Longitudinal Analysis of Attitudes Toward Wolves

Understanding individual attitudes and how these predict overt opposition to predator conservation or direct, covert action against predators will help to recover and maintain them. Studies of attitudes toward wild animals rely primarily on samples of individuals at a single time point. We examined longitudinal change in individuals’ attitudes toward gray wolves (Canis lupus). In the contiguous United States, amidst persistent controversy and opposition, abundances of gray wolves are at their highest in 60 years. We used mailed surveys to sample 1892 residents of Wisconsin in 2001 or 2004 and then resampled 656 of these individuals who resided in wolf range in 2009. Our study spanned a period of policy shifts and increasing wolf abundance. Over time, the 656 respondents increased agreement with statements reflecting fear of wolves, the belief that wolves compete with hunters for deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and inclination to poach a wolf. Endorsement of lethal control of wolves by the state and public hunting of wolves also increased. Neither the time span over which respondents reported exposure to wolves locally nor self‐reported losses of domestic animals to wolves correlated with changes in attitude. We predict future increases in legal and illegal killing of wolves that may reduce their abundance in Wisconsin unless interventions are implemented to improve attitudes and behavior toward wolves. To assess whether interventions change attitudes, longitudinal studies like ours are needed. Análisis Longitudinal de las Actitudes Hacia Lobos     

A Comparison of Aerial and Ground Level Measurements of 137Cs in the Marshall Islands

The purpose of this paper is to present and compare two independent sets of environmental gamma spectrometry measurements of¹³⁷ Cs collected nearly 14 years apart. One set of data was collected in 1978 by a contractor of the U.S. Department of Energy during an aerial radiological survey of the northern atolls of the Marshall Islands. That program used helicopter mounted sodium-iodide scintillation detectors; measurements were made from an altitude of 38 m. The second measurement program was conducted from early 1990 through late 1994 by the Republic of the Marshall Islands Government in a survey of the entire nation. This latter program used ground level in situ gamma spectrometry with high-purity germanium detectors. In this comparison, we highlight differences between the findings of the two studies and probable reasons for those differences, though we also discuss the effectiveness of the two techniques for monitoring the ionizing radiation environment. In the comparison of exposure rates from ¹³⁷Cs, fair agreement was noted after accounting for radioactive decay during the intervening years. Though the distributions were statistically different over their entire range, they were nearly identical above 1 R h^-1. There was considerable difference in the estimates of¹³⁷ Cs inventory; the difference was greater at low activity levels with the NaI measurements consistently larger than the in situ measurements. Reasons for this difference is attributed to three factors which differed between the two studies: (1) the assumed penetration of the cesium into the soil column, (2) the assumption of soil density, and (3) differences in the ability of the two different detector systems to reject interfering spectral contributions. Precise measurement of the lowest levels has implications for determining those atolls that exceeded the deposition of ¹³⁷Cs from global fallout. This issue is discussed in addition to a comparison of the findings from the two measurement programs.     

基于问卷调查的四川民众地震灾害响应能力分区评价

基于前期对四川省德阳市民众地震灾害认知与响应特点与规律的问卷调查数据及分析结果,构建了以性别、年龄和受教育程度为核心评价参数的县市社会民众地震灾害响应能力的综合评价模型;然后将该评价模型应用于四川省,实现了对四川省社会民众地震灾害响应能力大小的分县市计算与评价。结果表明,四川省东部县市民众的地震灾害响应能力普遍比西部县市民众大,省会成都市周围的区、县(市)居民的地震灾害响应能力普遍较强,西部三个自治州民众的响应能力普遍较差,其中,成都市青羊区民众的响应能力最强,凉山彝族自治州金阳县民众的能力最弱,全省呈现出以成都市各区县(市)为中心向周围地区递减的总体趋势。     

The social cost of carbon revisited

An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is crucial to climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach uses an integrated assessment model (IAM) to simulate time paths for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, its impact on temperature, and resulting reductions in GDP. I have argued that IAMs have deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I present an approach to estimating an average SCC, which I argue can be a useful guide for policy. I rely on a survey of experts to elicit opinions regarding (1) probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, but not the causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avert an extreme outcome, i.e., a large climate-induced reduction in GDP. The average SCC is the ratio of the present value of lost GDP from an extreme outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert that outcome. I discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of confidence in their answers yields lower SCCs, $80 to $100/mt, but still well above the IAM-based estimates used by the U.S. government.     

