重症急性胰腺炎手术治疗的护理进展

本文对重症急性胰腺炎患者手术治疗的护理进展进行简要总结，以求对重症急性胰腺炎患者手术治疗中的护理工作提供参考．     

NEW DIRECTIONS IN FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Over the last 30 years, average annual riverine flood damages have exceed $2 billion. Damages associated with the Mississippi River Flood of 1993 exceeded $12 billion and these costs do not include the non-quantifiable, human impacts of this disaster. In a report submitted to the White House in June 1994, a federal interagency floodplain management review committee proposed better ways to manage the nation's floodplains. The committee indicated that the 1993 Mississippi River flood was the result of a significant hydrometeorological event, that federal flood control efforts in the Mississippi basin had prevented nearly $20 billion in potential damages, and that, in spite of federal flood damage reduction efforts, throughout the nation people and property remain at risk to inevitable future flooding. It recommended that the division of decision and cost-sharing responsibilities among federal, state and local governments be more clearly defined, and that the nation adopt a strategy of, sequentially, avoiding inappropriate use of the flood-plain, minimizing vulnerability to damage through both nonstruc-tural and structural means, and mitigating damages as they occur. The report did not call for abandonment of human use of the flood-plain but argued for full consideration of the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits of all future floodplain activity.     

REGION OF INFLUENCE REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATING THE 50-YEAR FLOOD AT UNGAGED SITES1

ABSTRACT: Five methods of developing regional regression models to estimate flood characteristics at ungaged sites in Arkansas are examined. The methods differ in the manner in which the State is divided into subregions. Each successive method (A to E) is computationally more complex than the previous method. Method A makes no subdivision. Methods B and C define two and four geographic subregions, respectively. Method D uses cluster/discriminant analysis to define subregions on the basis of similarities in watershed characteristics. Method E, the new region of influence method, defines a unique subregion for each ungaged site. Split-sample results indicate that, in terms of root-mean-square error, method E (38 percent error) is best. Methods C and D (42 and 41 percent error) were in a virtual tie for second, and methods B (44 percent error) and A (49 percent error) were fourth and fifth best.     

USE OF HISTORIC FLOOD INFORMATION IN ESTIMATING FLOOD PEAKS ON UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

Regional procedures to estimate flood magnitudes for ungaged watersheds typically ignore available site-specific historic flood information such as high water marks and the corresponding flow estimates, otherwise referred to as limited site-specific historic (LSSH) flood data. A procedure to construct flood frequency curves on the basis of LSSH flood observations is presented. Simple inverse variance weighting is employed to systematically combine flood estimates obtained from the LSSH data base with those from a regional procedure to obtain improved estimtes of flood peaks on the ungaged watershed. For the region studied, the variance weighted estimates of flow had a lower logarithmic standard error than either the regional or the LSSH flow estimates, when compared to the estimates determined by three standard distributions for gaged watersheds investigated in the development of the methodology. Use of the simple inverse variance weighting procedure is recommended when “reliable” estimates of LSSH floods for the ungaged site are available.     

Flood problems in Bangladesh: Is there an indigenous solution?

Bangladesh, situated on the delta of the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna rivers, experiences two distinct types of inundations: (a) river floods resulting from excessive runoff contributed by monsoon precipitation and (b) coastal floods induced by storm surges of tropical cyclones. The river floods are normal annual events and human settlements and agricultural practices have adapted admirably well to their regimes. Abnormal floods that occur once in every few years cause serious damage to crops and properties. To minimize flood losses, a number of modern engineering projects have been constructed within Bangladesh. However, the successful solution of the problem would probably require some international collaboration for basinwide unified systems planning, since large parts of the drainage basins of Bangladesh lie beyond its borders. In the absence of such collaboration, internal resources should be utilized for the construction of smaller public projects, such aspolders, and for encouraging and reinforcing various types of indigenous adjustments to floods. There are very few successful indigenous adjustments to coastal floods. Most of the structural solutions, such as community shelters and higher embankments, are expensive public projects that are probably beyond the means of the internal resources of the country.     

EXPERIMENTAL MARVIN WINDSHIELD EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION RECORDS IN LEADVILLE,COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of the Leadville, Colorado, precipitation records that include a reported record-breaking storm (and flood) at higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains has indicated that the use of an experimental Marvin windshield (designed to decrease the effects of wind on precipitation-gage catchment of snow during winter) resulted in substantially overregistered summer precipitation for 1919 to 1938. The July monthly precipitation for these years was over-registered by an average of 157 percent of the long-term July monthly precipitation at Leadville. The cause of the overregistration of precipitation was the almost 4-foot-top-diameter cone-shaped windshield that had the effect of “funneling” hail and rain splash into the rain gage. Other nearby precipitation gages, which did not use this Marvin windshield, did not have this trend of increased precipitation for the same period. Streamflow records from the Leadville area also do not indicate an increase in streamfiow from 1919 to 1938. The storm of July 27, 1937, considered one of the few, large, intense rainstorms at higher elevations, had a recorded precipitation of total 4.34 inches (4.26 inches in 1 hour). Streamflow-gaging-station records indicate that only 0.09 inch of storm runoff occurred. Paleoflood investigations of channels in the Leadville area and old newspaper accounts also indicate no substantial flood from this storm. This study indicates that the 1937 storm probably totaled about 1.7 inches of precipitation, much of which occurred as hail.     

