从印度洋地震海啸看中国的巨灾风险

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸给沿岸国家造成了严重灾难,其主要原因是缺乏必要的防范。中国历史上巨灾频发,今后仍存在比较严重的巨灾威胁。预测我国有11个巨灾高风险区,巨灾种类主要为特大洪水、大地震、强台风和特大风暴潮以及大区域持续性严重干旱。建立巨灾防御体系是今后我国减灾工作的重心。     

Planar detonation structure for chain-branching kinetics with large activation energy and small initiation rate

The structure of the steady planar detonation wave is analyzed for three-step chain-branching kinetics consistent with hydrogen–air chemistry. The initiation and chain-branching steps are described by an Arrhenius rate. Both are thermally neutral, so that heat release is due to termination. The initiation rate is typically very low and very stiff. As a result, a small fraction of the reactant is consumed in the initiation region, which is very long but ends in an exponential chain-branching explosion. Next, the reactant is rapidly converted into chain-branching radicals, within a very thin zone, which ends when the concentration of the chain-branching radical reaches a peak, because of reactant depletion. Finally, the termination step consumes the chain-branching radicals and releases heat within a region thicker than the peak zone, but much thinner than the initiation region. The analysis is based upon two assumptions: that the chain-branching activation energy is high and that initiation is slow. The structure of the initiation and chain-branching zones is different for post-shock states within or outside the explosion region in the chain-branching diagram. In the former situation, chain-branching is already stronger than termination at the von Neumann point, and vice versa. In the no-explosion case, the initiation zone becomes very long, while the little chain-branching specie produced by initiation is directly converted into product by the termination step. Temperature increases slowly until reaching the explosion curve, when chain-branching becomes stronger than termination. The subsequent structure is similar to the explosion case.     

Two solitudes: post‐tsunami and post‐conflict Aceh

In August 2005, after the devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean Basin, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the cessation of hostilities was signed by Aceh's longstanding adversaries—the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). The tsunami was a major catalyst for ‘disaster diplomacy’—international political pressure, which, this paper argues, was an important ingredient in creating conditions for the MoU, although the situation within Aceh also shaped the peace process. Based on interviews conducted in 2006 and 2007 with government officials, GAM representatives and fighters, and non‐governmental organization staff in Aceh, this paper finds that assistance for tsunami survivors far exceeds that available for conflict survivors and ex‐combatants. The formation of these two solitudes—the tsunami‐affected and the conflict‐affected—compounds challenges for sustaining peace in Aceh. This research points to an enduring lack of livelihoods for former fighters and conflict victims that may threaten a sustainable peace.     

Post‐tsunami relocation of fisher settlements in South Asia: evidence from the Coromandel Coast,India

The tsunami that struck the coasts of India on 26 December 2004 resulted in the large‐scale destruction of fisher habitations. The post‐tsunami rehabilitation effort in Tamil Nadu was directed towards relocating fisher settlements in the interior. This paper discusses the outcomes of a study on the social effects of relocation in a sample of nine communities along the Coromandel Coast. It concludes that, although the participation of fishing communities in house design and in allocation procedures has been limited, many fisher households are satisfied with the quality of the facilities. The distance of the new settlements to the shore, however, is regarded as an impediment to engaging in the fishing profession, and many fishers are actually moving back to their old locations. This raises questions as to the direction of coastal zone policy in India, as well as to the weight accorded to safety (and other coastal development interests) vis‐à‐vis the livelihood needs of fishers.     

The role of natural disaster in individual and relational adjustment in Sri Lankan mothers following the 2004 tsunami

The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between maternal mental health distress symptoms, including depression and post‐traumatic stress disorder, the extent to which the presence of a child's disaster‐related physical health problem(s) have interfered with daily functioning, and family cohesion over time among Sri Lankan mothers who survived the tsunami on 26 December 2004. Study variables were measured using a self‐report questionnaire administered approximately four months after the event and three years later in summer 2008. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were conducted. Path analysis was employed to assess the relationships between the key variables over time and the correlations in the study variables at each time point. Among other findings, the results of the path analysis indicated that post‐traumatic stress symptom distress four months after the disaster significantly predicted variance in family cohesion three years later. Clinical and empirical research implications are presented and discussed.     

