2004年7-10月国内安全事故统计分析

统计了2004年7-10月国内发生的各种安全事故1 052起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,矿业事故最多,占63.4%,平均每天5.4起事故,其次是交通事故(26.8%)、其他事故(3.9%)、爆炸事故(2.8%)、毒物泄露和中毒(2.1%)、火灾(1.0%).1 052起事故共死亡2 909人,伤2 499人,死亡人数的百分比分别为矿业事故43.2%、交通事故42.8%、爆炸事故5.8%、其他事故4.4%、泄露中毒2.1%、火灾1.7%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故58.3%、泄露中毒21.6%、矿业事故9.6%、爆炸事故5.5%、其他事故3.9%、火灾1.0%.     

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING PEAK WATER DEMAND OF MULTIFAMILY RESIDENCES1

ABSTRACT: The importance of estimating peak water demands for determining the dimensions of pipe size and meters which provide household water to multifamily residences is examined. Several methods utilized in North America and Europe are examined. The analysis makes clear the necessity of studying the peak water demand through statistics based on local data concerning multifamily residences. For different periods of return, the peak demand of a given apartment building is related to its size (the number of apartments) in order to compare the results obtained with existing formula. By use of Ridge-regression technique, the relationship between peak water demand, and building size (number of apartments) and available pressure is established. It can be concluded that peak demand can be estimated with the square root of number of apartment units in the building and the cube root of water pressure.     

Developing an optimal sampling design. A case study in a coastal marine ecosystem

The development of a sampling design for optimisingsampling site locations collected from a coastalmarine environment has been the purpose of the presentwork; application of statistical analysis and spatialautocorrelation methods have been carried out. Thedataset included data collected from 34 sampling sitesspaced out in the Strait of Lesbos, Greece, arrangedin a 1×1 NM grid. The coastal shallow ecosystem wassubdivided into three zones, an inner one (7stations), a middle one (16 stations) and an offshorezone (11 stations). The standard error of thechlorophyll-a concentrations in each zone hasbeen used as the criterion for the sampling designoptimisation, resulting into reallocation of thesampling sites into the three zones. The positions ofthe reallocated stations have been assessed byestimation of the spatial heterogeneity and anisotropyof chlorophyll-a concentrations usingvariograms. Study of the variance of the initialdataset of the inner zone taking into account spatialheterogeneity, revealed two different sub-areas andtherefore, the number of the inner stations has beenreassessed. The proposed methodology eliminates thenumber of sampling sites and maximises the informationof spatial data from marine ecosystems. It isdescribed as a step-by-step procedure and could bewidely applied in sampling design concerning coastalpollution problems.     

PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVERITY OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHTS BASED ON AGRO-CLIMATIC FACTORS1

ABSTRACT: Past historical evidence indicates that droughts have had great impacts on human life. Drought (or scarcity of water) is assessed based on two key factors, namely, the estimated water demand, and the expected water supply. The formulation of these key factors for a region largely depends on the agro-climatic and economic conditions. Consideration of one such key factor is the relationship between the crop yield and water deficit in the assessment and prediction of agricultural droughts. The varying nature of this relationship from crop to crop adds to the complexity of agricultural drought analysis. To overcome this difficulty in analyzing agricultural droughts of a region, it is adequate to consider and place emphasis on a single crop (i.e., an index crop) grown homogeneously over the major area of the region. From one year to another year, the pattern of water requirement during the growing season of an index crop is rather stationary, and the water supply in arid and semi-arid area is mainly from seasonal random precipitation. In a region, grain yield of the index crop and, in turn, assessment of the severity of drought can reasonably be predicted as a function of the time of crop sowing and the distribution of rainfall, provided that temporal and spatial effects of other contributing factors (crop variety, soil fertility status, crop disease, pest control, cultivation practices etc.) on grain yield are considered to be uniformly distributed (i.e., stable). A predictive method of assessing agricultural droughts in an arid area of western India is presented. The major crop (Pearl Millet) of this region is grown from. July through September. The formulation of the proposed predictive method inherently implies that the grain yield of the main crop is a reliable indicator of agricultural drought. In the development of this predictive relationship (i.e., a regression type model) a number of potential yet simple variables affecting the grain yield in the region were investigated. The soil moisture index, although generally considered significant compared to the simple variables, has been found to account for insignificant variation in the grain yield. Results of our investigations suggest that it would be advisable to exclude the soil moisture index variable from the model. The proposed regression model can be used in the prediction of grain yield of the main crop several months ahead of crop harvesting operations and, in turn, the assessment of agricultural drought severity as mild, moderate, or severe. Such an assessment is expected to be helpful to planners for arranging appropriate measures to effectively combat agricultural drought situations.     

