HYDROLOGIC STAGE PERIODICITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE AND AFTER SYSTEMATIC CHANNEL MODIFICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Periodic flood disturbance is a well known controlling factor of in channel and floodplain ecosystem function. However, channel manipulations during the last century have potentially altered hydrologic fluctuations, and thus ecosystem function. We examined temporal river stage hydrology, through autocorrelation analysis, at seven gauges along the Mississippi River to quantify flow periodicity and effects of systematic channel modifications on flow periodicity. Intraannual variation follows a strong one‐year cycle of six months higher flow and six months lower flow for the entire Mississippi River drainage, with precipitation as a driving force. Interannual hydrologic variation differs between the upper and lower river segments. A clear quasi‐biennial oscillation pattern was evident throughout the lower river section. The effect of channel alterations was a decreased magnitude of differences between lower and higher flows. The upper section, however, suggests a 12‐to 14‐year periodicity prior to alterations and a decreased duration of lower flow years following systematic modifications. Interannual variograms clearly depict very different temporal hydrology between the upper Mississippi River and the lower Mississippi River, suggesting the simple transfer of knowledge from one segment to the other oversimplifies the complexity of a large river system.     

SAMPLING STRATEGIES FOR ESTIMATING ACUTE AND CHRONIC EXPOSURES OF PESTICIDES IN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 requires that human exposure to pesticides through drinking water be considered when establishing pesticide tolerances in food. Several systematic and seasonally weighted systematic sampling strategies for estimating pesticide concentrations in surface water were evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation, using intensive datasets from four sites in northwestern Ohio. The number of samples for the strategies ranged from 4 to 120 per year. Sampling strategies with a minimal sampling frequency outside the growing season can be used for estimating time weighted mean and percentile concentrations of pesticides with little loss of accuracy and precision, compared to strategies with the same sampling frequency year round. Less frequent sampling strategies can be used at large sites. A sampling frequency of 10 times monthly during the pesticide runoff period at a 90 km² basin and four times monthly at a 16,400 km² basin provided estimates of the time weighted mean, 90^th, 95^th, and 99^th percentile concentrations that fell within 50 percent of the true value virtually all of the time. By taking into account basin size and the periodic nature of pesticide runoff, costs of obtaining estimates of time weighted mean and percentile pesticide concentrations can be minimized.     

STREAM DEPTH SIGNIFICANCE DURING IN‐SITU SEDIMENT OXYGEN DEMAND MEASUREMENTS IN SHALLOW STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Ninety‐one sediment oxygen demand (SOD) samples from six designated sites along the stretch of Lower Rapid Creek, South Dakota, were conducted using an in‐situ SOD chamber. Inside the chamber, readings of dissolved oxygen (DO), water temperature, pH, and specific conductance were recorded every minute for more than one hour using the Datasonde 3 Hydrolab. Initial readings of such parameters were recorded for the overlaying water before the deployment of the SOD chamber. Characteristics of the stream conditions, air temperature, barometric pressure, average flow velocity of the stream, depth of the stream, and the flow velocity by the chamber were recorded. Single and multiple linear regression analyses on all parameters indicated that the velocity of the stream is the least critical parameter for SOD in shallow streams.     

MERITS OF STATISTICAL CRITERIA FOR THE PERFORMANCE OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The performance of a hydrological model is usually assessed first by visual inspection of the measured and computed hydrographs. Numerous statistical criteria are available for numerical evaluations of model accuracy in each single year, in a particular season of the year, or in a sequence of years or seasons. In the last case, the problem of computing the overall result has to be considered. If too many criteria are used and the criteria are switched frequently, an assessment of a model's performance becomes difficult for a potential user. Therefore, this paper concentrates on just three criteria and their combined evaluation: The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, which compares the model computed discharge with the average measured discharge; the “coefficient of gain from daily means” in which a uniform average discharge is replaced by daily average discharges; and the volumetric difference between the total measured and computed runoff. The three criteria are combined in a three dimensional representation that allows intercomparisons of model performance in a single diagram.     

PROBLEMS AND METHODS INVOLVED IN RELATING LAND USE TO GROUND-WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Efforts to relate shallow ground-water quality to the land use near a well lead to several statistical difficulties. These include potential uncertainty in land-use categorical data due to misclassification, data closure, distributional skewing, and spatial autocorrelation. Methods of addressing these problems are, respectively, the establishment of limits on minimum buffer radius, the estimation of contrasts, rank-based tests of association, and sub-sampling to prevent buffer overlap. Relations between the presence of purgeable organic compounds in ground water and land use are used to illustrate these problems and methods.     

“气候变暖”对雅砻江水资源的影响

本文引入几种统计模型探讨“气候变暖”对水资源的影响。这些模型经实测资料验证，模拟和预测效果了。在一定环境条件下，利用它们预估“气候变暖”对雅砻江未来水资源的影响，获得令人满意的成果。     

WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.     

人的生命价值评估方法述评

评估生命价值最常用的两种方法是人力资本法和支付意愿法。用人力资本法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人未来的生产能力来计量,而用支付意愿法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人为降低死亡风险而愿意支付的货币金额来计量。支付意愿法又包括工资—风险法、消费市场法和条件价值法3种类型。工资—风险法通过分析一个人的工资与其工作风险之间的关系来估算生命价值;消费市场法关注的是人们在其进行消费决策时,在风险与价格之间的权衡;而条件价值法则是给定一个假定情景,请被访者对货币和风险进行直接权衡来估算生命价值。笔者对国内外生命价值评估研究进行述评,指出了各种评估方法的优缺点。支付意愿法已成为国外学者评估生命价值的主流方法,学习借鉴国外的研究经验,将这一方法运用于我国的生命价值评估研究是今后国内研究的一个方向。     

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Using Support Vector Machines and Ensemble Kalman Filter1

Abstract: A hybrid data assimilation (DA) methodology that combines two state‐of‐the‐art techniques, support vector machines (SVMs) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is applied for soil moisture DA in this work. The SVM methodology provides a statistically sound and robust approach to solving the inverse problem, and thus to building statistical models. EnKF is an extension of the Kalman Filter (KF), a well‐known tool in prediction updating. In the present research, ground measurements were used to build a SVM‐type soil moisture predictor. Subsequent observations and their statistics were assimilated to update predictions from the SVM model by coupling it with EnKF. In this way, both model predictions and ground data, as well as their statistics, are fused thus minimizing the prediction error and making the predictions and observations statistically consistent. The results are shown for two approaches; one in which update is done at every time step and the other which assumes that data is only available at alternate time steps (in window of 10 time steps) and hence update is performed at those occasions. The SVM‐EnKF coupling is shown to improve soil moisture forecasts in an example using data from the Soil Climate Analysis Network site at Ames, Iowa.     

《中国安全生产科学技术》期刊发展分析

《中国安全生产科学技术》是我国安全科学领域一本学术性、技术性比较强的科技期刊,定位于国家级安全生产科学研究领域的权威性期刊,学术性与实用性兼顾。本文以2005～2006年《中国安全生产科学技术》的有关统计数据为基础进行分析,有关数据说明《中国安全生产科学技术》期刊涉及安全生产各个领域,作者所在地涵盖全国27个省市及海外3个国家和地区,在安全科学领域有较大的影响;发文数量稳中有升,注意刊发不同领域和机构的论文,发展平衡,有稳定的发展潜力;基金论文多,期刊学术水平比较高;版式编排规范、标准,既注重刊物质量,也注意期刊的外在表现。