利用航空γ能谱资料快速预测环境氡浓度

航空γ能谱测量方法是核辐射区域本地调查,区域环境中核辐射污染调查和评价的有效方法。文中不同于以往的利用航空γ能谱测量数据换算地面(1 m高)空气吸收剂量率的方法,而是运用大地-大气氡交换理论模型及氡的析出率理论,预测区域空气中氡浓度,并可计算出区域氡地质潜势。计算结果表明方法快速、高效,具有较好的实用价值。     

环境污染系统的灰色投入产出模型

将投入产出模型与灰色理论结合起来，建立了以灰色预测为基础的环境污染系统灰色投入产出模型，探索了如何从污染物总量控制目标出发来规划和发展生产。     

A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl (  Ninox strenua ).     

城市空气颗粒物开放源理论与治理技术研究进展

城市空气颗粒物开放源已成为大气颗粒物的主要来源之一，它对改善我国城市空气环境质量具有重要意义。开放源是一种复合源类，具有源强不确定和排放不连续等特点。其所排放的主要污染物是扬尘。但目前只有少数的开放源类起尘量可以进行估算。国内外一般对城市空气颗粒物开放源的防治对策有生态环境综合整治或生态修复治理、湿法防尘、将堆放物用覆盖物覆盖或封闭储存等。     

Risk-taking by female ducks: intra- and interspecific tests of nest defense theory

We tested several predictions of nest defense theory by observing variation in flushing distance and probability of nest abandonment within and between six species of waterfowl. In these species, only the females incubate eggs and attend offspring. First, we examined whether flushing distance by females varied in relation to clutch size, stage of incubation, and time of season, after controlling for the number of visits made to nests by observers. Revisits by observers appeared to affect flushing distance by females for reasons unrelated to the relative value of the current clutch. We found that as incubation progressed, females allowed observers to approach more closely before flushing from the nest. In some species, females with larger clutches allowed closer approaches to nests before flushing which was also consistent with nest defense theory. In contrast, time of season (Julian date) did not relate to flushing distance for any species. When species were compared, we found that species with moderate to high yearly mortality and high reproductive output per breeding attempt (e.g., northern shoveler and blue-winged teal) were less likely to abandon nesting attempts and exhibited riskier behavior (remained at nests when approached closely by observers) than species that had lower yearly mortality (e.g., mallard). Our results show that flushing distance and patterns of nest abandonment by female ducks conform to several predictions of nest defense theory.Correspondence to: M.R.L. Forbes     

考虑源头减量的城市生活垃圾管理系统动力学研究

文章根据计划行为理论,使用系统动力学的方法,设计了考虑源头减量的城市生活垃圾管理的系统动力学模型.该模型动态地仿真了管理系统中宏观和微观的因素之间随时间推移的相互作用.通过分析管理模型中各个子模型的仿真结果,说明了源头减量对垃圾管理的重要意义.     

坚持理论与时俱进促进防震减灾事业全面健康发展

本文结合当前共产党员先进性教育活动,贯彻科学发展观,从本地实际出发,就坚持理论,把握规律,创新思路,全面促进防震减灾事业发展的有关理论和实践问题进行了分析、探讨.     

合并财务报表的合并理论与合并范围分析

《合并财务报表》会计准则的发布，使企业集团合并财务报表的编制更加规范。本文主要分析了该准则的合并理论和合并范围，指出合并理论应侧重实体理论，合并范围应强调实质性控制。     

基于突变理论的建筑工人不安全行为研究

为有效减少建筑工人的不安全行为,在分析不安全行为各影响因素的基础上,结合不安全行为形成机理图,从突变理论的全新视角构建建筑工人不安全行为尖点突变模型,验证了该模型诠释建筑工人不安全行为形成规律的合理性,并利用该模型对建筑工人不安全行为形成过程进行分析,解释建筑工人在个体心理和准环境因素交互作用下行为的渐变-突变过程。最后提出了建筑工人不安全行为的防御措施、靶向干预点和补救策略。