变温环境下结构高频瞬态能量响应预示

目的解决变温环境下结构的高频瞬态能量响应预示问题。方法基于统计能量分析方法,通过考虑时变参数对结构能量的影响和热效应引起的材料力学性能变化和热应力对统计能量分析参数的影响,提出了一种变温环境下结构高频瞬态能量响应预示方法。以双振子模型为例,通过与Newmark-beta法的对比验证数值方法的准确性。结果该能够较好地捕捉结构高频能量响应的周期性变化规律,其峰值时间和峰值能量与精确数值解基本吻合。以L型折板系统为例,研究了20～300℃变温环境下结构的瞬态能量响应变化规律,子系统1和子系统2之间的能量交换远小于两子系统中因阻尼引起的能量消耗,子系统2瞬态能量响应的峰值时间为4.3ms、峰值能量为0.09J。结论该方法具有较高的计算精度和计算效率,能够较好地适用于结构高频瞬态能量响应预示。     

GIS and geostatistics: Essential partners for spatial analysis

Initially, geographical information systems (GIS) concentrated on two issues: automated map making, and facilitating the comparison of data on thematic maps. The first required high quality graphics, vector data models and powerful data bases, the second is based on grid cells that can be manipulated by suites of mathematical operators collectively termed map algebra. Both kinds of GIS are widely available and are taught in many universities and technical colleges. After more than 20 years of development, most standard GIS provide both kinds of functionality and good quality graphic display, but until recently they have not included the methods of statistics and geostatistics as tools for spatial analysis. Recently, standard statistical packages have been linked to GIS for both exploratory data analysis and statistical analysis and hypothesis testing. Standard statistical packages include methods for the analysis of random samples of cases or objects that are not necessarily co-located in space—if the results of statistical analysis display a spatial pattern then that is because the underlying data also share that pattern. Geostatistics addresses the need to make predictions of sampled attributes (i.e., maps) at unsampled locations from sparse, often expensive data. To make up for lack of hard data geostatistics has concentrated on the development of powerful methods based on stochastic theory. Though there have been recent moves to incorporate ancillary data in geostatistical analyses, insufficient attention has been paid to using modern methods of data display for the visualization of results. GIS can serve geostatistics by aiding geo-registration of data, facilitating spatial exploratory data analysis, providing a spatial context for interpolation and conditional simulation, as well as providing easy-to-use and effective tools for data display and visualization. The value of geostatistics for GIS lies in the provision of reliable interpolation methods with known errors, methods of upscaling and generalization, and for supplying multiple realizations of spatial patterns that can be used in environmental modeling. These stochastic methods are improving understanding of how errors in models of spatial processes accrue from errors in data or incompleteness in the structure of the models. New developments in GIS, based on ideas taken from map algebra, cellular automata and image analysis are providing high level programming languages for modeling dynamic processes such as erosion or the development of alluvial fans and deltas. Research has demonstrated that these models need stochastic inputs to yield realistic results. Non-stochastic tools such as fuzzy subsets have been shown to be useful for spatial analysis when probabilistic approaches are inappropriate or impossible. The conclusion is that in spite of differences in history and approach, the linkage of GIS, statistics and geostatistics provides a powerful, and complementary suite of tools for spatial analysis in the agricultural, earth and environmental sciences.     

Evaluation of preservation methods for nutrient species collected by automatic samplers

