Short-term Model of the Production of Construction Aggregates in Taiwan Based on Artificial Neural Networks

BACKGROUND: Taiwan's geography and limited stock of sandstone have caused sandstone resources to gradually decline to the point of exhaustion after long-term excavation. Moreover, the Taiwanese government has continuously increased the amount of land area near rivers that cannot be excavated to facilitate riverbed remediation and promote conservation of water resources. Accordingly, predicting and managing the annual production of construction aggregates in future construction projects, and dealing appropriately with some thorny problems, for instance, demand that excess supply, excessive excavation, unregulated excavation, and the consequent environmental damage, will significantly affect the efficient use of natural resources in a manner that accords with the national policy of Sustainable Development (SD). METHODS:. This study establishes an empirical model for forecasting the annual production of future construction aggregates using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), based on 15 relevant socio-economic indicators, such as indicator of annual consumption of cement. A sensitivity analysis is then performed on these indicators. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: This work applies ANN to estimate the annual production of construction aggregates; the estimates, the verification of the model and the sensitivity analysis are all acceptable. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis results indicate that the annual consumption of cement is the indicator that most strongly influences the production of construction aggregates, as well as whether construction waste can be recycled and steel structures can be used in buildings, helping to reduce the future production of construction aggregates in Taiwan. CONCLUSIONS: The elaborate prediction methodology presented in this study avoids some of the weaknesses or limitations of conventional linear statistics, linear programming or system dynamics. Additionally, the results not only provide a short-term prediction of the production of construction aggregates in Taiwan, but also provide a viable and flexible means of verifying quality certification of the production data of construction aggregates in the future by incorporating those relevant socio-economic indicators. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: The continuity and quality of the database of relevant indicators used in this study should be closely scrutinized in order to ensure the SD means of exploiting resources.     

现代农业思潮与农业生态环境保护

通过对各类现代农业思潮的产生背景，思想出发点以及所倡导实施的技术体系的分析，阐述了现代农业思潮的实质是人类环保意识的觉醒，是人们对现代常规农业反思的结果，并指出现代农业思潮有深刻的思想根源。     

中国富营养化湖泊的生物修复

描述了中国湖泊富营养化污染现状 ,论述了湖泊富营养化形成的机理、生物修复富营养化湖泊 (尤其是去除水体和底泥碳、氮、磷 )的理论依据 ;提出了修复湖泊富营养化的技术途径 ,阐明了笔者对机械清淤和生物修复各自具有的优势和缺陷的看法。     

中国发展循环经济的研究

通过分析我国实施可持续发展战略面临的问题以及发展循环经济的基础和优势，指出发展循环经济是中国走可持续发展道路的必然选择。同时，提出了在我国发展循环经济的对策。     

基于GIS和RS的晋江市土地利用变化与可持续利用研究

采用GIS和遥感技术，在拟订土地分类系统的基础上，对1996和2001年晋汀市土地资源进行遥感解译，得到这两期1：10万土地利用现状图及数据库，分析了晋江市土地利用类型的构成与比例，以及土地利用面积动态变化状况。结果表明，晋汀市自1996年以来，城镇居民点与工矿用地扩展较大，面积增幅达5312．55hm^2，交通面积增加1507．02hm^2，林地而积增加了293．05hm^2，园地面积也增加了4．17hm^2；但耕地面积锐减，减少面积为6419．43hm^2，减幅为14．6％，其去向主要是建设用地、生态退耕、园地和池塘用地。在此基础上，认为土地利用变化存在的主要问题是：耕地面积锐减；土地利用结构小平衡；生态环境恶化等。应采取针对性的土地可持续发展措施，重视土地管理制度创新和土地利用的优化配置。     

城市生态研究概述

本文阐述了城市生态学的起源、发展过程和研究内容，以及国内外城市生态学研究进展；研究了我国城市主要生态环境问题及对策。并提出生态城市是人类可持续发展城市的理想模式。     

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Cycling in Shrimp Ponds and the Measures for Sustainable Management