SPURIOUS CYCLES IN WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS1

This paper reviews analytical procedures for deducing from annual streamflow data information required for water resources systems planning. The procedure relies on two techniques to determine the extent that cycles exist in annual time series data. The first is to observe how the time series behaves around the mean annual flow. If it tends not to move across the mean frequently, it is concluded that a cyclical nature exists. The second technique is to observe the time path of accumulated departures from the mean annual flow. The validity of both techniques is questioned. The first because it uses mean flow as “normal” or the flow that the time series should fluctuate around. The second because the accumulated departure from the mean time series will be autocor-related even when the individual annual or seasonal flow observations are uncorrected. Alternative analytical techniques, which find no cycles, are presented.     

STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY: DEFINITIONS AND INTERPRETATION FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: Considerable effort is expended each year in making flood peak estimates at both gaged and ungaged sites. Many methods, both simplistic and complex, have been proposed for making such estimates. The hydrologist that must make an estimate at a particular site is interested in the accuracy of the estimate. Most methods are developed using either statistical analyses or analytical optimization schemes. While publications describing these methods often include some statistical measure of goodness-of-flt, the terminology often does not provide the potential user with an answer to the question,‘How accurate is the estimate?’ That is, statistical terminology often are not used properly, which may lead to a false sense of security. The use of the correct terminology will help potential users evaluate the usefulness of a proposed method and provide a means of comparing different methods. This study provides definitions for terms often used in literature on flood peak estimation and provides an interpretation for these terms. Specific problems discussed include the use of arbitrary levels of significance in statistical tests of hypotheses, the identification of both random and systematic variation in estimates from hydrologic methods, and the difference between accuracy of model calibration and accuracy of prediction.     

AN APPLICATION OF COMPUTER GRAPHICS TO ANALYSIS OF EXTREMES1

ABSTRACT: A convenient method for the statistical analysis of hydrologic extremes is to use probability papers to fit selected theoretical distributions to extremal observations. Three commonly accepted statistical distributions of extreme hydrologic events are: the double exponential distribution, the bounded exponential distribution, and the Log Pearson Type III distribution. In most cases, probability papers are distribution specific. But, for the Log Pearson Type III distribution, the probability paper is characterized by a population-specific parameter, namely, the coefficient of skewness. It is not practicable to procure probability papers for all possible values of this parameter. Therefore, a computer program is developed to generate population-specific probability papers and to perform statistical analysis of the data using computer graphics. Probability papers covering return periods up to 1000 years or more are generated for the three distributions mentioned above. Using a plot routine, available extremal observations are plotted on selected probability papers and a linear regression analysis is used to fit a straight line to the data. Predictions of hydrologic extremes for higher recurrence intervals can be made by extrapolating the fitted straight lines.     

PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: The individual hydrologic components are assumed to be normally distributed for each month and linear regression equations are estimated for predicting the value of the individual monthly hydrologic components. It is shown that some of the hydrologic components for downwind (in this case downstream) lakes are dependent upon hydrologic events for the upwind lakes. This is particularly so for precipitation in the downwind lake basins which appears to be dependent upon evaporation values for upwind lakes.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSUMPTION1

The purpose of this study was to determine the degree of influence of various factors on municipal water consumption in Illinois. For the collection of basic data, questionnaires were sent to all public water works of incorporated towns. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information on factors which may have any effect on water use. The effects of the different parameters on water consumption were based on several correlation and regression combinations of predictands and predictors. It was found that in the Chicago region the percent of services and water used for commercial and industrial purposes and the age of the water works were the most important parameters influencing water consumption (gallons per capita per day) when pumpage is metered at the water works as well as at the customers. For the State, excluding the Chicago region, percent of public water use, persons per service, population and commercial and industrial water use were the most important parameters. It has been recommended that similar statistical analysis be conducted periodically to establish a trend or law of change from the influencing parameters.     

Temporal Trends in Water Chemistry in the Turkey Lakes Watershed Ontario,Canada, 1982-1999

The Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) was established in 1980 as asite for study of the ecosystem effects of acidic deposition, andsince then there has been 40% reduction in North AmericanSO₂ emissions. Monitoring records for bulk deposition,shallow and deep ground water, two headwater streams and two lakeoutflows have been tested to identify statistically significantmonotonic trends. The TLW appears to be responding to decliningacidifying emissions because the most prevalent chemical trendacross sample types/stations was decreasing SO₄ ^2-. Increasing pH was detected in four of the seven data sets, butonly the H⁺ decrease in bulk deposition was of a magnitudeto be an important ionic compensation for the SO₄ ^2-decline. There is little evidence of acidification recovery inTLW waters however. Increasing alkalinity was found only in theoutflow of the penultimate lake of the basin, and in fact, deepground water and the other lake outflow had decreasing alkalinitytrends (i.e., continuing acidification). For the surface waterstations, the greater part of the ionic compensation fordeclining SO₄ ^2- was decreasing base cations, and as aresult, these waters are probably becoming more dilute with time,although only the headwater streams exhibited decliningconductivity. Five of seven data sets had increasing dissolvedorganic carbon concentrations. Increasing NO₃ ^- wasimportant in ground waters. Drought has strongly influencedtrends and delayed recovery by mobilizing S stored in catchmentwetlands and/or soils.