煤矿瓦斯涌出时序预测的自组织数据挖掘方法

为分析煤矿瓦斯涌出复杂系统时间序列预测方法,提出自组织数据挖掘(SODM)与相空间重构(PSR)相结合的预测建模方法。首先应用C-C方法计算时间序列的最佳嵌入维数和延迟时间后进行PSR;然后以二元二次方程为传递函数,以嵌入维数变量为自变量,以延迟时间后的时间序列为因变量,通过内准则确定传递函数系数和外准则选择最优传递函数,并以最优传递函数的输出为下层迭代传递函数的输入,最后获得最优复杂度预测模型。算例结果表明:该方法对煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测的相对误差为-5.751 7% ~6.049 3%,平均相对误差2.145 7%,预测结果能满足煤矿安全生产实际工程应用要求。     

太湖流域安吉县城绿地系统水生态服务功能

论文对太湖流域上游区域安吉县城绿地系统的水生态服务功能进行了系统研究。在资料收集和实地调查的基础上,研究将安吉绿地分为居住区及单位附属绿地、公园绿地、道路绿地和防护绿地。研究表明安吉县城绿地系统具有明显的减少地表径流和净化水质的水生态功能。2008年,安吉县城绿地系统共减少地表径流400.3×10⁴ m³;削减雨水径流污染物COD 16.0 t、TN 7.91 t、NH₄-N 0.22 t和TP 0.29 t。绿地系统的水生态服务功能与绿地面积以及植被组成相关,在安吉县城绿地系统中,总截留降水和去除污染物最多的为居住区及单位附属绿地,其次为公园绿地、道路绿地和防护绿地。     

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.     

应对地震灾害山谷型城市空间布局的对策

应对地震灾害时山谷型城市空间布局表现出很大的局限性,而合理完善的城市空间布局对生命财产的安全以及震后救援是相当重要的。依据山谷型城市面对灾害时的空间特点,以生命安全为根本目的,依据系统观从微观空间、中观空间、宏观空间3个层面进行了探讨,提出山谷型城市空间布局一些对策来应对地震灾害。微观空间层面的对策重点在于逃生,中观空间层面的对策重点在于安全转移和避难,宏观空间层面的对策重点在于对外联系。     

中国工业SO2排放量动态变化分析

中国工业SO2减排工作的重点。经济增长、经济空间结构变化、技术进步是影响污染物排放量变化的三个重要因素。在分析我国工业SO2排放量、排放结构、排放强度等变化趋势的基础上,通过构建对数平均权重分解模型定量分解经济增长、结构变化、技术进步这3个因素对工业SO2排放量变化的贡献。结果表明：（1）中国工业SO2排放量年均增长48.7×10^4 t,年均增长率为3.2%,且2002—2006年增速加快;（2）分地区看,1991年以来,东部地区SO2排放量所占比重明显下降,中部地区略有上升,而西部地区所占比重增加显著;（3）单位产值工业SO2排放强度在研究期内迅速降低,年均下降幅度为8.4%,对减缓SO2排放量的过快增长起到了积极作用;（4）经济增长平均每年促进SO2排放量增长183.7×10^4 t,技术进步则平均每年使SO2排放量减少134.2×10^4 t,空间结构因素平均每年减少SO2排放量0.8×10^4 t。可以看出,长期以来,虽然我国的技术水平有了一定程度提高,但经济规模的扩张使中国工业SO2排放量持续增长,对中国环境压力形成了巨大压力,同时,经济总量在不同地区的分配对SO2排放量的影响也在不断变化中。     

状态空间法在省域主体功能区划中的应用——以湖南省为例

从资源环境承载力、开发密度和发展潜力等系统因素出发,确定了区域主体功能区划的指标体系,提出了基于状态空间理论的省域主体功能区划分的综合方法。以湖南省14个地级市(州)为基本空间单元,运用该方法进行了主体功能区类型划分。结果表明:除依法设立的各类自然保护区散布在各地级市外,属于省级重点开发或优化开发的区域主要分布在东部和中部地区,限制开发区则集中在西部地区。应用状况空间分析方法进行主体功能区划,能较好地反映区域的整体承载状况,为优化区域空间结构与布局,统筹区域可持续发展提供战略决策依据,并为我国主体功能区划提供理论方法参考。     