Six ponds of age 3 were selected 45 km north from Suzhou in the Tailake region, and research conducted on nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in P. vannanmei(Penaeus vannanme) ponds and M. nipponense(Macrobrachium nipponense) hatchery ponds under normal management. Two treatments each had three replications. The results confirmed that feed was the major path of nitrogen and phosphorus input, each accounted for 61.24%(193.81 kg ha^–1) and 81.08%(45.20 kg ha^–1) of the total nitrogen and phosphorus input for P. vannanme ponds; the values for M. nipponense ponds were 43.93%(86.31 kg ha^–1) and 57.67%(14.61 kg ha^–1), respectively. Water pumped into ponds contributed on average 83.57 kg ha^–1 nitrogen and 8.48 kg ha^–1 phosphorus for P. vannanmei ponds, and 87.48 kg ha^–1 nitrogen and 7.00 kg ha^–1 phosphorus for M. nipponense hatchery ponds. Shrimp harvest recovered 102.81 kg ha^–1 nitrogen (32.94% of the total nitrogen input) and 7.94 kg ha^–1phosphorus (14.23% of the total phosphorus input) for P. vannanme ponds; and 43.94 kg ha^–1 nitrogen and 4.46 kg ha^–1phosphorus for M. nipponense hatchery ponds. The sum of nitrogen losses through volatilization, denitrification and sedimentation was 173.62 and 122.39 kg ha^–1, 54.86% and 62.29% of the total nitrogen input for P. vannanme ponds and M. nipponense hatchery ponds, respectively. Sediment accumulated 41.46 and 14.63 kg ha^–1 phosphorus, 74.37% and 64.85% of the total phosphorus input for P. vannanm ponds and M. nipponense hatchery ponds. Draining and seeping caused 40.06 kg ha^–1 nitrogen (12.66% of total nitrogen input) and 6.36 kg ha^–1 phosphorus (11.40% of total phosphorus input) loss to the surrounding water from P. vannanme ponds in 114 days; 30.14 kg ha^–1nitrogen (15.34% of the total input) and 4.45 kg ha^–1 phosphorus (17.57% of the total input) to channel water from M. nipponense hatchery ponds in 87 days, respectively. Countermeasures for sustainable pond management include improving feeds and feeding, sediment treatments, machine aerating, chemicals with no pollution, and integrated fish-shrimp cultivation. Management of water resources for pond and methods to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus loading into surrounding water from drainage are elucidated.     

我国无人岛保护与持续利用途径研究:生境更新的方法及应用

通过对我国无人岛保护和开发现状及其开发模式演变趋势的分析 ,阐明生境更新的内涵和方法 ,提出 1种新型的保护性海岛开发模式 ,包括建设自然保护区 ,实施生态旅游 ,开发海洋牧场、港口等。按照保护性开发和生态恢复等原则 ,运用生境更新的原理和方法 ,将我国无人岛划分为生态型、开发型、居民迁出型及国防型 4种类型 ,以利于实行有效的分类管理。     

岳阳市城市扩张期环境生态可持续发展

在已有可持续发展理论的基础上，以岳阳市环境生态为研究对象，利用主成分分析法、层次分析法（AHP）和德尔斐的方法计算和分析在城市化过程中环境生态变化情况，论述了这一过程中环境生态存在的问题和产生的原因，对目前小城市向中等城市转变过程中避免和解决环境生态问题提供了例证。     

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assessing the Sustainability of Freshwater Crayfish Harvesting in Madagascar

Abstract:  There is growing interest among conservation decision makers in promoting harvesting of forest products as an incentive for communities to retain forest cover. Assessments of the sustainability of existing harvests are essential for implementing such policies. Madagascar's endemic freshwater crayfish, Astacoides spp., are harvested throughout their range. Despite their importance to human communities, Madagascar's crayfish, like much of the island's freshwater biodiversity, are poorly known, and there is concern that the harvest may be unsustainable. We investigated sustainability of the crayfish harvest in and around Ranomafana National Park in eastern Madagascar, focusing on the heavily harvested A. granulimanus. Several villages around the park have traditional taboos against selling crayfish, resulting in widely varying levels of crayfish exploitation. We used two approaches to assess sustainability of the harvest. First we used participatory mapping combined with a geographic information system analysis to produce a spatially accurate map of harvesting intensity. We then carried out mark-and-recapture sampling at 74 sites across a range of harvest intensities to test whether the level of harvesting was a significant predictor of crayfish density and structure. Second, we used size-structured matrix population models to estimate the forest area necessary to provide the observed annual harvest from one harvesting village and compared this estimate with the area available to the harvesters. Our findings show that the crayfish harvest in Ranomafana may be sustainable under current socioeconomic conditions, suggesting that A. granulimanus is less vulnerable to overexploitation than previously thought. We emphasize the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to assessing sustainability involving both ecological information about the harvested species and socioeconomic data about the level and spatial pattern of the harvest.