Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions

Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state‐and‐transition, species‐distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade‐offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision‐support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade‐offs exist between competing conservation objectives.     

企业安全生产标准化体系的成长性态诊断

为了诊断企业安全生产标准化体系成长性态,将安全生产标准化内化为企业的安全管理方法,基于过程管理的基本理论,按照行为特性与工作流程,从策划行为域、实施行为域、可信度行为域3个层次界定安全生产标准化的体系结构;其次,从成熟度级别、共同特性和通用活动3个构成要素划分成长性态层次结构;然后,将安全生产标准化的体系结构和成长性态层次标识为企业安全生产标准化水平的二维结构,提出基于模糊区间的安全生产标准化体系成长性态诊断方法.结果表明,调查企业的安全生产标准化体系成长性态诊断结果位于规范级,但存在不平衡问题,在评估与确立安全目标、安全培训、细化安全目标要求、交底与配备资源和可信度论据等方面诊断值较低,需要加以改进.     

乌梁素海富营养化状态的模糊模式识别研究

本文利用模糊模式识别交叉迭代模型对分布于乌梁素海各水功能区的21个水质监测点,2009年5月～10月的富营养化等级进行了模糊模式识别研究;并利用Arcview的空间分析功能,绘制富营养化等级识别结果的空间分布月变化Grid图。将富营养化状态识别结果及其分布区域与乌梁素海同期水质监测指标浓度变化及其分布区域进行对比分析及验证。识别结果与实际水质状况相符,验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于G1-独立性权数法的热带海岛环境真空断路器状态评估

目的 提高热带海岛环境下真空断路器状态评估方法的全面性和准确性,为高温、高湿、高辐照、高盐雾气候环境下真空断路器的差异化运维和状态检修提供有效的数据基础.方法 统计分析热带海岛地区电力设备的缺陷类型和原因,构建断路器的环境状态评价指标,实现真空断路器的综合评价指标体系的拓展.采用序关系分析法(G1)和独立性权数法组合赋权,实现断路器运行状态的综合评估.结果 通过实例分析验证了此真空断路器评估方法的可行性,G1-独立性权数法综合考虑了专家主观经验及指标数据客观规律,能够降低指标间重复性信息对断路器评估结果的不利影响.结论 G1-独立性权数法有效计及了真空断路器所处的环境状态,综合考虑了主观经验和客观规律,能够减小指标间重复信息所导致的指标权重误差,保证了热带海岛环境下真空断路器评估结果的客观性和准确性.     

鹤山气溶胶光学性质和单颗粒化学组分的研究

2014年10~11月在广东省鹤山大气超级站利用单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪（SPAMS）、积分式浊度仪和黑碳仪在线观测了单颗粒气溶胶的化学组成与气溶胶光学特征.采用Art-2a分类法将单颗粒分为9类：有机碳-硫酸盐/硝酸盐颗粒（OC-Sulfate/Nitrate）、元素碳-硫酸盐/硝酸盐颗粒（EC-Sulfate/Nitrate）、元素碳有机碳-硫酸盐/硝酸盐颗粒（ECOC-Sulfate/Nitrate）、高分子有机碳颗粒（HOC）、海盐颗粒（Sea-salt）、硅酸盐颗粒（Si-rich）、左旋葡聚糖颗粒（Lev）、钾-硫酸盐/硝酸盐颗粒（K-Sulfate/Nitrate）、金属颗粒（Metal）.从清洁期到灰霾期气溶胶的吸收系数、散射系数和单次散射反照率（SSA）显著升高,气溶胶消光能力增强,同时EC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒占比从34.8%降至31%,OC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒从9.9%增加至23.6%,K-Sulfate/Nitrate二次颗粒从8.5%增加至14%,且灰霾期OC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒与硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐的混合程度增强,因此老化的OC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒和二次组分颗粒对气溶胶消光系数的增加有重要贡献.在大气相对湿度从50%增加到70%以上的过程中,气溶胶散射系数和吸收系数升高,消光系数由326.1Mm^-1增加到362.9Mm^-1,SSA有所下降,PM_2.5质量消光效率由4.98增加到5.99,EC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒和K-Sulfate/Nitrate二次颗粒占比下降,而OC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒的占比由7.79%增加到14.29%,且OC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒中富含硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐,表明高相对湿度下老化的OC-Sulfate/Nitrate颗粒数目增多对气溶胶消光系数的增强有重要影响.     

南京市环境承载力评价及其成因分析

从资源、环境、生态3个维度构建指标体系,运用空间状态法测度了南京市2011~2016年环境承载力状况,并从自然条件、区域发展和管理制度3方面解析影响因素,对其成因进行具体分析.结果表明：尽管南京市2011~2016年间环境承载力状况有所好转,但全市整体仍处于超载状态,主城区超载最严重,其次是六合区、浦口区和江宁区,溧水区与高淳区相对较好.南京市环境承载状态受自然、发展和管理类等多种因素影响,水、土资源禀赋及气象等自然条件对环境承载力起到先天限制作用;人口、产业等社会经济发展因素对环境承载力进一步造成压力,且加剧环境承载状态的空间差异性;管理能力上的不足是重要的影响因素,其不断提高对超载状况则起到一定缓解作用.     

