Discussion of Population Modernization Theory and Actuality Analysis of Population Modernization in China

Abstract

This paper discusses the basic concept and connotation of population modernization.

The author briefly analyzes the actuality of population modernization in China, gives some advice and puts forward some measures.     

西部水资源开发利用风险现状评价

我国实施西部大开发战略后,西部水资源开发利用问题变得越来越突出.为了弄清楚西部水资源开发利用存在的风险现状,本文在风险概念的基础上探讨了水资源开发利用风险概念和影响因素,并构建了西部水资源开发利用风险评价指标体系.根据水资源系统表现出多模态、突跳和发散的基本突变特征,论述了运用突变理论评价水资源开发利用风险具有一定的可行性,将突变理论引入到水资源开发利用风险评价中,对西部水资源开发利用风险进行评价.首先对各项风险评价指标按照重要性排序,并对各指标值进行无量纲化;然后利用突变模型的归一公式和突变模型的评价准则进行递归运算,最后求出各层指标相对风险值(突变隶属度),将评价结果与风险等级对照,综合判断和分析各层各项指标相对风险状况.计算结果表明:在西部12个省份中,各层指标的风险值差异显著,但是水资源开发利用综合风险值分布在0 66-0.92之间,总体上属于中高度风险水平,12省份风险从小到大排序为:西藏→陕西→重庆→四川→青海→云南→贵州→广西→内蒙→甘肃→新疆→宁夏,这一结果与西部12省份水资源开发利用实际状况相符,可以为西部大开发过程水资源合理有效利用和管理提供风险决策参考依据.     

Circular Economy Development Mode Based on System Theory

Abstract

The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries after they had summed up many experiences and lessons from traditional economy. It is an entirety and has many layers. It keeps an open and dynamic balance. Because the system theory is the theoretical foundation of circular economy, we should systemically analyze and study circular economy from the macroscopic view, correctly grasp its operational laws, improve its service functions, and realize human beings' sustainable development. The paper introduces the content and general characteristics of the system theory and the idea of circular economy. Then it analyzes circular economy based on the system theory. The paper concludes that the integration of circular economy and the system theory can promote the functions of circular economy.     

Game analysis of Chinese stakeholders in collective forest rights system reform

In the current stage of Chinese forest ownership reform, the central and local governments as well as the forest farmers play different roles with variations in their expected returns. Managing these respective relationships between the forestry stakeholders to maximize their benefits while actively engaging each stakeholder in the collective forest ownership reform process has become an important issue. This study uses the game theory methodology to analyze the relationship between the different reform stakeholders and then builds on the forest farmers’ participation in the reform model process at the reform movement micro-level. This model calculates the forest products equilibrium marketing sales and the government subsidies provided to the forest farmers, when the forest farmers willingly participate in the reform process. It will provide a reliable basis for formulation of government policies which positively impacts Chinese forestry reform.     

Green shipping practices in the shipping industry: Conceptualization, adoption, and implications

There have been increasing concerns about the adverse impacts on the environment caused by cargo movement in international trade. Different stakeholders ranging from shippers and carriers to government bodies and international communities have expressed worries about the environmental impacts brought by shipping related activities. The pollution and waste created in the shipping processes have imposed environmental burdens and accelerated resource depletion. The situation is set to worsen in the face of intensifying trade globalization, which has contributed to sustained growth in international shipping activities. To help protect the environment, many shipping firms have taken the initiative to find ways to lessen the environmental damage of their operations while enhancing their performance. The objective of this study is to examine the environmental awareness and the environmental measures taken in the shipping industry. We propose a conceptual framework for evaluating green shipping practices and develop several propositions stating the conditions under which shipping firms would behave in an environmentally responsible manner. We conclude with managerial and policy implications of the conceptual framework to promote green shipping practices in the shipping industry.     