石化企业VOCs无组织排放源强的反演模拟

针对石化行业面源无组织排放VOCs难以准确定量的问题,建立了基于开路式傅里叶变换红外光谱技术(OP-FTIR)的面源污染源源强反演模型,并进行了现场模拟试验。试验结果表明,风向、风速、大气稳定度、监测距离、数据处理周期等都是影响反演模型准确性的重要灵敏度参数。以反演源强Q_P与实际排放量Q的比值(Q_P/Q)为量化指标,对各影响因素进行优化处理,确定了构建反演模型适用的边界条件。当各灵敏度参数稳定于适用边界条件之内时,Q_P/Q为0.85~0.90。     

How “open” are open spaces: evaluating transformation of open space at residential level in Adelaide – a case study

This paper examines the transformation of open space and how it compares to older residential development. A study has been conducted at the residential level because neighbourhoods have been a basic unit of city design throughout the recent history of urban settlements. Furthermore, the neighbourhood is a more humanly relevant scale of urban development. The method adopted for this research was a comparative urbanism by comparing old and new residential areas. This study found that incremental redevelopment of old residential areas through both re-subdivision and intensification of development on existing allotments has resulted in a progressive loss of open space. However, the study also confirmed that the current supplies of open space across all the study areas (old and new residential areas) are relatively similar. The main difference between the open space supply in older and newer residential areas comes down to the ownership of land (i.e. the proportion of public versus private open space). The study demonstrated that older residential areas with large allotments have experienced a significant loss of private open space – originally from 50%, to current levels of 23–30%. The paper concludes that there is a need for a holistic approach to the provision of public and private open spaces to improve the quality of life at a residential level.     

Uneven distribution of urban green spaces in a coastal city in northwest Mexico

ABSTRACT

Extent and distribution of urban green spaces (UGS) in Mazatlan (Mexico) are analysed using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Vegetated areas (2,270?ha), a third of the urban area in 2015, were reclassified into green spaces (GS), urban tree (UT) and open spaces (OS), based in the normalised difference vegetation index, relating them with demographic and socioeconomic data. UGS allocation per capita amount 55?m², mainly represented by the UT class, with the largest patches associated with low developed and very high marginalised areas, and also with very low marginalised sectors, while the lowest allocation correspond to medium and low marginalisation, highly populated sector, without significant correlations. Despite the USG allocation, it is required a better urban planning to maintain public UGS and to protect the local flora, threatened by the introduction of exotic, ornamental species (64% of UT), to guarantee the provision of ecosystem services to the population.     

Co-Creating community gardens on untapped terrain – lessons from a transdisciplinary planning and participation process in the context of municipal housing in Vienna

ABSTRACT

Urban gardening in Vienna, Austria, has gained a new significance over the last ten years. However, although demand is constantly rising and urban gardening is being marketed in many ways, a vast majority of the urban population still has no access to gardening and its various benefits. While community gardening projects in Europe are usually viewed as temporary, self-organised bottom-up initiatives on public or abandoned private land, this case study of the Roda-Roda pilot project shows that community gardening can develop and persist even when favourable conditions for grassroots community gardens are lacking. The vast green spaces separating residential blocks (Abstandsgrün) commonly found in Vienna’s municipal housing (Wiener Gemeindebau) have a huge spatial potential for gardening, along with a forgotten tradition of self-organisation. Using an action research approach, this paper describes two principles for a successful implementation strategy under difficult conditions. Starting with a top-down approach, an interdisciplinary project team implemented a spatial and socio-economic framework that offered a stable basis for participatory community-building. As they “climbed” the ladder of participation stepwise – from exclusion to decision-making and true self-organisation – gardeners gained knowledge, skills and the self-confidence required to run a garden and create a well-working local community. At a more general level, the paper brings a co-creative planning perspective to the scientific discussion on community gardening in Europe and offers a practical approach to making local gardening opportunities available to suitable target groups by tapping into unused spatial potential.