近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料,采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势,并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验,用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标,对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验,采用了Mann Kendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致,年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关;饶河流域强降水事件较多,降水强度大,赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀,强降水事件较少;（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大;（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界,之前呈波动上升趋势,之后呈波动下降趋势,2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少;（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变;（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧,旱涝灾害风险增加。     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

混凝法深度处理印染废水中试研究

采用"高效混凝沉淀-过滤"深度处理工艺处理印染废水二级生化出水,并将混凝沉淀污泥回流.实验结果表明,混凝剂聚合氯化铝加入量为160 mg/L时,COD去除率平均可达34.6%,TP去除率平均达到87.9%,平均出水TP为0.3 mg/L.气相色谱-质谱分析和元素分析结果表明混凝沉淀工艺对有机物和TP的去除效果良好.     

全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

1961~2015年西南地区降水及洪涝指数空间分布特征

利用西南地区98个气象站连续完整的日降水序列数据,整合降水强度、持续性指数及等级指数形成降水指数体系并研究该区域降水及洪涝指数的空间分布特征,得到以下主要结论：（1） 1961~2015年,西南地区年降水量（PRCPTOT）与极端降水量（R95PTOT）都呈现出“东多西少、南多北少”的分布形态;持续降水日数（CWD）则表现为“南高北低、西高东低”的分布格局。区域多年平 均PRCPTOT、R95PTOT、CWD分别以-13.12 mm/10 a、1.34 mm/10 a、-0.29 d/10 a的速率变化。（2）西南地区不同等级降水日数具有相似的空间分布特征,均呈现出“南高北低、东高西低”的分布形态。（3）西南地区洪涝强度指数呈由东北向西南递减的分布特征;降水总量越多的地区,洪涝强度反而越低,主要由于单站洪涝强度表征的是降水的波动情况,降水量越多波动越不明显。21世纪以来,该 地区洪涝等级以重级为主,2010年以来连续多年出现特重级洪涝。此外,洪涝强度越大,区域性年度灾害等级越高。该研究对于掌握西南地区极端气候变化规律,从而服务于防灾减灾具有一定的理论意义。     

湿法净化黑烟中添加剂对炭黑沉降性能的影响

湿法净化黑烟中炭黑颗粒物的关键在于降低吸收液的表面张力并以高性能絮凝剂使其从溶液中絮凝、沉降以利于分离。选用十六烷基三甲基溴化胺(CTAB)为主要表面活性剂,使之与十二烷基苯磺酸钠(SDBS)和月桂醇聚氧乙烯(9)醚(AEO-9)进行复配实验,研究了复配液的表面张力,再向最低表面张力的复配表面活性剂溶液中投加絮凝剂聚合氯化铝(PAC)和聚丙烯酰胺(PAM),探讨絮凝剂的添加对黑烟颗粒沉降和絮凝的影响.实验结果表明:同时添加表面活性剂CTAB,SDBS和PAC,并使之浓度分别为0.5 mmol/L,0.4 mmol/L和200 mg/L时,炭黑颗粒的沉降效果最好,沉降率高达94%,且絮凝体较大,沉降时间仅为2 min。     

化学沉淀法强化常规工艺应急去除水中的镉

在常规工艺基础上,通过投加氢氧化钠,实验进行了应急去除重金属镉的研究。实验结果表明,该方法能有效去除饮用水水源的镉,效果稳定,可进行应急处理。对pH、镉初始浓度和混凝剂投加量3个影响因素的灰色关联分析表明,3个因素对镉去除效果影响的大小排序为:滤后水pH>混凝剂投加量>镉初始浓度。在水源镉突发污染时,在原有常规水处理工艺基础上,通过控制滤后水pH可实现对重金属镉的去除,pH的控制值与水源水质有关。     

Generation of Monthly Precipitation Under Climate Change for the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Abstract: This work develops a methodology to project the future precipitation in large river basins under limited data and climate change while preserving the historical temporal and spatial characteristics. The computationally simple and reliable conditional generation method (CGM) is presented and applied to generate reliable monthly precipitation data in the upper Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia where rain‐fed agriculture is prevalent. The results showed that the temporal analysis with the CGM performs better to reproduce the historical long‐term characteristics than other methods, and the spatial analysis with the CGM reproduced the historical spatial structure accurately. A 100‐year time series analysis using the outcomes of the six general circulation models showed that precipitation changes by the 2050s (2040 through 2069) can be ?7 to 28% with a mean increase of about 11%. The seasonal results showed increasing wet conditions in all seasons with changes of mean precipitation of 5, 47, and 6% for wet, dry, and mild seasons, respectively.     

Management of basiphilous dune slack communities in relation to carbonate accumulation and hydrological conditions

In dune slacks in The Netherlands, a decline of rare mesotrophic basiphilous plant species and their plant communities has been observed in combination with an increase of more productive systems with common, taller acidophilous plant species. This has been attributed to both natural and anthropogenic changes. In a humid climate with a precipitation surplus, as in The Netherlands, the calcium carbonate content of a calcareous soil increases with depth. However, soils in coastal dune slacks, may have a higher carbonate content in the topsoil horizon than in the underlying layers. Carbonates which buffer the pH can prolong the presence of mesotrophic basiphilous plant communities which are of high conservation value. To explain the occurrence of calcareous surface horizons in dune slacks, hydrological and micromorphological analyses were carried out in three dune slacks. Two slacks are situated on the Wadden Sea islands in the northern part of The Netherlands; one on Schiermonnikoog and one on Texel. The third slack is situated in the dunes on the island of Goeree in the southwestern part of The Netherlands. In all three slacks, carbonate occurs as mollusc and gastropod fragments (silt- or sand-sized) and as micritic nodules in the topsoil layer, due to aeolian deposition and sedimentation by water.In situ carbonate accumulation (calcitans and calcareous crusts) due to CO₂ release in inundated and/or capillary rise of calcareous groundwater near, or at the soil surface. Accumulation of carbonate also occurs as a result of biological activity by algae in the topsoil of the Goeree site. In general, hydrological processes maintaining high levels of calcareous groundwater are a prerequisite for the maintenance of high carbonate levels in topsoils. Such levels are necessary for the conservation and management of basiphilous pioneer vegetation.     

循环流化床锅炉烟气脱硫除尘技术改造

对承德市热电厂CG35／3．82－MX型循环流化术锅炉的脱硫除尘系统进行了改造,解决了原水膜除尘器效率低,烟法排放严重超标的问题,取得了良好的环境效益,社会效益和经济效益。