Designing a mixed performance measurement system for environmental supply chain management using evolutionary game theory and balanced scorecard: A case study of an auto industry supply chain

This paper proposes a mixed performance measurement system using a combination of evolutionary game theory and the balanced scorecard (BSC) in environmental supply chain management (ESCM) that measures and evaluates business operations using the four different perspectives of finance, customer, internal business process, and learning and growth. ESCM plays an important role in the supply chain which leads to the reduction, reuse and recycling of resources involved in both upstream and downstream activities. This paper presents guidance for practical managers in evaluating and measuring ESCM by developing a knowledge-based BSC and evolutionary game theory. The primary purpose of this paper is to apply the proposed method in a case study to one of Iran's biggest auto industry supply chain SAIPA Company. The results of this study indicate that the adoption of ESCM, in the absence of regulatory pressures and cost-saving measures is triggered by public pressures and its implementation is limited by organizational factors and strategic myopia.     

Estimating dyad association probability under imperfect and heterogeneous detection

In animal behaviour studies, association indices estimate the proportion of time two individuals (i.e. a dyad) spend in association. In terms of dyads, all association indices can be interpreted as estimators of the probability that a dyad is associated. However, traditional indices rely on the assumptions that the probability to detect a particular individual (p) is either approximately one and/or homogeneous between associated and not associated individuals. Based on marked individuals we develop a likelihood based model to estimate the probability a dyad is associated (ψ) accounting for p < 1 and possibly varying between associated and not associated individuals. The proposed likelihood based model allows for both individual and dyadic missing observations. In addition, the model can easily be extended to incorporate covariate information for modeling p and ψ. A simulation study showed that the likelihood based model approach yield reasonably unbiased estimates, even for low and heterogeneous individual detection probabilities, while, in contrast, traditional indices showed moderate to strong biases. The application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a real data set collected from a population of Commerson's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus commersonii) in Patagonia Argentina. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the proposed model and its applicability in animal behaviour and ecological studies.     

Impact of excess and harmful radiation on energy budgets in scleractinian corals

Using dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory, this paper explores the potential of excess and harmful radiation, notably UV, to cause changes in performance and, ultimately, bleaching in scleractinian corals for a range of ambient nitrogen and (beneficial) photosynthetically active radiation levels. Two negative impacts of radiation are considered: a reduction in the capacity of the symbiont to generate energy through photosynthesis (defined in this paper as photoinhibition); an increase in the costs for the symbiont to remain viable due to repair of damage (defined in this paper as photodamage). Model predictions indicate that although both types of impact reduce the growth potential of host and symbiont, photoinhibition predominantly affects host features, except at very low ambient nitrogen levels, under which conditions the severity of nitrogen limitation is so strong that a reduction in photosynthetic rates due to photoinhibition has minimal impact. In steady state, photoinhibition leads to a reduction in host biomass, and an increase in symbiont density, implying that photoinhibition (as defined in this paper) is unlikely to cause bleaching. In contrast, the impact of photodamage is mostly affecting symbiont features, including a decline in symbiont density. Thus, photodamage may contribute to coral bleaching. Furthermore, the model predicts that, with both photoinhibition and photodamage, an increasing ratio of harmful to beneficial radiation accelerates the suppression of growth rates of symbiont and host, implying that coral health deteriorates progressively faster with increasing harmful radiation, such as UVb.     

基于信息熵的垫片密封模糊可靠度

在充分考虑垫片密封的随机性和模糊性的基础上,提出了垫片密封模糊可靠性的概念.基于信息熵理论,按模糊泄漏率导出垫片密封的模糊可靠度计算公式,并用算例说明了公式的应用.     

船舶溢油应急反应人的可靠性分析研究

为减小船舶溢油事故应急反应人员失误概率,提升应急处置效果,在对应急人员可靠性主要影响因素识别的基础上,利用模糊贝叶斯网络(BN)建立船舶溢油应急人的可靠性分析(HRA)模型,将应急反应流程抽象为可进行概率推算的BN,实现单个应急任务和全过程人的可靠性的量化评估,并依据该模型对一起船舶溢油事故进行实例研究。结果表明,首先模糊集值专家评估较好地解决应急人员可靠性情境依赖性强,难以量化评估的问题;其次,BN卓越的概率推理性能实现由单个应急任务向全过程人的可靠性的推算;最后得到应急反应人的可靠性主要取决于关键应急任务的完成情况和相关情境因素的影响。