火灾探测报警系统失效风险评估

火灾探测报警系统的可靠程度,直接影响消防系统控制火灾蔓延和保护人民生命财产安全的能力,对系统进行失效风险评估是检验火灾探测报警系统可靠性的有效方法。先采用故障树分析法对火灾探测报警系统的失效风险进行分析,得出影响火灾探测报警系统失效的底事件;再利用模糊综合评价法和重要度算法得到各底事件的失效概率和权重,并给出火灾探测报警系统失效风险计算步骤;以沈阳航空航天大学图书馆火灾探测报警系统为例,评价该系统不失效的概率为0.795 0,不易失效的概率为0.144 1,较易失效的概率为0.0608,易失效的概率为0,然后根据模糊评价的最大隶属度原则,确定评估结果为该系统不失效。     

视野受限时出口指示标志对行人疏散的作用研究

为完善视野受限时的行人疏散理论,探讨了出口指示标志在行人疏散中的作用和其他影响疏散的因素。在前人工作的基础上,进一步阐述了视野受限时的疏散理论模型,统计估算了行人的疏散时间;并利用计算机仿真对比研究了出口指示标志在行人疏散过程中的作用。结果表明,出口指示标志能够明显地影响行人疏散过程中的动力学特征,避免了无出口指示标志时的盲目和绕行现象,优化了行人疏散路径,提高了疏散效率。同时发现,在不同出口宽度下大的视野距离会对疏散起积极作用;初始行人密度较小时,行人数量的变化对疏散时间影响不大;初始行人密度较大时,疏散时间与行人数量间呈线性关系。     

火灾中液化气储罐热响应CFD模拟的UDF程序设计

为了降低火灾环境下储罐内部介质热响应及储罐失效试验研究的成本和风险,更好地为储罐事故的预测预防提供模拟依据,利用Fluent 12.0软件对密闭容器内部介质的传热传质过程进行模拟,给出了内部介质在受热和冷却条件下相变的控制方程;通过考虑内部介质气化热随温度的变化及饱和温度与区域单元压力之间的关系,编写了内部介质在受热和冷却条件下质量和能量源项的用户自定义函数(UDF);通过对部分参数进行简化,分别给出了喷射火和池火条件下丙烷储罐热响应模拟的结果,并与试验结果进行了对比.结果表明:储罐热响应各主要参数(内部介质温度、壁面温度,储罐内部压力)的误差在喷射火条件下低于15％,在池火条件下低于12.4％.这表明模拟所需源项UDF正确,可以用于现实储罐热响应的模拟.     

二氧化碳灭火系统扑灭风电机组舱内火灾试验研究

为有效遏制全国多地风力发电机组火灾事故的势头,基于灭火系统在风电机组防火设计中的重要性,提出采用二氧化碳灭火系统对风电机舱进行灭火保护的解决方案。在建造国内首台风电机组火灾模拟试验装置的基础上,通过试验研究二氧化碳灭火系统在常温状态和低温状态下对风电机组火灾的灭火能力。结果表明,该灭火系统能够对风力发电机组进行全淹没灭火保护,适用于空间狭小且结构复杂的风电机舱;在低温条件下,其喷放时间和灭火时间虽比常温状态下长,但灭火效能并未降低。     

Experimental study on fire suppression performance of the high pressure water mist in the engine room of an offshore platform

The total flooding application water mist system is a new type of environmentally-friendly fixed extinguishing system. The optimizing design can improve its fire extinguishing performance. At present, the water mist fire extinguishing system in the engine room of the offshore deepwater semi-submersible support platform has not attracted sufficient attention. In this paper, the water mist in the engine room of a deepwater semi-submersible support platform was studied. It contains the effect of water mist on the heat absorption and oxygen insulation of diesel pool fires. The applicable parameters of the water mist fire extinguishing system were also determined. Moreover, based on the shielding of the fire source in the engine room and the different requirements for water mist extinguishing parameters, a hierarchical multi-parameter combined high-pressure water mist fire extinguishing system was proposed. In the full-scale experimental engine room model, according to the fire extinguishing experiments for diesel pool fires with different areas, this kind of hierarchical multi-parameter water mist system is very effective on shielded and non-shielded fires. In addition, it is still effective even in a non-closed environment coupled with smoke exhausting.     