Automatic samplers are a common method of data collection for numerous monitoring projects in the South Florida region and elsewhere. Although total phosphorus (TP) is the primary parameter of interest within this region, nitrogen species such as ammonia nitrogen (NH₄-N), nitrate+nitrite nitrogen (NO_x-N), and total kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) are also collected and analyzed. Federal and state quality assurance guidelines require nutrient samples to be preserved by acidification with H₂SO₄ to a pH < 2 and stored immediately at 4 °C. However, the remoteness of manysampling locations in South Florida makes it difficult to supplyelectricity for the refrigeration of samples collected by autosamplers. In addition, the use of propane-powered refrigerated autosamplers is a costly and ineffective solution in the South Florida climate. Consequently, while samples collected at these remote locations are routinely pre-preservedwith acid, they are not cooled to 4 °C for a period fromone to seven days. This study evaluated if a statistically significant difference ( = 0.05) existed between concentrations of nitrogen species from a common source samplethat was either: processed immediately; refrigerated to 4 °C for seven days; or not refrigerated for seven days.In all cases, the collected sample was pre-preserved by adding 1 mL of 50% H₂SO₄ to each 1 L discrete sample container before each 7 day testing period. Differences in concentrations of the calculated parameter total nitrogen (TN)were also investigated.Analyses using the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test showed no significant differences among the three treatment groups for NO_x-N, TKN, TN and TP. Significant differences were observedwhen the NH₄-N samples that were processed immediately werepaired with NH₄-N samples that were left unrefrigerated or refrigerated for seven days. Information from this study can be used by researchers and managers in evaluating the usefulness of nutrient water quality data that is collected when sample refrigeration is not available.     

Forecasting Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations in the Athens Basin

In the work ozone data from the Liossion monitoring station of the Athens/PERPA network are analysed. Data cover the months May to September for the period 1987–93. Four statistical models, three multiple regression and one ARIMA (0,1,2), for the prediction of the daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentrations are developed. All models together, with a persistence forecast, are evaluated and compared with the 1993's data, not used in the models development. Validation statistics were used to assess the relative accuracy of models. Analysis, concerning the models' ability to forecast real ozone episodes, was also carried out. Two of the three regression models provide the most accurate forecasts. The ARIMA model had the worst performance, even lower than the persistence one. The forecast skill of a bivariate wind speed and persistence based regression model for ozone episode days was found to be quite satisfactory, with a detection rate of 73% and 60% for O3 >180 g m-3 and O3 >200 g m-3, respectively.     

Trends in Nitrogen Transport in Swedish Rivers

Concern about nitrogen loads in marine environments has drawn attention to the existence and possible causes of long-term trends in nitrogen transport in rivers. The present study was based on data from the Swedish environmental monitoring programme for surface water quality; the continuity of these data is internationally unique. A recently developed semiparametric method was employed to study the development of relationships between runoff and river transport of nitrogen since 1971; the observed relationships were then used to produce time series of flow-normalised transports for 66 sites in 39 river basins. Subsequent statistical analyses of flow-normalised data revealed only few significant downward trends (p 0.05) during the time period 1971–1994, and the most pronounced of these downward trends were caused by reduced point emissions of nitrogen. The number of significant upward trends was substantially larger (15 for total-N and 18 for NO₃-N). Closer examination of obtained results revealed the following: (i) the most pronounced upward trends were present downstream of lakes, and (ii) observed increases in nitrogen transport coincided in time and space with reduced point emissions of phosphorus or organic matter. This indicated that changes in the retention of nitrogen in lakes were responsible for the upward nitrogen trends. The hypothesis that nitrogen saturation of forest soils has caused a general increase in the riverine export of nitrogen from forested catchments in Sweden was not confirmed. Neither did the results indicate that improved agricultural practices have reduced the export of nitrogen from agricultural catchments.     