WIND GENERATED WAVES IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: The study of wind generated waves is important because waves affect sediment resuspension in lakes. Measurements of wind velocity and wave elevation were made at three different stations in Lake Okeechobee. Significant wave heights were computed using a direct count from the recorded data, and verified by the root-mean-square value approach. The correlation between wind stress and significant wave height also was analyzed. The data revealed a strong correlation. In addition to field measurements, a Boussinesq-type wind-wave model was developed to simulate wind-generated, long-propagating waves. This model included the effects of wind stress and bottom viscous dissipation. Wave elevation and velocity field were evaluated numerically. A six-day simulation using 1996 wind data was conducted. Simulated significant wave heights were found to agree reasonably well with measured values. A predictive wind-wave model provides information about wind generated waves, which is used to compute bottom shear stresses required for sediment resuspension studies.     

What is the lesson from the unprecedented event over antarctica in 2002

Varotsos (2002a,b), suggested that both the smaller-sized ozone hole over Antarctica and its splitting in two holes in September 2002 occurred due to an unprecedented major sudden stratospheric warming caused by very strong planetary waves propagated in the southern hemisphere. Subsequently, a NASA press release of December 6, 2002, also reported the prevalence of very strong planetary waves in Antarctica. The aim of this Letter is to further discuss the morphology of the Antarctic ozone hole, to detect the causes that allowed the Antarctic stratosphere to exhibit this exceptional warming and to examine what it denotes about its mechanisms. Concerning the morphology, among the principal findings is that the ozone hole split occurred not only in the stratosphere but extended in the lower altitudes (upper troposphere). As to the causes of the major sudden stratospheric warming of 2002, a comparison with the previous warmings in Antarctica since 1964 is made. The smaller-sized Antarctic ozone hole of 2002 is approximately equal to that of 1988 when a strong sudden stratospheric warming occurred. If only the destruction of ozone by chlorofluorocarbons resulted in the delayed sudden stratospheric warmings in Antarctica, then the early sudden stratospheric warmings of 1988 and 2002 would not have occurred, since chlorofluorocarbon loading of the stratosphere has remained relatively stable in recent years. Furthermore, it appears that the El Nino characteristics in 1988 and 2002 are not similar.     

One-step estimation method and nomogram to predict safety distances of pressurized gas pipelines from blast sources

Pressurized gas pipelines may be endangered by accidental or intentional activities causing excess ground vibrations leading to failure. Thus, many papers have been published on this issue, yet most of these efforts suffer from complexity and inability to ascertain that all engaged factors are taken into account. These factors are attributed, namely, to explosion source, explosion-ground interaction, energy transfer through the ground, ground-pipeline interaction, and response of the pipeline. The deterministic method developed previously by the author has derived useful prediction mathematical formulas that can be used to calculate, either the stand-off distance of purposefully used explosives, or the maximum quantity of explosives to be used at a given distance, or the equivalent stress of a pipeline induced by an explosive charge at a given standoff distance. The method can also be applied to accidental blast events in factories or other activities. Yet, the complex formulas developed are hard to be used in the field and a simpler approach is needed to facilitate and accelerate in-field estimations. Thus, a nomogram was prepared to make the safety estimations easy and fast and taking into account all engaged critical factors starting from the explosion source through the integrity of the structure.     

自然灾害灾后重建技术及实践的研究进展

灾后重建是在灾害体发生之时及发生之后,采取应急救援、灾害管理,以及灾后评估、救助、规划等一系列过程,是一个典型的系统工程,可划分为前期应急重建、中期恢复重建及后期发展重建3部分。以自然灾害为主要研究对象,在分析中外关于灾后重建文献的基础之上,归纳了灾后重建的系统特征,介绍了灾后重建技术和实践的研究进展。灾后重建技术包括灾害分类分级、应急救援、灾后评估、灾害管理和重建规划5个方面,灾后重建实践研究分为地震、飓风、洪水和海啸4个方面,并对中外的灾后重建研究发展进行了展望。     

分层水环境曝气诱导形成内波的过程与特性

采用分层水库模型,在平均温度梯度为0.37℃/cm条件下,开展了系统的曝气诱导内波的中试研究.分析了曝气诱导形成内波的过程,探究了曝气诱导形成内波的类型,重点揭示了曝气扰动源形式和跃温层厚度对内波形成过程和特性的影响.实验结果表明：扬水曝气产生的气水两相流是一种非定常的周期性扰动源,气水两相流的尾迹带动整个模型水体上下振动,这种振动在分层水体跃温层处诱导形成内波.从激发源角度上说,它是一种尾迹效应波.气弹释放周期在44.06～58.69s之间时,内波波高达到最大,当气弹释放周期达到180s时不能形成连续的内波;曝气器出流口增大,内波波高、周期呈增大趋势.分层水体的跃温层厚度也影响内波的形成,相同温度梯度条件下,随着跃温层厚度的增加,内波的波高、周期随之增大.