危险货物道路运输系统的风险评价

分析了危险货物道路运输系统的风险影响因素,在此基础上建立了风险评价指标体系,并采用专家咨询法确定了各指标的权重,提出了使用模糊数学综合评价法对危险货物道路运输系统进行风险评价,并通过实例对评价模型进行了验证.结果表明,利用模糊综合评价的方法对危险货物道路运输系统的风险进行研究,可以为危险货物道路运输企业和交通安全监管部门对危险货物道路运输采取有效的安全控制措施,提供有益的参考.     

FACTORS AFFECTING WATERWAY INVESTMENT DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: There are many factors, other than economic efficiency, which must be considered in judging the merits of proposed investments in the inland navigation system. No satisfactory formula exists for deciding the net worth of public investments in water resources projects. Such a measure would not be accepted because these investments can serve conflicting goals. Political, rather than technical, judgments are required to resolve these goal conflicts.     

ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷研究进展

为构建更加符合驾驶员认知特性的出行信息环境,提高驾驶员出行信息服务水平,对ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷研究进展进行系统分析与评述.首先阐述了认知负荷的理论基础,随后分析了ATIS环境下驾驶员认知负荷的影响因素,同时分类解析了驾驶员内在认知负荷、外在认知负荷与相关认知负荷的产生根源,并对认知负荷的形成机理进行了分析;系统评述了驾驶员认知负荷的测量方法,最后基于驾驶员信息认知负荷提出了ATIS优化对策.结果表明:年龄、性别、受教育程度、月收入、出行经验是影响驾驶员认知负荷的主要因素;道路交通标志的版面设计与驾驶员的标志视认时间关联密切;驾驶过程中拨打手机及使用车载终端均会分散驾驶员注意力,增加驾驶员的信息认知负荷;较高的车速与音频播放等环境会对驾驶员的信息认知能力提出更高要求.     

船舶载运煤炭甲烷释放特性研究

为了研究船舶载运煤炭甲烷释放规律,基于Fick扩散定律建立了货舱甲烷体积分数计算模型,分析了不同扩散系数条件下甲烷释放量与时间的关系,确定了空隙系数的取值范围,通过对某船舶煤炭运输过程中甲烷体积分数随船实测对模型进行了验证.结果表明,货舱甲烷体积分数随运输时间增加而增加,扩散系数为1.0×10-8 cm2/s时,甲烷释放量达到极大值;煤炭的空隙系数基本在0.53～ 0.57 m3/t之间.当煤炭极限甲烷解吸量为1.6 ～ 3.83 m3/t时,货舱甲烷最高体积分数在0.53％ ～ 1.22％,5个货舱中4个货舱的甲烷释放量与理论计算相吻合,1个货舱的最大甲烷释放量高出理论计算量6％,船运煤炭过程中的甲烷释放计算模型与实测结果较为吻合.对于甲烷体积分数超限的货舱,及时通风可使甲烷体积分数迅速降低,有效地解决船运煤炭过程中甲烷体积分数超限的问题.     

危险品运输网络优化设计研究综述

为分析当今反恐新形势下的危险品运输网络优化设计问题的研究现状,系统总结国内外关于一般场景和恐怖袭击威胁2种情况下危险品运输网络优化设计研究的主要模型和方法,梳理两者现有的研究内容,并讨论其共性及恐怖袭击威胁情景下的研究的新特点。结果发现:目前关于解决危险品运输网络优化设计问题模型的鲁棒性研究较为缺乏,尤其是模型在更为复杂和不确定性更强的恐怖袭击情景中适用性不强;危险品运输的鲁棒优化模型即使在突发事件条件下,也可以使决策者能够作出相对满意的决策;鲁棒性危险品运输网络能够规避风险扰动,可用来防止在恐怖袭击中因危险品车辆爆炸等造成更大的危害。     

An easy method to design gas/vapor relief system with rupture disk

Tank discharge gas/vapor flow problems are frequently encountered in both practice and design. To perform this type of design calculation, the first step is to identify whether the flow is choked or not through a trial-and-error solution of an equation for adiabatic flow with friction from a reservoir through a pipe. Developing a direct method without any trial-and-error to identify a choking condition would be helpful for expediting the flow calculations. This paper presents an easy and quick method to identify the choking of gas flow for an emergency relief system consisting of a rupture disk and vent piping. This greatly simplifies the design calculations. The proposed method for validating the venting adequacy of existing ERS circumvents the iteration calculation and the use of Lapple charts. Three case studies for the design of vent piping for rupture disks support the proposed method.     

