则因土壤类型的不同而有差异。土壤CH4交换通量的季节变化总体趋势表现为两个吸收峰,主要的吸收峰在温度较低的12月至次年2月,另一个较弱的吸收峰在7月至9月。统计分析表明,当温度<10℃时,土壤温度是影响土壤CH4吸收的主要控制因素;温度>10℃时,0~5 cm的土壤水分成为控制土壤CH4吸收的主要因素。     

南太湖地区小型浅水湖泊自净能力季节变化研究

以南太湖地区小型浅水湖泊为对象,研究了湖泊水体自净能力季节变化的特征.结果表明,湖泊对高锰酸盐指数、总氮(TN)、铵态氮(NH4+-N)、硝态氮(NO3--N)、总磷(TP)、叶绿素a(Chl-a)的净化能力季节性差异较大.各水质指标春季和冬季自净效果较好,夏季自净效果较差的是NH4+-N和NO3--N,秋季是TP和Chl-a.湖泊四季水体有机污染较轻,TN、TP污染严重.TN、TP浓度条件适宜藻类生长,水体容易发生富营养化,磷为限制性因子.Chl-a浓度显示湖泊在夏秋两季处于富营养化水平,冬春两季转变为中营养水平.浮游植物的生长与暴发对水质有较大影响,并影响到湖泊的自净能力.影响水体pH值和溶解氧(DO)浓度的主要因素是水生植物的种类和数量,农田肥料流失和农村生活污水排放是造成水体中氮磷含量过高的主要原因.过量使用有机肥使得夏季湖泊水体中有机氮占TN的主要部分,其他季节NO3--N占TN的主要部分.主成分分析结果表明,影响南太湖地区小型浅水湖泊自净能力的3个主成分分别为浮游植物因子(水温、pH、高锰酸盐指数和Chl-a)、农田排水因子(pH、DO和TN)和营养因子(TN和TP).聚类分析结果表明,3个湖泊11个采样点4个季节的水质可聚为两大类,春秋冬季为一类,夏季为一类,这一结果是受温度变化及农田排水所致.利用水温和pH拟合出用于计算湖泊水体中的高锰酸盐指数、TN、TP、Chl-a的线性方程,提高了现场快速预测能力.     

季节性Kendall检验法在黄坛水库水质趋势分析中的应用

根据2003~2010年的黄坛水库水质监测数据,选取有代表性的溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、五日生化需氧量、总磷、氨氮和总氮6项指标,运用季节性Kendall检验法对黄坛水库水质变化趋势进行分析,结果表明:黄坛水库水质的高锰酸盐指数呈高度显著下降趋势,五日生化需氧量、总磷和氨氮呈显著下降趋势,溶解氧和总氮无明显变化趋势。     

基于生态功能区划的县域可持续发展研究

生态功能区划的根本目的是服务于区域经济社会的可持续发展,但目前国内外有关区域内小尺度生态功能区划与经济发展相协调方面的研究很少。结合河南省济源市的实例,提出济源市5个生态功能区的区划方案,并以生态功能区划为基础,针对县域小尺度范围内各生态功能区分别确定优化开发、重点开发、限制开发和禁止开发4个类型,确定不同生态功能区的经济发展方向。