人群应急疏散模型构建及疏散效率分析研究*

为更系统地分析社会网络内预警传播对人群疏散效率影响,以江苏德桥仓储有限公司“4·22”较大火灾事故为背景,构建人群应急疏散模型,模拟不同预警策略应用下社会预警传播及人群疏散动态过程,分析不同情景动态演化特征。研究结果表明:高效预警策略确保多数人被预警、疏散的同时,会造成人群集聚性疏散,引发严重交通拥堵,需采取有效方法降低交通实时承载量,保障疏散速度,进一步提升疏散效率。研究结果可为完善应急疏散方案提供借鉴。     

民航旅客行李托运差异化安检设备联合响应研究*

为提高行李托运差异化安检系统安全性,基于安检设备的依赖关系,提出行李托运安检设备联合响应研究;根据旅客风险属性对其托运行李实施差异化安检,利用二维正态分布建立安检设备的响应分布函数,进行安检设备响应值的数据融合;将系统错误率作为评价指标对比设备联合响应与设备独立响应,分析设备之间的相关系数、报警阈值对系统安全性的影响,并借助ROC曲线得到最优设备报警阈值。研究结果表明:在行李托运差异化安检系统中,设备联合响应优于设备独立响应。研究结果可为民航旅客行李托运安检提供设备支持。     

铜山矿区周边农田土壤重金属来源解析及污染评价

为探明铜山矿区周边农田土壤重金属主要来源及污染程度,采集并测定了361个表层土壤（0～20 cm）样品重金属Ag、 Cu、 Pb、 Zn、 Mo、 Sb、 Ba、 As和Hg.利用PMF模型和IDW插值相结合的方法对研究区土壤重金属进行来源解析及空间分布特征分析.在传统物元可拓模型的基础上,引入Hakanson毒性响应系数修正权重系数对重金属污染水平进行评价,并将评价结果与Muller指数(I_geo)和Nemerow综合指数（P_N）进行对比.结果显示：（1）ω（Ag）、ω（Cu）、ω（Pb）、ω（Zn）、ω（Mo）、ω（Sb）、ω（Ba）、ω（As）和ω（Hg）均值分别为0.05、 19.32、 23.34、 62.89、 0.97、 0.87、 542.56、 8.88和0.07 mg·kg^-1,其中Zn和Hg均高出河南省土壤背景值,但低于农用地土壤污染风险管制值,研究区土壤9种重金属在空间上主要呈现岛状和片状分布.（2）修正权重系数的物元可拓模型评价结果显示,研究区仅有6.37%的表层土壤为清洁土壤,89.75%为尚...     

惯性测量组合减振系统动力学分析及实验研究

目的保证惯性测量组合(Inertial Measuring Unit,IMU)减振系统具有良好的减振性能。方法建立测量组合的三维模型,为提高IMU的解耦率,调整IMU和支架的质心,使IMU的质心与4个隔振器的刚度中心基本重合。采用Mooney-Rivlin超弹性本构模型对橡胶隔振器的橡胶材料进行表征,并在此基础上建立IMU减振系统有限元模型,对IMU减振系统的频率响应和冲击响应进行分析,并对IMU减振系统进行振动和冲击试验。结果通过调整IMU质心位置和支架结构,使各阶模态能量解耦率都在80%以上;通过频率响应仿真分析,IMU减振系统在X,Y,Z方向上放大倍数分别为3.072,3.12,3.17;通过冲击响应仿真分析,IMU减振系统响应最大幅值为70.1g。结论通过实验验证了有限元模型的正确性和减振设计的有效性。     

Social Dimensions of Urban Flood Experience,Exposure, and Concern

With growing urban populations and climate change, urban flooding is an important global issue, even in dryland regions. Flood risk assessments are usually used to identify vulnerable locations and populations, flooding experience patterns, or levels of concern about flooding, but rarely are all of these approaches combined. Furthermore, the social dynamics of flood concerns, exposure, and experience are underexplored. We combined geographic and survey data on household‐level measures of flood experience, concern, and exposure in Utah's urbanizing Wasatch Front. We asked: (1) Are socially vulnerable groups more likely to be exposed to flood risk? (2) How common are flooding experiences among urban residents, and how are these experiences related to sociodemographic characteristics and exposure? and (3) How concerned are urban residents about flooding, and does concern vary by exposure, flood experience, and sociodemographic characteristics? Although floodplain residents were more likely to be White and have higher incomes, respondents who were of a racial/ethnic minority, were older, had less education, and were living in floodplains were more likely to report flood experiences and concern about flooding. Flood risk management approaches need to address social as well as physical sources of vulnerability to floods and recognize social sources of variation in flood experiences and concern.     