Experimental investigation of the performance of modified expanded graphite powder doped with zinc borate in extinguishing sodium fires

Sodium is the main cooling medium in the circuit of fourth-generation nuclear reactors, and its leakage constitutes a severe fire hazard because of its high chemical activity. In this study, expandable graphite (EG), which is a traditional sodium fire-extinguishing agent, was modified with zinc borate (ZB) as an intercalator, and the modified EG_ZB was characterized. Moreover, the effectiveness of the modified EG_ZB in extinguishing sodium fires was tested using a self-developed fire-extinguishing experimental device. This study's results indicated that EG, EG_ZB had a smaller particle size, higher thermal stability, higher fire-extinguishing speed, and lower powder mass consumption than EG. During the fire-extinguishing process, ZnO decomposed by ZB captured free radicals and inhibited the combustion reaction. Furthermore, B₂O₃ was adsorbed on the surface of the EG layer, which strengthened covering and asphyxiation. The findings of this study provide crucial information for effectively controlling fires caused by active metals and metallo-organic compounds.     

基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型*

为提高林火风险预测精度,挖掘地图上隐含的空间信息、时间序列上隐含的长期趋势和循环波动,提出1种基于缓冲区重采样的长短期记忆（LSTM）林火预测模型,选取15个与林火相关的影响因素,以方差膨胀因子为评价指标对其进行多重共线性检验,方差膨胀因子大于10的因素具有共线性,并采用信息增益率验证筛选结果的合理性。考虑到火灾的空间聚集特性,采用缓冲区分析与过采样相结合方法减少样本不均衡现象的影响,最终得到176 732条样本。对12个影响因素和研究时间段的火点建立LSTM预测模型,对森林火灾发生风险进行预测。研究结果表明:基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型有效考虑时空上隐含的信息,预测模型准确率为87.06%,特异性为97.99%,敏感度为76.12%,阳性预测率为97.43%,阴性预测率为80.41%,ROC曲线与AUC值均优于随机森林（RF）和支持向量机（SVM）这2种基准算法。维尔克松秩和检验发现,本文提出的模型与基准算法结果具有显著性差异。研究结果可为提高林火风险预测精度提供参考。     

Influences on stakeholder support for a wildfire early warning system in a UK protected area

Projected increases in wildfire risk and impacts to human populations in the UK have prompted the installation of expanded management approaches such as early warning systems (EWSs). Newer iterations of wildfire EWSs help mitigate risk through rapid detection, often using high-resolution monitoring technology and instantaneous information collection. While existing research suggests that local social context plays an important role in the effective application of EWSs, little is known about factors that contribute to stakeholder support for these technocratic systems and their successful implementation in protected areas. This study examines support for an EWS in Northumberland National Park, UK, using focus groups with a broad range of local stakeholders. We found that diverse stakeholder understandings of wildfire, different perceptions of wildfire risk, and varied identification of values at risk collectively help explain mixed support for the EWS. Mixed support also was an outgrowth of distrust between several stakeholder groups, indicating a need for improved communication regarding wildfire risk management across stakeholder groups. Results suggest that EWSs adopted in multi-use protected areas shared by a range of stakeholder are most likely to be successful when stakeholders have shared understandings of the hazard and opportunities for collective planning to address its risks. We conclude that EWSs are a viable approach to wildfire risk reduction, but there needs to be a critical consideration of pre-existing stakeholder dynamics for effective EWS implementation.     

It’s All in the Numbers: Acreage Tallies and Environmental Program Evaluation

Increasingly, performance measurement is being used to hold federal agencies accountable, represent environmental progress, and evaluate the effectiveness of environmental programs. The need to track measurable outputs has created a tendency to present programmatic progress solely by quantifiable data, despite the inherent complexity of natural resource management. Wetlands and fire management programs are two specific environmental arenas that have come to overemphasize the tracking of acreage numbers to validate existing policy direction. In both of these arenas, we find the definition and categorization of "countable" acres to be inconsistent and unreliable. We explore this systemic flaw for both wetlands and fire programs and describe its implications for environmental policy and natural resource management more broadly. We conclude with recommendations for improved performance measurement in these arenas.     

Flame Propagation Across Gelled Alkane-In-Water Emulsions

Flame propagation rates were measured for flames spreading across surfaces of gel-like alkane-in-water emulsions. A long, slender, water-cooled trough was used to contain the mixtures. Abrupt changes in the flame propagation velocities - of nearly two orders of magnitude - were observed to occur near ‘critical’ concentrations of certain alkane/water mixtures. Four alkanes were used - pentane, hexane, heptane, and octane - and fuel rich emulsions (in which water was the continuous phase) were employed. The ability of the aqueous phase of the emulsion to inhibit the release of fuel into the vapor phase plays an important role in the observed behavior. That is, the rate at which fuel can diffuse through both the emulsion and the thin liquid layers that reside on it, is an essential kinetic aspect of the phenomena which determine the flame propagation rate across gelled alkane-in-water emulsions.