ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

AN INTEGRATED ONE‐DIMENSIONAL AND TWO‐DIMENSIONAL URBAN STORMWATER FLOOD SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Flash flooding is the rapid flooding of low lying areas caused by the stormwater of intense rainfall associated with thunderstorms. Flash flooding occurs in many urban areas with relatively flat terrain and can result in severe property damage as well as the loss of lives. In this paper, an integrated one‐dimensional (1‐D) and two‐dimensional (2‐D) hydraulic simulation model has been established to simulate stormwater flooding processes in urban areas. With rainfall input, the model simulates 2‐D overland flow and 1‐D flow in underground stormwater pipes and drainage channels. Drainage channels are treated as special flow paths and arranged along one or more sides of a 2‐D computational grid. By using irregular computation grids, the model simulates unsteady flooding and drying processes over urban areas with complex drainage systems. The model results can provide spatial flood risk information (e.g., water depth, inundation time and flow velocity during flooding). The model was applied to the City of Beaumont, Texas, and validated with the recorded rainfall and runoff data from Tropical Storm Allison with good agreement.     

Results from Three Field Tracer Experiments on the Neighbourhood Scale in the City of Birmingham UK

The physical processes governing flow and pollutantdispersion at the neighbourhood scale, a spatial scaleintermediate between the street scale and the city scale, is notwell understood. Furthermore, it is not clear whether a traditional approach using averaged characteristics such as theaerodynamic roughness length is sufficient to predict the concentration field at this scale. To investigate pollutant dispersion in a real urban area, three field experiments were designed within the UK-URGENT programme sponsored by NERC. Theexperiments were performed in the City of Birmingham using a finite duration release of inert, non-toxic and non-depositingtracers, vis. perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH) and perfluoromethylcyclopentane (PMCP). Measurements were taken using air bag samplers placedin an arc at 3.5 km (first experiment) and 1 km (second andthird experiments) from the source; some trap samplers wereplaced outside the main arc in the outskirts of the city. Measurements were analysed in the laboratory using anovel gas-chromatography technique. Data so obtained werecompared with predictions from a simple steady-state modeland a time-dependent model. The concentration-time serieswere very asymmetrical with a sharp rise, a plateau followedby a relatively slow decrease and finally a long-livedplateau above (or possibly very slow decrease to) thebackground level.     

Estimation of Cumulative Frequency Distribution for Carbon Monoxide Concentration from Wind-Speed Data, in Buenos Aires (Argentina)

In this article we apply and test a methodology to estimate cumulative frequency distribution for air pollutant concentration from wind-speed data. We use the inverse relationship after Simpson et al. (Atmospheric Environment, 19, 75–82, 1985) between the opposing percentile values in the statistical distributions for air pollutant concentrations and wind-speed data. This relationship is valid, irrespective of the statistical distributions of both variables, if an inverse relationship between them is also applicable. The available data are five years of 8-h average carbon monoxide concentration and 8-h mean wind-speed, observed in Buenos Aires (Argentina). The performance of the obtained empirical expressions in estimating cumulative frequency distributions for 8-h CO is statistically evaluated. The results show that it is possible to obtain an acceptable cumulative frequency distribution for 8-h CO concentration at the site if the cumulative frequency distribution for wind-speed is known. Q–Q plots show a good agreement between estimated and observed values. From our data, the mean relative error of the estimations was found to be as much as 8.0%.     

Potential and Shortcomings of Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Providing Meteorological Data for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting

The last decade progress in numericalweather prediction (NWP) modelling and studies of urbanatmospheric processes for providing meteorological data forurban air pollution forecasting is analysed on examples ofseveral European meteorological centres. Modern nested NWP models are utilising land-use databasesdown to 1 km resolution or finer, and are approaching thenecessary horizontal and vertical resolution suitable forcity scale. The recent scientific developments in the fieldof urban atmospheric physics and the growing availabilityof high-resolution urban surface characteristics datapromise further improvements of the capability of NWPmodels for this aim. A strategy to improve NWP data forthe urban air pollution forecasting is suggested.     

CFD Prediction of Air Quality in the Area between Two City Vehicular Tunnels Considering Moving Cars

Concentration fields of different pollutants that spread outside two roadtunnels predicted with a CFD code will be presented. The solution domain represents the city area located between two tunnel outlets – tunnel Strahov and tunnel Mrazovka in Prague. The vicinity of both tunnels is a heavily built up area with tall buildings forming typical street canyons. The CFD modelling predicts the situation after the tunnel Mrazovka will be finished and traffic will increase considerably between both tunnels. Namely, an interest was given to the prediction of dispersion of emissions leaving both tunnel and the area touched by the traffic. For the CFD predictions, a method previously developed for moving vehicles was used. The method uses combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches to moving objects and is capable of modeling different speeds and traffic rates of cars as well as traffic-induced turbulence. Influence of several meteorological parameters was studied, namely wind speed and direction and traffic parameters, like traffic rates and speed of cars. The method separates contributions from different sources to the total concentration field, namely from background, tunnel outlet and roadway. Results are presented in the form of horizontal and vertical concentration fields of NO_x.     

绵阳市大气降水pH值时空分布及酸雨成因研究

通过对绵阳市9个测点1998－1999年大气降水监测数据的统计分析，并结合历史数据，对大气降水pH值的时空分布及酸雨成因进行了研究。结果表明：绵阳市大气降水酸化严重，除主要受本地区大气污染影响外，还受大气中、长距离输送的影响。     

城市旅游环境承载力及其旅游资源空间管理

UTECC主要充当控制旅游需求的功能。UTECC的降低最明显的后果就是损害了城市的生态环境质量,紧接着会导致旅游需求的降低。为了实现城市旅游可持续发展,城市的旅游需求不能超过旅游环境承载力。通常对城市旅游资源过度需求的空间管理方法主要有5种。本文在AlanCollins(1999年)研究的基础上提出了城市旅游环境承载力的概念,并借助城市旅游资源过度需求管理方面的理论对如何使用及防止滥用城市旅游环境承载力作了初步研究。     

细水雾抑制熄灭室内火灾的有效性模拟实验研究

采用模拟实验的方法，通过改变实验条件，研究室内不同种类固体可燃物，处于不同的位置时，细水雾的灭火有效性。研究发现：当火源位于细水雾的作用范围内时，灭火时间较短，灭火性能较高；当火源位于细水雾的防护区域之外时，灭火有效性显著降低。增加细水雾的流量可以减少灭火时间。但是对一定功率的火源，存在临界流量，超过了临界流量，再增加细水雾的流量，并不能有效减少灭火时间，因此设计细水雾灭火系统时，应当优化上述影响因素，达到最佳的灭火性能。     

地下油料储存库火灾初期模式与安全性研究

使用模拟的地下油料储存库装置,对地下油料储存库火灾初期模式进行了实验研究.结合油料地下储存库火灾防治和安全性要求对实验结果进行了分析.结果表明,模拟油料地下储存库起火后,火灾初期模式与实验初始条件、边界条件和装置结构直接相关.在一定条件下,模拟油料地下储存库内出现爆燃向爆轰的转变;不同的环境条件下,火灾的模式不同;油料地下储存库内火灾的发展,油料的持续燃烧及发生燃烧的部位受通气条件和洞内复杂的烟气流向等条件控制.