杭州市静稳天气指数构建及应用研究

采用杭州市近7年的气象与环保监测资料,综合考虑2 m相对湿度、10 m水平风速、日均海平面气压、24 h变压、24 h变温、低层逆温等气象因子,通过历史样本统计划分阈值范围再权重求和的方法,构建了静稳天气指数（SWI）.经过实况回算检验,分析所建指数与污染天气的对应关系,并应用到重污染天气成因分析、空气质量预报和污染减排评估等方面.结果表明：①SWI可以综合反映大气静稳程度,与PM_2.5浓度有较好对应关系,SWI越大越容易出现污染天气,SWI大值最易出现在冬季,其次为秋季和春季,夏季主要污染物往往是臭氧,不易发生中度以上的污染天气.②SWI可用于判断杭州秋冬季重度及以上污染天气的成因,平均而言SWI<6.7时不易出现重度及以上污染;若SWI<6.7时仍出现重污染天气,可判断主导风向上游的外来污染物输入是引起重污染的主要原因,根据前期SWI的相对大小可判断有无叠加前期本地污染物积累;若SWI持续大于6.7且出现重度及以上污染天气,可判断由大气静稳而产生的本地污染物堆积是主要成因.③依据预报数据计算的SWI对空气质量分级预报有较好的参考价值,在短期和中期预报时效内均有表现力.④将SWI应用到G20会议期间污染减排效果评估中发现,在气象条件静稳程度相当时,减排措施有效降低了污染程度.     

Assessment of future scenarios of climate and land-use changes in the IMPRINTS test-bed areas

The main objective of this work is to identify and evaluate the potential impacts produced by climate and land-use changes in six European test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d’Anduze, Linth, Verzasca and Sambuco). Data to build future scenarios that can modify the different basins’ flash flood and debris flow risk level has been analyzed in this paper. High resolution climate scenarios have been obtained from several European projects and/or National initiatives, depending on each case. Climatic variables have been widely analyzed, with a special focus on extreme precipitation. Typical generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions have been fitted to observed and projected rainfall data to assess impacts in the frequency distributions of extreme rainfall up to 2100. Regarding climate, the main conclusion is the importance of using data at the maximum spatial and temporal resolution applying downscaling methodologies adapted to basin scale (test-bed areas ranging from approx 200 to 5000 km²) and oriented to obtain extreme rainfall values.In general, high variability has been detected, obtaining very different results for the different models and scenarios. Data corrections may lead to better representations of present situations and, therefore, more reliable future projections, but currently some of them are not suitable for extreme precipitation assessment.Regarding land-use changes, a cellular automata-based model has been used (MOLAND) to simulate the 2000–2040 period taking the CORINE land-use dataset as input data. Llobregat, Guadalhorce and Gardon d’Anduze basins have been identified as potentially interesting for simulating urban land-use dynamics due to the existence of important urban areas within their limits. The assessment of the rural land-use changes has been carried out using the results from the EURURALIS project (2000–2030 period), available for all the basins.The results of this paper are framed in the FP7 project IMPRINTS that has the aim of analyzing impacts of future changes to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures and, in general, to improve the application of the EC Flood Risk Management Directive.     

沿海省区洪灾脆弱性空间变化的初步探究

目前,脆弱性评估主要有建立指标体系、依据历史灾情和建立灾损曲线三种方法。选取国内评价洪灾脆弱性的典型指标构建指标体系,并采用主成分分析方法从原始数据中提取占总方差85．614％的3个主成分来分析影响洪灾脆弱性的主要因素,并通过聚类分析的方法来反映沿海省区洪灾脆弱性的空间变化。结果表明：人均产值、城镇建成区面积、居民消费水平、人口密度和地均产值等是影响沿海省区洪灾脆弱性的主要因素。最终沿海11个省区根据脆弱性差异聚成4类。     

The views of experts and residents on social vulnerability to flash floods in an Alpine region of Italy

This paper reports on research work performed for Floodsite a European Community-funded project on the social aspects of vulnerability in the Adige/Sarca river basin of the Trentino-Alto Adige region, Italy. It identifies some limitations to the use of a fixed set of indicators, which fail to account for either local peculiarities or the intangible aspects that contribute to the shaping of social vulnerability. The authors employed a number of methods to investigate the opinions of professionals and residents on risk and safety, distinguishing between the individual and the institutional components of social vulnerability. Adopting a systemic perspective, they explored the interactions between these two elements, showing how they may give rise to unexpected phenomena. The 'safety paradox' and the 'efficiency paradox' are discussed, emerging when increased protection provided by structural devices and dedicated institutions translates into a lack of awareness and agency on the part of residents.