分形理论在三峡水库汛期洪水分期中的应用

水库分期汛限水位控制能在不增加新的防洪风险条件下提高水库的兴利效益,汛期洪水的划分则是分期汛限水位控制的前提.介绍了分形理论及容量维数的计算方法,以三峡水库宜昌站为例,利用传统统计学法和动态分维数法,确定了洪水分期数目,并计算了各分期的容量维数,从而最终确定三峡水库的洪水分期.结果显示,用分形方法划分的三峡水库的汛期洪水和传统研究分期基本一致,但分形理论计算较为客观,进一步表明分形理论在洪水分期中是可行的,值得深入探讨和应用.     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识,有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素,不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节,还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法,比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明,公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度,信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播,其中宜春公众的信任度较高;公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱,尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小;公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关,主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响,即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异,风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

1993年江西省洪涝灾害分析

１９９３年江西省发生了较严重的洪涝灾害。本文阐述了灾情，从自然因素和人为因素两个方面，分析了造成洪涝灾害的原因；并对今后如何搞好江西省洪涝灾害减灾，提出若干看法与建议。     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH A FLAT,COMPLEX FLOODPLAIN USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL UNSTEADY FLOW COMPUTER PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: The routing of flood waves through the Central Basin of the Passaic River in New Jersey is complex because of flat gradients and flow reversals. The one-dimensional unsteady flow program DWOPER, developed by the National Weather Service, was used to simulate flood wave movement through the Basin. A historical event was used for calibration and two synthetic events were simulated. Boundary conditions consisted of discharge hydrographs at inflow points to the study area, local flow hydrographs at interior points, and a stage discharge relation for flow over the crest of a diversion dam at the basin outlet. Manning's n values were adjusted based on stage and discharge data for the historical event; however, verification data were not available for events comparable in magnitude to the synthetic events. Aspects of the investigation reported include techniques for characterizing the flow system, model calibration, techniques for representing a tunnel diversion, and simulation results.     

江苏省城市防汛决策支持系统研究

在分析江苏省城市防汛问题的基础上，设计了其防汛决策支持系统；根据江苏省城市洪涝灾情特点研建和选用了适宜的数学模型，该模型可以迅速、可靠和正确地模拟城市雨情、水情、灾情的发展过程和可能后果，为城市防汛决策提供多层次的信息服务和多种支持手段。     

基于洪水灾害快速评估的承灾体易损性信息管理系统

洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统是为了开展洪水灾害快速评估,对不同洪水灾害流域和同一洪水灾害流域中的不同地区、不同承灾体(财产分类)、不同致灾因子(水深和历时等)条件,以财产的损失率为核心的综合信息管理系统。本文介绍了洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统的开发与设计的基本原理,阐述了系统的总体结构框架和功能模块划分,并且在系统数据流程图的基础上,对损失率数据库等几个重要的模块进行了详细的分析与设计,给出了系统的部分运行结果。本系统在与GIS、遥感等空间技术结合后,能够高效地完成各种洪水灾害损失的快速评估与预测分析工作,同时,本系统亦可独立作为对区域洪水灾害易损性研究的数据基础和理论支撑。     

生态环境与洪旱灾害

作者将自然运动与人类活动、生态环境与气候结合起来研究，求索洪旱灾害之谜，着重探讨了其中多种生态环境因素。由大灾后的反思，找出灾害加剧的人为原因是：人中激增、生态危机、水利失修等，提出必须加强防灾减灾的对策研究。     

FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT: SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS' ATTITUDES AND APPROACHES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of floodplain management are changing in the United States. There has been a gradual shift in emphasis from “flood control” to “management” of the floodplain. The complexities of multilevel governmental involvement in floodplain management demand an analysis of a new means to coordinate these efforts. It is the intent of this paper to discuss the role of the Corps of Engineers in this area and the problems the Corps has encountered in its endeavors. The occurrence of these problems indicates that there is a need to strengthen the federal role to ensure a comprehensive view of floodplain management.     

IMPACT OF FLOOD HAZARD ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES IN GALT (CAMBRIDGE), ONTARIO1

ABSTRACT: This study is an examination of the relationship between flooding and property values for an urban community in southwestern Ontario which has a lengthy history of flooding. As well, peoples’perceptions of the effect of flooding on property values is discussed. Analysis of sales prices and assessment data demonstrated no statistically significant differences in values of property for residences located in high- and low-risk areas either before or after a major flood in 1974. With both the high- and low-risk areas, sales prices after the 1974 flood were significantly higher than sales prices before the flood. The perceived property values followed a similar pattern. We concluded that differences in flood risk and flood experience did not adversely affect actual or perceived long-term property values.