A practical real option methodology for the evaluation of farm-in/out joint venture agreements in mineral exploration

Although the “real option valuation” (ROV) methodology offers extremely valuable insights in optimising investment decisions in the face of uncertainty, its practical acceptance in the mining industry has until recently been slow because of its perceived computational complexity. Recent conceptual advances in the use of binomial lattices and software developments in the areas of decision trees and dynamic programming, have significantly simplified ROV analysis and made it of practical application in day-to-day financial evaluations and decisions involving uncertainty. This paper provides general background on the ROV methodology and an example of how a typical farm-in/out agreement, as a preliminary to the establishment of a joint venture (JV), can be valued as a series of sequential and compound real options. For illustrative and quality assurance purposes, a simple farm-in/out agreement is valued from the point of view of the party acquiring equity in the project (the farm-inee) using two distinct methods, i.e. (a) a binomial lattice and (b) a decision tree in combination with binomial stochastic processes, in both cases neutralising risk using the user-friendly “risk-neutral probability”. The fact that exactly the same ROV is obtained by both methods provides confidence in the modified decision tree approach, which opens up the capacity to value the more complex sequential/compound real options inherent in real-life farm-in/out agreements. The model is then modified to incorporate a number of realistic contractual conditions often encountered in typical exploration and mining farm-in/out deals. The paper demonstrates how the increased complexity of the model can be relatively easily addressed using a decision tree with dynamic programming capability.     

装修改造对结构整体安全性影响分析

归纳了危害结构安全的主要装修改造行为,提出装修改造对结构安全性影响应以整体结构为研究对象,分析结构整体抗力的变化。以实际工程为例,对装修改造前后建筑结构进行设计复核,重点分析了建筑荷载增加、承重墙窗下墙拆除对结构安全性的影响。指出在各种装修因素综合作用下,结构承重体系发生改变,尤其是抗震薄弱构件的出现,使结构整体抗震能力大大降低。提出保证建筑结构安全性的合理化建议,对防止突发性灾害具有重要意义。     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.     

大型渡槽结构动力学研究进展

大型渡槽是灌区生命线工程中的关键性建筑物,其在地震及风载作用下的安全性已是渡槽建设的瓶劲,也是国内外研究的热点。渡槽结构的抗震、减震和抗风技术的核心是渡槽结构动力学的问题,而渡槽结构动力学系属流固耦合(FSI)系统的动力学范畴。在已有研究的基础上,首先对渡槽结构FSI系统模型的研究进行了总结和评述;然后简述了渡槽结构动力特性和响应的求解技术以及抗震、隔震、减震与抗风技术的研究概况;最后总结了渡槽结构动力学的研究进展,提出了该学科进一步研究的内容和方法。     

基于Pushover方法的中小学砌体结构抗震性能评估

针对中小学砌体结构教学楼的受力特点,提出横墙和开洞纵墙的等代框架模型,分析了模型的抗弯、抗剪和轴向刚度计算方法;结合国内外对钢筋混凝土结构性能水平的划分标准,将砌体结构的性能水平划分为正常使用、中等破坏和生命安全三个阶段,并通过对大量砌体墙片试验数据的统计,得出其各性能水平对应的层间位移角限值。最后利用所提模型对一砌体结构教学楼进行Pushover分析,将其实际层间位移与所提性能指标进行比较,结果表明结构在不同地震水平下均满足预定的性能目标。     

锈蚀钢结构连接节点抗震性能研究进展

基于材料与连接构件层面,总结了近年来国内外既有试验研究及理论分析成果,主要包括腐蚀后的标准试件的单调拉伸、滞回性能退化分析,以及梁柱节点、框架结构的抗震性能研究,并给出了相应的力学性能退化模型,通过进行总结及对比分析后,为复杂环境下工程钢结构给出研究方向,同时也对我国工程结构的设计方法提供理论指导和参考依据。     

南水北调大型渡槽结构抗震安全性研究

阐述了南水北调中大型渡槽的抗震问题,分别介绍了基于常微分方程求解器(ODE)和有限元方法的大型渡槽动力计算模型、动力特性分析和设置铅芯橡胶支座(LRB)的隔震分析。研究表明,基于ODE求解器的解析和半解析方法有很好的精度和可靠性,可用于大型渡槽的初步设计。结合所得的研究成果,对南水北调的渡槽抗震提出了合理化建议。     

石窟文物病害成因分析及其对策研究

本文在概述石窟寺主要病害的基础上，结合典型灾例，从气象气候因素、地震活动、水文特征、环境工程地质条件、石窟寺结构和龛内文物自身的特殊性以及人类社会行为因素等６个方面详细分析了石窟文物病害形成的内部作用因素和外部环境条件，强调了综合减灾的重要性，并提出了相应的减灾对策。本文旨在为石窟寺的科学保护和文物修复工作提供理论基础和实践依据     

结构物震害预测的灰色贝叶斯方法

本文提出了一种结构物震害预测的新方法。该方法棋于贝叶斯理论和灰色系统理论，可以充分考虑到某类结构物震害所表现出的共性和某一特写结构物所具有的特殊性，能作出较全面的反映结构物实际状况的震害预测。     

香港海沙资源的勘探开发与管理

海沙开采已成为仅次于油气开采的世界第二重要海洋开采业。1980年代以来,香港政府投资1.7×10⁸港元为寻找海岸围垦填料进行了一系列的海沙勘探活动,在1828km²香港水域发现22个地点海沙资源储量7.4×10⁸m³,其中9个地点4.2×10⁸m³储量因覆盖层较厚或污染严重或海区环境特别敏感等原因被暂时搁置。1990～2002年共开采海沙2.7×10⁸m³,为形成2100hm²新土地的多项围垦工程提供了约一半的填料。基于地球物理勘探和钻探资料建立了香港海域第四纪层序和海沙产状地质模型,发现和证实了含气沉积物地震剖面的声波浑浊现象。香港政府对海沙资源进行统一勘探和统一管理,强调海沙开采的环境和生态影响评估,利用废弃的海床挖沙坑回填倾废的非污染海泥和受污染海泥。我国内地海沙勘探管理可以从中取得借鉴。