Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model1

Masih Ilyas, Shreedhar Maskey, Stefan Uhlenbrook, and Vladimir Smakhtin, 2011. Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):179‐195. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00502.x Abstract: Reduction of input uncertainty is a challenge in hydrological modeling. The widely used model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) uses the data of a precipitation gauge nearest to the centroid of each subcatchment as an input for that subcatchment. This may not represent overall catchment precipitation conditions well. This paper suggests an alternative – using areal precipitation obtained through interpolation. The effectiveness of this alternative is evaluated by comparing its simulations with those based on the standard SWAT precipitation input procedure. The model is applied to mountainous semiarid catchments in the Karkheh River basin, Iran. The model performance is evaluated at daily, monthly, and annual scales by using a number of performance indicators at 15 streamflow gauging stations each draining an area in the range of 590‐42,620 km². The comparison suggests that the use of areal precipitation improves model performance particularly in small subcatchments in the range of 600‐1,600 km². The modified areal precipitation input results in increased reliability of simulated streamflows in the areas of low rain gauge density. Both precipitation input methods result in reasonably good simulations for larger catchments (over 5,000 km²). The use of areal precipitation input improves the accuracy of simulated streamflows with spatial resolution and density of rain gauges having significant impact on results.     

A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss

With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3-16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts.     

小流域土壤有机质和全磷空间变异分析——以安徽省舒城县龙潭小流域为例

为了解土壤的地域差异性,基于地统计学半方差函数理论和GIS空间克立格插值定量分析了安徽省舒城县龙潭小流域有机质、全磷的各向同性、各向异性变异特征及分布格局.结果表明,有机质、全磷的半方差拟合模型均为指数模型,两者的分布都显示了强烈的空间自相关,自相关距离分别为642 m、435 m.有机质、全磷变异的各向异性都比较显著,有机质在0°、50°方向上变异程度明显大于90°、145°方向;全磷则在0°、145°方向的变异程度更加突出.有机质、全磷的分布呈明显的块状和带状,其中有机质中部含量高,南部、西部含量低;全磷则是南部、西北含量高,西部、东北含量低.     

建三江城区用地评价与绿地生态系统分析

根据现状基础数据,以及城市发展对土地利用的需要,对建三江城区绿地和土地利用状进行了分析与评价。通过对现有林地、水系生态要素的有机组织和改造,确定了建三江城区绿地生态系统用地规划目标和绿地生态系统布局,＂一廊、两环、三楔、多点、网络＂,为北方寒地城市建三江城区的生态宜居城市建设提出了建议。     

基于空间马尔科夫链的关中地区生态安全时空演变分析

生态系统内部和生态系统之间都不是封闭的,各要素间均存在着相互作用。利用已获得的陕西关中地区生态安全格网化评价结果数据,运用空间马尔科夫链对该区域的生态安全时空演变进行了分析,得出以下四个结论：①区域背景在关中地区生态安全趋同时空演变过程中起着相当重要作用;②不同区域背景在区域生态安全等级转移中所起的作用也各不相同;③一个区域生态安全等级向上或向下转移的概率与该区域和周围邻居之间的差异程度不成比例;④空间马尔可夫转移概率矩阵为＂区域趋同的时空演变＂现象提供了空间上的解释。实践表明,空间马尔可夫链方法为定量分析地理环境对区域生态安全变化的空间效应提供了方法依据,值得进一步研究和讨论。     

流沙湾海水中石油烃的时空分布特征研究

于2008年2月（冬季）、5月（春季）、8月（夏季）和11月（秋季）对流沙湾进行了4次采样考察,研究分析了流沙湾表层海水中石油烃质量浓度的平面分布和季节变化特征。结果表明,在2008年度,流沙湾表层海水石油烃的质量浓度为0~1.930 mg.L-1,平均值为0.080 mg.L-1,季节差异比较明显,呈春、冬、夏、秋季依次减小的变化趋势,冬、春季节海水呈现不同程度石油污染,夏、秋季节属Ⅰ、Ⅱ级水质,整个流沙湾海域表层海水石油烃的平面分布相对比较均匀。在内外湾分布上,冬、春、秋季节外湾大于内湾,而夏季节内湾大于外湾。流沙湾的水产养殖活动是其海水石油烃时空分布的主要影响因素。     

珠江三角洲土地利用变化空间自相关分析

通过对复杂土地利用地学现象的空间与时间上的综合表达和描述,可揭示土地利用时空结构演变的内在规律,可以为研究区土地资源的合理利用、优化配置和可持续发展提供科学依据。本文利用珠江三角洲1990-2005年的土地利用数据,采用空间自相关分析方法对珠江三角洲土地利用／覆盖变化的空间特征进行了实证研究。通过对研究区全域空间自相关、单变量区域空间自相关、双变量区域空间自相关的计算,表明研究区土地利用／覆盖的全域空间自相关较弱,土地利用和开发存在随机性。单变量区域空间自相关和双变量区域空间白相关在不同区域、不同时期显现不同形态,揭示了研究区内部发展的差异性。空间自相关分析方法可直观地显示分析结果,不失为一种深入理解区域土地利用格局和变化的重要和有益的方法。     

湔江冲洪积扇地下水化学特征及控制因素分析

湔江冲洪积扇是成都平原龙门山前冲洪积扇群之一,为研究其地下水化学特征及控制因素,2018年5月现场采集30组地下水水样.利用描述性统计分析、Piper图解、Arc GIS空间分析和离子比例系数等方法,分析研究区地下水化学类型与离子空间分布特征,讨论控制地下水化学演化过程的主要因素与离子的主要来源.冲洪积扇东北部区域多为弱酸性水,占13. 33%,其余呈弱碱性;地下水化学类型有HCO_3·SO_4-Ca、HCO_3-Ca、HCO_3·SO_4-Ca·Mg与HCO_3·SO_4-Ca·Na,均为淡水;主要离子空间变异系数介于0. 22～0. 91,变异性均为中等变异;地下水化学演化过程主要受溶滤作用的控制,人类活动亦有一定的影响,蒸发浓缩、大气降雨以及阳离子交替吸附作用影响效果不甚明显.     

环己烷泄漏事故模拟与风险控制措施研究

环己烷具有闪点低、爆炸极限宽等特点,一旦发生泄漏,着火爆炸的危险性随时存在。利用计算流体动力学模拟的方法对工程项目中环己烷的泄漏事故进行模拟及风险分析,建立环己酮生产装置的全尺寸三维模型并进行仿真计算,模拟了不同泄漏场景所形成的环己烷可燃气体云团瞬态发展过程及影响范围,并对建构筑物的布局对可燃气体云团的扩散行为的影响进行研究。研究结果表明,通过优化建构筑物布局,可有效降低该装置环己烷的燃爆风险,为企业相关装置的总图布置及环己烷泄漏的安全监控和应急响应提供有价值的参考数据。     

吉林省资源型城市可持续空间重构研究

以典型资源型城市吉林省辽源市为案例,探讨其城市空间结构的现状特征和空间问题;在理论框架分析与经验分析的基础上,从市区和市域两个尺度提出辽源市可持续城市空间结构的优化途径.