考虑结构极限状态随机性的多维易损性分析

本文同时考虑结构在地震激励下响应的随机性和极限状态的随机性,将概率-凸集混合模型应用于结构的多维易损性分析。以最大层间位移、最大层加速度作为反映结构性能和非结构性能的两种工程需求参数,并视为符合对数正态分布的随机变量,两种需求参数的阈值被视为非概率凸集变量,分别建立阈值的椭球模型和区间模型,建立同时包含凸集变量和概率变量的二维联合性能极限状态方程;根据凸集模型和概率模型之间的相容性,提出一种混合模型下基于克里金模型的蒙特卡洛法用于求解超越概率的上、下界,得到反映超越概率区间的易损性曲线。研究表明:区间模型建立的易损性曲线较为保守;在罕遇地震作用下,不考虑阈值随机性会会低估结构的抗震能力。     

Development of double-variable seismic fragility functions for oil refinery piping systems

Seismic risk assessment of piping systems, as a group of vulnerable facilities in oil refineries, is mostly based on the single-variable fragility curves. However, it is well-known that the fragility curves, developed based on a single intensity measure (IM), are not much reliable. For increasing the confidence level of seismic risk assessment of piping systems, it was tried, in this study, to develop double-variable fragility functions by using peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) together as the IMs. For this purpose, the piping system of the ISOMAX Unit of Tehran oil refinery was considered, and modeled by a powerful finite element analysis program under various loadings, including gravity, pressure and seismic loads. For seismic analyses 157 set of three-component earthquake records were employed, with PGA and PGV values varying respectively from around 0.1 g–0.6 g and 10 cm/s to 60 cm/s. By using the nonlinear time histories analyses results, two single-IM fragility curves and one double-IM fragility surface were developed based on the probability of exceedance of the maximum created stress, considered as the ‘damage index’, from the allowable stress. The results indicate that using PGA and PGV jointly, as the IMs in the development of fragility functions, provides more reliable vulnerability estimations. For example, the single-IM fragility function gives, for PGA = 0.2 g, a probability of exceedance of 75%, while by using the double-IM fragility function this probability may change from 30% for PGV = 10 cm/s to 95% for PGV = 60 cm/s.     

公共建筑环境下行人行为特性及拥挤机理研究综述

介绍国内外对于公共建筑环境下行人行为特性及拥挤机理方面的研究成果,主要包括:自由流情况下的行人运动速度,人群运动的最佳密度,行人的年龄、文化、性别、退让距离、温度、旅行目的、运动方向和建筑设施类型对行人流速度和流量的影响,以及行人流的密度和速度关系。成果显示:各国学者在人群的速度、密度和流量之间的相互关系方面研究较多,所得的结论趋于一致;但对于影响行人流速度和流量的各种因素并没有进行深入的研究,尤其是拥挤情况下行人的心理状态和拥挤事故的相互关系。     

加工工业城市——常州市城市生态安全评价

针对常州市生态环境现状,利用"压力-状态-响应(P-S-R)"理论,构建基于城市资源环境压力、资源环境状态和人文环境响应3个类别的城市生态安全评价模型,以常州市2000—2007年发展过程中的人口,经济、环境等相关指标建立的城市生态安全评价体系进行评价,结果表明:常州市的城市生态安全总体水平在中等偏下,多数城市生态指标处于较低水平,影响常州城市生态安全整体水平的提高。利用P-S-R模型对于常州市城市生态建设和城市发展规划具有一定的参考价值。     

基于突变理论的非常规突发事件下个体行为状态研究

针对非常规突发事件下个体行为状态,考虑物质环境、社会环境和个体属性等因素,建立评价影响个体行为状态的3级指标体系;在分析非常规突发事件下个体行为状态突变特征的基础上,建立非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的尖点突变模型;采用突变级数法对4类非常规突发事件进行实例分析,得到4类突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度。实例表明,不同类型非常规突发事件下个体行为状态的影响度不同;重大自然灾害和公共卫生类型突发事件中个体行为所受影响最大,社会安全事件次之,事故灾难突发事件中最小。     

