Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)回归性分析的尾矿库事故预测模型

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)软件的分析功能,对调查研究中获取的尾矿库案例进行数据提炼和分类编码,找出相关因子并进行回归性分析。最终目的是找出尾矿库各个因素的内在联系,建立简单的尾矿库事故模型,从而可以初步预测尾矿库事故发生的可能性。该预测模型为尾矿库事故的研究提出了新方法,对于防灾减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全起到了积极作用。     

矿区铁路安全管理信息系统的研究

针对我国矿区铁路运输安全管理落后的现状,分析矿区铁路运输安全管理的主要特点,设计了矿区铁路安全管理信息系统的总体结构。以徐沛铁路运输系统为例,基于B/S模式开发了徐沛铁路安全管理信息系统,实现了对职工的安全培训考核、职工安全档案管理、运输事故信息的录入与统计分析、各类安全文档的管理、技术措施的审批和安全直通车的功能。该系统已在徐沛铁路运输安全管理中得到成功应用,也可应用于其他矿区铁路安全管理。     

喻家湖水质时空分布特征和影响因子分析

通过设计合理的水质监测网,采用多元统计分析,并结合地理信息技术对武汉市喻家湖在2011年-2012年期间12个监测点、13个水质参数监测值进行水质时空分布特征研究.结果表明,喻家湖13个水质指标概括为4个主成分:第一主成分代表喻家湖的重金属污染,第二主成分代表其富营养化水平,第三主成分代表有机污染程度,第四主成分间接指示富营养化程度;在时间和空间变化上都可分为二组,显著性指标的时空差异较明显,水质污染程度从南至北逐渐减弱,湖溪河是喻家湖的最主要污染源.并对水质参数,监测点位和频次进行了优化.     

Validation of the Polish version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) in an elderly population (60–70 years old)

Purpose. To assess the reliability and validity of the Polish version of the 36-point World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) in an elderly population. Method. One thousand randomly selected individuals, aged 60–70 years, living in south-eastern Poland were assessed using the Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0. Results. The analysis confirmed the high reliability and validity of the tool. Cronbach’s α index was 0.89. The tool had high stability, and the correlation between test and retest results was high. The relevance of the domain selection was high or very high. A factor analysis confirmed the relevance of assigning questions to domains. High theoretical relevance was also demonstrated. Statistically significant differences between those who were and were not suffering from health problems were observed. An analysis of the internal structure of the WHODAS 2.0 revealed strong correlations between the components of each domain and the final result. Conclusion. The Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0 showed high reliability and validity; thus, it can be used to assess health, functioning and disability in the elderly population of Poland.     

电气伤亡事故的主客体场景指标设计及统计规律

为合理预防控制电气伤亡事故的发生提供依据,通过检索查阅国内外相关文献和政府网站公布的电气伤亡事故和案例情况描述,选取105起典型电气伤亡事故案例进行统计与分析;针对电气伤亡事故涉及的主客体场景要素,对其进行筛选、分类、排序及指标设计,形成系统的电气伤亡事故指标体系;结合现实情况对统计结果进行原因分析,根据统计结果,得到电气伤亡事故发生的一般规律,据此提出安全管理中需要关注与重视之处,以此来预防电气伤亡事故的发生。     

基于统计方法的辽东湾沉积物中多环芳烃来源特征分析

为研究辽东湾表层沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的来源特征,2014年5月采集了20个辽东湾海域表层沉积物样品,并利用气相色谱质谱联用仪对优先控制的16种PAHs进行测定,采用聚类分析、主成分分析-多元线性回归分析、异构体比值3种统计方法对辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs来源特征进行了研究。结果表明,辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs含量范围88.5~199.3 ng·g-1,平均值为(126.3±35.3)ng·g-1,其中,萘、菲和荧蒽是PAHs优势组分。通过统计分析结果表明,辽东湾北部表层沉积物中PAHs含量低于西南部,沉积物中PAHs的来源包括石油燃烧来源、煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源和石油来源,其中燃烧来源是主要来源,煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源占49.9%,石油燃烧来源和石油来源占50.1%。     

蚯蚓生态滤池中蚯蚓与植物对污水净化的作用评估

构建具有不同蚯蚓和植物配置的4个单级蚯蚓生态滤池,依次编号为A(无蚯蚓无植物)、B(有蚯蚓无植物)、C(有蚯蚓栽种芦苇)和D(有蚯蚓栽种水生鸢尾)。通过比较4个滤池在6个月实验期间对化学需氧量(COD)和总氮(TN)的去除效率,系统分析蚯蚓和植物对滤池去除污染物的影响。实验分2个阶段进行:5月上旬至9月上旬,滤池进水碳氮比恒定为6;9月中旬至11月中旬,滤池每周进水碳氮比交替为3、6、9。研究结果表明,蚯蚓对滤池去除COD有一定的促进作用,且作用强度显著受到进水碳氮比的影响。植物的存在与种类对滤池去除COD效率没有显著影响。蚯蚓和植物对滤池的TN去除效率都没有显著影响。滤池进水的碳氮比是显著影响滤池去除TN效率的主要因素。     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

环境健康价值评估中的年龄效应研究

在环境健康价值评估研究中,统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系是理论和实证研究焦点之一,也是重要的学术问题。长久以来,环境政策效益评估中是否应该赋予老年人较低的统计寿命价值一直存在广泛争议,且尚未得到一致性结论。通过设计选择实验,对北京市空气质量改善的健康效益进行了抽样调查,并采用MNL模型对北京市约500个居民的调查数据进行回归分析,估算了不同年龄人群对健康风险减少的支付意愿,针对中国人群中统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系进行实证探讨。结果表明:一方面,在总体样本中设置年龄虚拟变量,回归结果表明年龄变量系数的符号均显著为负,即年龄因素对减少空气污染带来的死亡风险降低的支付意愿具有显著的影响,年龄越大支付意愿相对越小;另一方面,不同年龄人群分组样本结果显示,统计寿命价值与年龄之间呈现"倒U型"关系,统计寿命价值在中国存在"老年折扣"现象。研究结果可为我国环境政策的健康效益分析中如何考虑年龄的影响提供重要依据。