Aerosol optical properties and the mixing state of black carbon at a background mountainous site in Eastern China

In-situ measurements of aerosol optical properties were conducted at Mt. Huang from September 23 to October 28, 2012. Low averages of 82.2, 10.9, and 14.1 Mm~(-1) for scattering coefficient(σ_(sp, neph, 550)), hemispheric backscattering coefficient(σ_(hbsp, neph, 550)), and absorption coefficient(σ_(ap, 550)), respectively, were obtained. Atmospheric aging process resulted in the increase of σap, 550 but the decrease of the single scattering albedo(ω_(550)) at constant aerosol concentration. However, the proportion of non-light-absorbing components(non-BCs) was getting higher during the aging process, resulting in the increase of aerosol diameter, which also contributed to relatively higher σ_(sp, neph, 550) and ω_(550). Diurnal cycles of σ_(sp, neph, 550) and σ_(ap, 550) with high values in the morning and low values in the afternoon were observed closely related to the development of the planetary boundary layer and the mountain-valley breeze. BC mixing state, represented by the volume fraction of externally mixed BC to total BC(r), was retrieved by using the modified Mie model.The results showed r reduced from about 70% to 50% when the externally mixed non-BCs were considered. The periodical change and different diurnal patterns of r were due to the atmospheric aging and different air sources under different synoptic systems. Local biomass burning emissions were also one of the influencing factors on r. Aerosol radiative forcing for different mixing state were evaluated by a "two-layer-single-wavelength" model,showing the cooling effect of aerosols weakened with BC mixing state changing from external to core-shell mixture.     

南京大气气溶胶混合态与云凝结核活化特征研究

于2014年9月11~18日期间,在南京市气象局利用云凝结核计数器(CCNC)、气溶胶质量分析仪(APM)和扫描电迁移率粒径谱仪(SMPS)对气溶胶的分档云凝结核活性以及混合状态进行观测.结果表明,观测期间颗粒物混合状态以内部混合为主,76、111、138和181 nm颗粒物中,黑碳(BC)所占质量分数分别为5.4%、10%、10.7%和6.7%,而含BC核的颗粒物占总颗粒物数量的百分比分别为51%、57%、70%和59%,表明BC是大气中重要的凝结核,对大气颗粒物的数量有重要贡献.观测到的少数外混状态的颗粒物主要集中在111 nm和138 nm.76、111、138和181 nm颗粒物的临界过饱和度分别为0.25%、0.13%、0.06%和0.015%.降雨和灰霾对云凝结核活性影响较大,雨天、晴天和霾天的气溶胶吸湿性系数κ分别为0.37、0.29、0.39.气溶胶颗粒物的密度和云凝结核活性受化学组分影响明显,相对于晴天,霾天颗粒物中无机盐含量较高、有机物含量较少,对应的颗粒物密度较高、云凝结核活性较强.     

一座南亚热带中富营养水库夏季浮游植物群落的稳态平衡分析

于2009年7月23日~9月12日(共8周)研究了广东省大沙河水库湖泊区表层5 m水柱浮游植物群落结构和演替过程及其环境影响因子.降雨明显分为二个阶段,前4周降雨丰富,后4周降雨稀少;水体的透明度与水温也相应地分为二个阶段,但营养盐水平没有明显的变化.平均N/P为33,而可溶解磷浓度很低,说明浮游植物的生长受磷的限制较为强烈.浮游植物种类分析中共检到藻类64种,生物量变化为0.95~2.03 mg L-1,主要由绿藻、甲藻和蓝藻组成.1~5周浮游植物的总生物量变化较大,后3周总生物量变化相对较小.在整个采样期间,光角角星鼓藻(Staurastrum muticum)为第一优势种,弯曲角星鼓藻藻(Staurastrum inflexum)为第二优势种(二者约占总生物量的70%);在1~5周第三个优势种的种类和生物量有较大的变化,6~8周第三优势种为飞燕角甲藻(Ceratium hirundinella)且前3个优势种的组成和生物量较稳定(共占到总生物量的80%以上),群落结构处于稳态平衡状态.降雨带来的干扰是影响浮游植物群落稳态平衡的主要因子.当降雨的干扰结束后,浮游植物之间通过1周左右的竞争,浮游植物群落达到稳态平衡.     

南京江北新区大气单颗粒来源解析及混合状态

利用单颗粒气溶胶飞行时间质谱（SPAMS）于2015年12月1~31日对南京江北新区大气单颗粒进行了测量,共采集到同时含有正负离子谱图的颗粒747.8万个.结果表明,监测期间南京江北新区总体空气质量较差,污染天气占比为49.2%,SPAMS所捕获的颗粒数与PM_2.5质量浓度的相关性达到0.83,因此颗粒物数浓度在一定程度上能够用来反映大气污染状况,监测点主要污染源包括燃煤源以及机动车尾气源,工业工艺源污染占比居第3位,3种源的总贡献率达到63.5%.从整体上看,PM_2.5质量浓度的升高大多伴随着燃煤及机动车尾气占比的升高,EC、混合碳（ECOC）与OC在生物质燃烧、扬尘、汽车尾气排放、燃煤燃烧以及工业源中均与NO₂^-、NO₃^-以及SO₄^-有较高的混合程度.