Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

An investigation of double-glass-covered trapezoidal salt-gradient solar pond coupled with reflector

In the present study, a trapezoidal salt-gradient solar pond (TSGSP) has been investigated experimentally. The top surface of solar pond has been covered with double-glass cover in order to reduce the evaporative and convective losses from the top. This results in increase of temperature even in the top zone of the solar pond and leads to more volume utilization for heat storage in the pond. A reflector made of aluminium sheet has been used to enhance the solar intensity on the solar pond during sunny hours. A procedure, to determine optimum tilt angle of reflector in order to utilize maximum amount of solar energy at noon, has been proposed. The use of reflector enhanced the average solar intensity on the top surface of solar pond by 22%. The maximum average temperature of trapezoidal solar pond with glass cover and reflector has been observed to be 70.5°C. The thermal efficiencies of LCZ, NCZ and UCZ for the trapezoidal solar pond with double-glass cover and reflector have been estimated to be 32.73%, 23.22% and 5.30%, respectively. In addition to experimental investigation, the sunny area ratio of TSGSP has been theoretically computed and compared with the cuboid solar pond having same top surface area and depth in order to see the effect of pond shape on sunny area ratio. The average yearly sunny area ratio of trapezoidal solar pond has been determined to be 11% higher than that of cuboid one.     

重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价体系研究

深入分析了重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价体系的构建依据,提出了评价体系结构.首先根据全过程管理理论及系统论中的层次分析法,构造了重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力集,在此基础上结合冰雪灾害的特点提出了能力因素集.其次调研湖南省30位政府部门应急管理专家,根据专家意见最后确立重大冰雪灾害应急管理能力评价体系结构,为能力评价研究打下基...     

北京市大气颗粒物PM2.5,PM10及降雪中的汞

研究了北京大气颗粒物PM25,PM10及降雪中的汞.结果表明,北京大气颗粒物PM25中汞的浓度为024—179ng·m-3,PM10中汞的浓度为038—302ng·m-3,冬季PM25和PM10中汞的浓度明显高于夏季;北京大气可吸入颗粒物中的汞均以细粒子(≤25μm)为主,冬季细粒子中汞的浓度高是细粒子多且其汞含量高共同作用的结果,而夏季则是细粒子中汞的含量高.降雪中汞的浓度在106—162ng·l-1之间,降雪中可溶性汞为总汞的一半左右.     

Use of Landsat Thematic Mapper Data to Assess Seasonal Rangeland Changes in the Southeast Kalahari, Botswana

/ Management problems arise in semiarid rangeland that are characterized by marked wet and dry seasons because of forage deficiencies in the dry season. These natural vegetation rangelands can sustain livestock all year long when forage and senesced grass are available into the dry season. Seasonal range condition data are required to provide a basis for pasture management to help locate dry season cover and thereby minimize overstocking and degradation. The generation of seasonal data using Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery was undertaken to assess changes in natural vegetation cover in the southern Botswana Kalahari. Visual analysis of spectral reflectance curves, the development of spectral separability indexes, and conventional classification analysis techniques were used to identify and differentiate rangeland features. Results from reflectance curves indicated that most rangeland cover types could be preferentially distinguished using mainly wet season data, especially on the longer TM wavebands, and that range feature differentiation was more problematic on darker soils than on lighter soils. Spectral separability indexes (SSIs) confirmed that range feature separation varied considerably as a function of waveband and was more effective in the wet than the dry season. The SSIs also showed that range feature differentiation in both seasons was most effective using a combination of the chlorophyll absorpance band (TM3) and two mid-infrared bands (TM5 and TM7). Wet season data were more effectively classified in terms of range features than dry season data although some class similarity was inferred across the two classified data sets. The work shows that overall trends may be generated by comparing seasonal data sets, thereby providing an overall basis for dry season decision making. However, particular problems arise within the dry season data sets probably because of spectral similarities between shadow and darkened vegetation cover, thereby implying that further work is needed. KEY WORDS: Semiarid rangelands; Botswana; Kalahari; Spectral differentiation; Seasonal change; Darkened vegetation cover     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

硬化路面与温度场响应模型研究

硬化路面是城市热环境效应影响因素中较为重要的一个因素.笔者在研究了深圳市城市热效应的基础上,建立了一个三维动态模型对硬化路面条件下的温度场进行模拟.通过将模型的计算结果和在深圳的实测结果进行对比,发现2条曲线吻合较好,模拟结果十分接近实测结果.模型模拟结果还证明了硬化路面由于铺筑的材料具有较大蓄热、导热的能力,而且透水性差,因此温度升降都很快,对城市的热效应贡献大;城市绿化隔离带对城市温度场具有很好的调节作用,因此合理配置城市中的绿地对城市区域微热环境的改善能够起到很好的作用.      

药型罩参数对聚能射流水下运动的影响

目的 研究药型罩结构参数对所形成的聚能射流在水中运动的影响,改进水中聚能射流的运动特性。方法 采用多物质单元ALE法就锥形罩射流对水介质的侵彻进行数值模拟,分析锥形装药结构中药型罩锥角和厚度对所形成的聚能射流侵彻水时运动参数的影响。结果 锥形罩锥角大小及药型罩厚度对聚能射流在水中的形状、射流速度、加速度等有着明显的影响。侵彻体进入水中10 cm后,药型罩的锥角从30°增加到150°的过程中,剩余速度先增大、后减小,在90°时达到最高。药型罩厚度为1.5～4mm时,剩余速度变化起伏小;厚度为4～6 mm时,剩余速度开始大幅下降。结论 当锥角为90°时,罩厚为4 mm的药型罩所形成的射流在水中表现最好,形成的射流侵彻深度最长,侵彻水介质10 cm后的剩余速度最大,存速能力最强。