Statistical analyses of coastal water quality for a port and harbour region in India

A long-term study of temperature, pH, turbidity, suspended solid, salinity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen has been performed in a port and harbour region in India for four years from December 1996 to November 2000. Marine water quality results showed no regular trend. The mean monthly values of temperature, pH, turbidity, suspended solid, salinity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen were in the range of 22.64 ± 0.4 to 29.05 ± 1.37 °C; 7.65 ± 0.04 to 7.81 ± 0.13; 28.8 ± 14.7 to 64.2 ± 32.0 NTU; 283.5 ± 81.8 to 356.0 ± 159.7 mg/L; 29.78 ± 7.18 to 29.78 ± 1.04 ppt; 4.67 ± 0.50 to 6.01 ± 1.02 mg/L; 5.41 ± 1.92 to 7.56 ± 2.1 mg/L; and 0.25 ± 0.07 to 0.63 ± 0.49 mg/L, respectively. The results of correlation analysis showed that biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was inversely correlated dissolved oxygen (DO) and poorly correlated with all other parameters. Turbidity and suspended solid were moderately correlated with each other while salinity was moderately correlated with other water quality parameters. In factor analysis, four factors were drawn out of the eight variables, which represented 74% of the variance of the original data. Factor I was related to suspended solid and turbidity. Factor II represented mainly temperature and DO showing inverse relation between these two. Factor III implied the degree of pollution at any monitoring station. Factor IV included pH and salinity. It could be concluded that the factor model represented almost all the variables.     

实验室能力验证中的分割水平检测样品与稳健统计技术

论述了分割水平检测样品和稳健统计技术在对实验室能力验证活动中的应用,并对导致CNAL T040水中金属元素检测能力验证计划中部分结果异常的原因进行了分析。     

Assessment of community noise problem in Greater Beirut Area,Lebanon

Over the last two decades, urban noise has been increasingrapidly, primarily in urban areas, due to population growthand the increase of certain noise sources. The main objectiveof this paper is to assess the sources and possible impactsof the community noise problems in Lebanese urban areas,particularly the Greater Beirut Area. The causes and effectsof community noise pollution are briefly presented. Soundpressure levels that were measured to define existing noiseexposure levels in various locations in the Greater BeirutArea are also presented. The attitudes toward noise pollutionand perceived annoyance impact on a sample of 1,038 exposedresidents are described. The association between measurednoise levels and sources, as well as annoyance, is examinedusing correlation analysis and linear and multiple linearregressions. A set of recommendations is presented to reducecommunity noise problem in Greater Beirut Area.     

基于统计复杂度的分数阶欠阻尼双稳系统的随机共振研究

目的研究Gaussian白噪声作用下分数阶欠阻尼双稳系统的随机共振现象。方法采用统计复杂度方法探究分数阶导数、余弦信号的幅值及频率、阻尼系数等参数对分数阶系统随机共振效应的影响。结果当这些参数变化时,分数阶系统的统计复杂度曲线和标准Shannon熵曲线会产生不同的变化趋势,且在分数阶导数q=0.3时,系统最易发生随机共振现象。此外,当信号振幅增加至0.2时,可以增强随机共振效应;相反,信号频率增大至0.07时,可以削弱此现象。结论这些因素可以有效地调节分数阶双稳系统的随机共振现象。     

战斗机阻力伞载荷计算研究

目的通过对战斗机阻力伞载荷计算开展研究,为阻力伞安装支持结构的静强度和疲劳强度分析提供支持。方法分别运用工程计算方法、流固耦合数值模拟方法,并对比阻力伞火箭滑车试验实测数据,对阻力伞载荷计算开展研究。同时基于飞参数据,运用统计学方法对影响阻力伞载荷大小和方向的开伞速度、飞机俯仰角、侧风速度与方向等参数进行统计分析,为载荷谱编制提供数据基础。结果确定阻力伞载荷工程计算方法中动载系数k取为1.2,将一次放伞的载荷历程简化为以拉直力和张满力为峰值的两个载荷循环,且拉直力为张满力的50%。以某型飞机766架起落飞参数据为基础,运用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布、指数分布对开伞速度、飞机俯仰角、侧风速度与方向等参数进行拟合,结合阻力伞载荷计算方法,得出阻力伞载荷大小和方向分布的统计规律。结论明确了阻力伞载荷计算方法及计算相关参数选取,同时提出一种符合战斗机实际使用环境的阻力伞载荷谱编制方法。