煤层条带开采整体安全系数确定方法研究

为评价工程中条带开采方案的煤层整体稳定性,确定开采方案的安全程度,基于强度折减原理,应用FLAC3D数值模拟软件,将工程实际与数值实验相结合,研究煤层条带开采对地表沉陷、围岩变形和破坏的影响,用安全系数对安全程度进行评价。提出条带开采整体失稳的临界状态判断标准为采空区之间及采空区至地表岩体塑性区域连通,并以地表最大沉降和顶板最大位移突然增大作为临界状态判断标准的验证条件,结果表明:应用强度折减原理进行数值模拟确定的条带开采整体安全系数与工程实际相吻合。     

Analysis for Chemical Characterization of Atmospheric Aerosols Application of X-ray Microprobe System and Double Thin Film Method

The X-ray microprobe system was applied to ultra trace characterization of single Kosa aerosols and non-Kosa aerosols simultaneously collected at Yasaka, Japan and TaeAnn, Korea. We demonstrated remarkable mass increase of heavy metals as well as soil components in individual particles during the Kosa event compared with the non-Kosa period at Yasaka. Backward trajectory analysis suggested that the Kosa samples were in the mixing state of mineral components and anthropogenic heavy elements. Double thin film method was applied to investigate the seasonal change of the mixing states of single sea-salt aerosols associated with chlorine loss due to the heterogeneous reactions between sea-salt particles and acidic gases. It was revealed that the percentages of both chloride-nitrate mixed particles and sulfate-nitrate ones were larger in wintertime than those in summertime and fraction of chloride-nitrate mixed particles increased with an increase of particle size. Comparison between the size-segregated bulk analysis and the single particle analysis demonstrated that remarkable chloride depletion occurred in coarse particles sampled on May in the former analysis, while chloride depletion in coarse particles was not marked in the latter analysis. The discrepancy attributes to the difference of the sampling time between both analyses because significant change of air mass route occurred during the bulk sampling after completion of the single particle sampling.     

应用稳态酸化模型计算酸沉降临界负荷

应用稳定状态土壤化学模型ＰＲＯＦＩＬＥ计算了柳州薄层砂页岩红壤和地表水的酸沉降临界负荷。对模型所需参数,建立了系统完整的收集、测量与计算方法,得到柳州地区针叶林植被区域由湿沉降计算总沉降的经验公式。     

湖泊富营养化状态的地面高光谱遥感评价

分别于2004-06和2004-08在太湖的21个固定监测站点进行原位水质取样分析和波谱实测,进而利用地面实测高光谱数据评价太湖水体富营养化状态.水体富营养化程度的评价指标为营养状态指数(TSI).首先,根据太湖水体固有光学特性,用分析模型的方法建立水体反射率模拟模型,进而用求解优化函数的方法,利用Matlab软件反演叶绿素a浓度;其次,利用反演的叶绿素a浓度,计算采样点位的营养状态指数,并利用ArcView软件进行插值,制作太湖富营养状态评价图.结果表明,2004-06和2004-08太湖富营养化程度差     

O(1D)与CF3Cl的反应研究

研究ＣＦ₃Ｃｌ－Ｏ₃体系在２５３．７ｎｍ 紫外光照射下所引发的Ｏ（¹Ｄ）与ＣＦ₃Ｃｌ的反应．Ｏ（¹Ｄ）与ＣＦ₃Ｃｌ的反应最终产物为ＣＦ₂Ｏ、Ｆ₂、Ｃｌ₂,并讨论了Ｏ（¹Ｄ）与ＣＦ₃Ｃｌ的反应机理．研究表明,在本实验条件的２５３．７ｎｍ 紫外光作用下,ＣＦ₃Ｃｌ自身不发生解离,同时Ｏ（³Ｐ）不与ＣＦ₃Ｃｌ发生反应．此外外加气体（氮气、氧气）对Ｏ（¹Ｄ）与ＣＦ₃Ｃｌ的反应有较强的淬灭作用