Diversity of hydric soils in North Carolina,USA

Hydric soils are used as supportive evidence for wetland delineations by federal and state agencies and by the private sector in North Carolina, USA. An analysis of hydric soil distribution and hydric soil characteristics was conducted with county soil surveys and soil taxonomy of the USA. Approximately 100 hydric soils have been used for soil mapping in North Carolina, and they represent seven of the ten soil orders in soil taxonomy. An estimated 23% (2.9 million ha) of the land surface area in North Carolina supports hydric soils. Approximately 96% of the known hydric soil acreage was found in the coastal plain of North Carolina. Over one-third of the soils were hydric Ultisols, which represented close to 10% of the land surface area. The other soil orders with extensive hydric soil acreage included Histosols, Inceptisols, and Entisols. The soil orders were separated into great groups of soil taxonomy to discuss soil profile characteristics. Landscape positions and associated wetland communities were also presented. In North Carolina, a statewide inventory of wetlands does not exist and soil surveys offer a resource for a first approximation of wetland boundaries.     

Space-time modeling for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey

The Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey (MTHS) is a postseason mail survey conducted by the Missouri Department of Conservation. The 1996 MTHS provides information concerning the number of turkeys harvested by hunters on each day and the total number of trips made to the counties by these hunters on each day of the hunting season. The success rates are then found from this information. Small sample sizes produce large standard errors for the estimates at the county level. We use a Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear model to estimate daily hunting success rates at the county level. The model includes an autoregressive process for the days of the hunting season and spatially correlated random geographic effects. The computations are performed using Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. Results show that there are significant spatial corelations between counties and correlations between days of the hunting season. The estimates are close to the frequency estimates at the state level and much more stable at the county level.     

MIP系统在某挥发性氯代烃污染地块调查中的应用

针对我国挥发性有机污染地块调查评估中存在的采样缺失、成本高及周期长等问题,选择华北地区某挥发性氯代烃污染地块为研究对象,采用现行调查方法与基于膜界面探针(MIP)系统快速调查技术联合使用的方式,现场完成场地钻探调查点位4个(土壤样品36个),MIP系统调查点位11个(验证点位4个),以研究MIP验证点位检测电信号值与其对应场地钻探点位的地层信息、实验室检测数据之间的相关性,以及使用MIP电信号值模拟地块地层和污染空间的分布特征。结果表明,MIP系统检测的土壤电导率电信号值(EC)能够更为详尽地表征地块的地层结构信息;在地块范围内的同一种土质中,MIP系统的专用卤素检测器电信号值(XSD)与实验室检测数据拟合度相对较高(R²>0.99);MIP系统快速调查技术与现行调查方法联合使用能够快速且高效表征调查地块内VCHs的污染空间分布特征。本研究结果可为MIP系统快速调查技术在挥发性有机污染地块调查评估中的应用提供参考。     

南岳衡山国内旅游客源市场调查分析

对南岳衡山旅游客源市场进行调查分析，可为其旅游产业定位、旅游开发建设的阶段定位、旅游基础设施资源定位、旅游产品开发定位、旅游从业人员定位提供依据，从而推动整个衡山旅游业的发展，并促进其经济发展．本文通过对南岳衡山客源市场的调查分析，提出了对其市场开发定位及开拓策略的建议．     

航空遥感地震灾害信息的快速提取

航空遥感地震灾害信息的快速提取是地震灾害损失快速评估的关键技术。遥感与地理信息系统的结合应用使得震害调查快速而又正确。本文重点论述了震害地类的特性与建立解译模型的原则、方法与不同种类信息源所采用的二套技术方案,并比较分析了二套技术方案各自的优势,探讨地震灾害信息快速提取的技术方法。     

Feeling interrupted—Being responsive: How online messages relate to affect at work

Being constantly connected to others via e‐mail and other online messages is increasingly typical for many employees. In this paper, we develop and test a model that specifies how interruptions by online messages relate to negative and positive affect. We hypothesize that perceived interruptions by online messages predict state negative affect via time pressure and that perceived interruptions predict state positive affect via responsiveness to these online messages and perceived task accomplishment. A daily survey study with 174 employees (a total of 811 day‐level observations) provided support for our hypotheses at the between‐person and within‐person level. In addition, perceived interruptions showed a negative direct association with perceived task accomplishment. Our study highlights the importance of being responsive to online messages and shows that addressing only the negative effects of perceived interruptions does not suffice to understand the full impact of interruptions by online messages in modern jobs.