Les Reciproqueteurs: post-regulatory corporatism

ABSTRACT

Reflexive governance can be understood as an emergent encapsulated trust-building corporatism where network participants are neither state functionaries nor market entrepreneurs but network reciproqueteurs. This paper argues that such reflexive network governance results in a post-regulatory corporatism (PRC)—a more adaptable, less formalized, and flexible mode of interest intermediation, policy-making, and policy-implementation than previous modes of corporatist intermediation. Functional differentiation processes engender ‘negotiated connected contracts' in rescaled space in between inter-regional assemblages, a mode of structurally coupling new social partners in the emergent transnational knowledge-based economy. This involves the building of new social capital of network trust-building manifested in the norms of reciprocity and reflexive law constituted as a new mode of protocolism: one associated with the social learning and policy designing necessary for ecological systems' autopoeisis, resilience, and sustainability. This paper conceptualizes reflexive network governance as protocolism in constellations of PRC and discusses examples from the area of environmental policy-making. PRC is understood as a new mode of negotiated rule-making: as a recursive protocolism of multi-stakeholder social pacts constituted by frame agreements and negotiated connected network contracts.     

Insiders and outsiders: local government and NGO engagement in disaster response in Guimaras,Philippines

This paper examines local government and non‐governmental organisation (NGO) engagement in disaster response in the wake of the M/T Solar 1 oil spill in Guimaras, Western Visayas, Philippines, on 11 August 2006. It assesses the response activities of these two entities as well as the institutional factors that affected their interaction on the ground. Local government and NGO engagement was shaped by multi‐layered, overlapping, and oftentimes contending government‐designed response frameworks. Within these frameworks, government actors played the role of primary implementer and provider of relief, allowing them to determine who could be involved and the extent of their involvement. The absence of formal roles for NGOs in these frameworks not only undermines their ability to work in a setting where such institutional set‐ups are operational but also it reaffirms their ‘outsider’ status. This study of the Guimaras oil spill illustrates the complexity and the institutional difficulties inherent in disaster response and coordination in the Philippines.     

北京市PM2.5-O3复合污染数值响应解析

为分析PM_2.5-O₃复合污染数值响应关系,基于2015～2020年北京市空气质量数据、气象资料和新冠疫情数据,分析PM_2.5-O₃复合污染事件在多尺度下的变化趋势.同时提出一种复合污染指数,在广义相加模型下分析数值响应趋势,并进一步引入分布滞后非线性模型,分别解析复合污染指数、复合污染事件和影响因素间的滞后响应关系.结果表明,北京市PM_2.5-O₃复合污染事件逐年减少,具有明显的季节效应、星期效应和节假日效应.复合污染指数与降雨量无明显相关性,与O₃和空气温度呈线性正相关,与其余解释变量均为非线性相关.同时大气污染物和气象条件对复合污染指数有明显滞后效应,滞后影响主要集中在1～3 d.高值的PM_2.5、 PM₁₀、 O₃、 SO₂和空气温度明显增加复合污染风险,中值段的CO(1～6 mg·m^-3)、 NO₂     

响应面法优化超声吹脱处理香兰素生产废水中的氨氮工艺研究

为了提高废水中氨氮处理效率,采用响应面分析法对超声吹脱处理香兰素生产废水中的氨氮工艺条件进行优化,建立了吹脱时间、pH值、超声波功率及气液比4个关键因素与氨氮去除率之间的回归模型。结果表明,各影响因素对氨氮去除率影响程度由大到小依次为超声波功率、气液比、pH值、吹脱时间。确定对氨氮去除的最佳工艺条件为在超声功率90 W,超声吹脱时间90 min,pH值12、气液比600∶1的条件下,氨氮的去除率达到91.60%,与预测值接近,表明拟合度好。试验模型可以用来指导超声吹脱法处理废水中的氨氮。     

GIS支持下广东水体污染与社会经济发展指标的关系分析

利用地理信息系统（GIS）提供的空间数据管理操作和空间分析功能，以广东省1998年，1999年水质状况为例，建立了河流水污染空间信息系统，以地区（市）为单位，利用统计方法建立了水质状况与社会经济发展指标的定量关系，并进行了二者的空间关系分析。结果表明，无论从统计关系还是空间分布上，水质状况与单位面积人口数目、人均工业总产值、单位面积农业产值之间都存在较为密切的关系。通过比较，本文指出了广东省水体重污染区人口密度，工、农业总产值的范围与分布，为分析河流水污染及其影响因素和变化规律提供了一种新的尝试。