Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically Ne/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. 相似文献
Invasive rats are one of the world's most successful animal groups that cause native species extinctions and ecosystem change, particularly on islands. On large islands, rat eradication is often impossible and population control, defined as the local limitation of rat abundance, is now routinely performed on many of the world's islands as an alternative management tool. However, a synthesis of the motivations, techniques, costs, and outcomes of such rat‐control projects is lacking. We reviewed the literature, searched relevant websites, and conducted a survey via a questionnaire to synthesize the available information on rat‐control projects in island natural areas worldwide to improve rat management and native species conservation. Data were collected from 136 projects conducted over the last 40 years; most were located in Australasia (46%) and the tropical Pacific (25%) in forest ecosystems (65%) and coastal strands (22%). Most of the projects targeted Rattus rattus and most (82%) were aimed at protecting birds and endangered ecosystems. Poisoning (35%) and a combination of trapping and poisoning (42%) were the most common methods. Poisoning allows for treatment of larger areas, and poison projects generally last longer than trapping projects. Second‐generation anticoagulants (mainly brodifacoum and bromadiolone) were used most often. The median annual cost for rat‐control projects was US$17,262 or US$227/ha. Median project duration was 4 years. For 58% of the projects, rat population reduction was reported, and 51% of projects showed evidence of positive effects on biodiversity. Our data were from few countries, revealing the need to expand rat‐control distribution especially in some biodiversity hotspots. Improvement in control methods is needed as is regular monitoring to assess short‐ and long‐term effectiveness of rat‐control. 相似文献
Objective: Though motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) were the main cause of head trauma from road traffic injuries (RTIs), motorcycle crashes (MCCs) are now a major cause of RTI-related head injury (HI) in many developing countries.
Methods: Using a prospective database of HIs from a neurosurgical practice in a sub-Saharan African developing country, a cross-sectional survey was conducted for the trauma demography and clinical epidemiology of this MCC-related HI.
Results: Motorcycle crashes accounted for 57% (473/833) of all RTI-related HIs in this registry. The victims, with a mean age of 33.1 years (SD = 18.3), consisted mainly of males (83.1%), those of low socioeconomic status (>90%), and those aged between 20 and 40 years old (56%). MCCs involved only riders in 114 cases (114/473, 32.1%), of which 69% were motorcycle–motorcycle crashes. The HI was moderate–severe in 50.8%; clinical symptomatology of significant HI included loss of consciousness (92%), anisocoria (35%), Abbreviated Injury Scale head (AIS–head) score > 3 (28%), and CT-Rotterdam score > 3 (30%). Extracranial systemic injury involved the limbs most frequently, with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) >25 in 49%. The fatality rate was 24%.
MCC-related HI among pedestrian victims involved more vulnerable age groups (the young and elderly) but have lower mean ISS compared to motorcycle passengers (mean ISS = 23.5 [11.6] vs. 27.4 [13.0]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27–6.49; P = .004). In addition, compared to a contemporary cohort of MVC-related HIs in our registry, MCC victims were older (mean age 34.8 years [18.0] vs. 30.8 [18.4]; P = .002); had higher proportions of certain extracranial trauma like long bone fractures (71 vs. 29%; P = .02); and suffered fewer surgical brain lesions (25.5 vs. 17.2%; P = .004).
Conclusions: Motorcycle crashes are now a significant threat to the heads, limbs, and lives of vulnerable road users in developing countries. 相似文献