基于ERA-Interim资料分析青藏高原“湿池”变化特征

论文利用ERA-Interim(0.5°×0.5°,简称ERA)、NCEP/NCAR2(2.5°×2.5°,简称NCEP2)两种不同分辨率的再分析资料和探空观测资料,首先分析了夏季(7月)和冬季(1月)青藏高原(以下简称高原)上大气水汽含量大值区(简称"湿池")的区域分布特征,然后基于ERA资料分析了1979—2012年间高原"湿池"的一些变化特征,发现了一些新的事实。主要结果包括:在对流层中上层,高原上无论夏、冬季都有大气水汽含量的高值中心——高原"湿池"存在。夏季7月高原"湿池"强度最强,ERA资料除了在高原南部有自西到东的连续高湿中心带外,在高原西北部还有一个高湿中心;NCEP2资料仅在高原东南部和西南部有两个高湿中心。冬季1月,两种资料均只在高原东南部有高湿中心。总体上,ERA资料与探空观测资料的高湿中心区更为接近。7月,高原南部高湿中心在1990年代中期(1994—1996年)之后持续偏强,西北部中心强度有弱—强—弱—强交替变化特征;1月,高湿中心在1980年代末期开始持续偏强。高原南部高湿中心带在7月几乎是一个连续的区域,1996年以后这一特征更为明显,在1月则是分为东西两段的高湿中心带。     

有机化学品不同温度下(过冷)液体蒸气压预测模型的建立与评价

(过冷)液体蒸气压(PL)是评价化学品在环境中分配、迁移和归趋行为的重要参数。PL具有较强的温度依附性。发展一种能够精确预测不同环境温度下化学品PL的方法,有助于填补化学品生态风险评估的大量数据缺失。本研究收集整理了661种有机化合物在不同温度下(200~830 K)共计10 478个log PL值。在此基础上,采用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归和支持向量机(SVM)方法,构建了PL的线性和非线性预测模型。结果表明:2种模型均具有良好的拟合度、稳健性及预测能力,SVM模型的预测性能略高于PLS模型(PLS:R2adj.tra=0.912,RMSEtra=0.477,Q2ext=0.910;SVM:R2adj.tra=0.997,RMSEtra=0.092,Q2ext=0.967)。机理分析表明,温度是影响PL的主要因素,温度越高,蒸气压越大;其次,X1sol也影响PL大小,X1sol用来描述分子间的色散作用,分子间色散力越小,蒸气压越大;此外,化合物的氢键个数、极性和分子构型等因素也影响PL大小。采用Wiliams plot方法表征了PLS模型应用域。所建立的模型可用来预测烷烃、烯烃、醇、酮、羧酸、苯、酚、联苯、卤代芳香烃、含N化合物及含S化合物在不同温度下的PL数据。     

Multi-objective transportation route optimization for hazardous materials based on GIS

Safety and security are of paramount importance, it is important to optimize and improve the routes of trucks that carry hazardous materials. In this study, we not only ensure the risk in the network, but also consider the transportation cost and the factors such as buildings and emergency facilities around the routes. The Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to quantify the factors on each section in the network. We present an epsilon constrained multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming optimization model to find the robust and stable transportation optimization solutions. At the end, we complete a case analysis of the proposed methodology to determine the motorway segments in Jiangsu province, China and test the above algorithm on the network, which has 144 nodes and 388 sections. The results we get show that the factors of buildings play a very important role in the model, and the multi-objective mixed-integer linear optimization model is reasonable and performs good quality.     

An Interpretive Study of Yosemite National Park Visitors’ Perspectives Toward Alternative Transportation in Yosemite Valley

The National Park Service (NPS) is increasingly focusing on alternative transportation systems in national parks to address environmental and social problems arising from a historical reliance on personal automobiles as the primary means of visitor access. Despite the potential advantages, alternative transportation may require a reorientation in the way that Americans have experienced national parks since the advent of auto-tourism in the early twentieth century. Little research exists, however, on visitor perspectives towards alternative transportation or the rationale underlying their perspectives. It remains unclear how transportation systems affect visitors’ experiences of the park landscape or the factors influencing their travel behavior in the parks. This report presents an interpretive study of visitor perspectives toward transportation management in the Yosemite Valley area of Yosemite National Park, California. Qualitative analysis of 160 semi-structured interviews identified individual psychological factors as well as situational influences that affect visitors’ behavior and perspectives. Individual psychological factors include perceived freedom, environmental values and beliefs, prior experience with Yosemite National Park and other national parks, prior experience with alternative transportation in national parks, and sensitivity to subjective perceptions of crowding. Situational factors included convenience, access, and flexibility of travel modes, as well as type of visit, type of group, and park use level. Interpretive communication designed to encourage voluntary visitor use of alternative transportation should focus on these psychological and situational factors. Although challenges remain, the results of this study suggest approaches for shaping the way Americans visit and experience their national parks to encourage environmental sustainability.