基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

An experimental study on the burning rate of a continuously released n-heptane spill fire on an open water surface

Spill fires are common during oil product storage and transportation after a loss of containment. Since the burning fuel is moving and the fuel depth is quite shallow, the burning rate in a spill fire is different from that of a pool fire with a static burning zone. Unlike pool fires, which have been studied for decades and have well-established correlations for burning rate, research on spill fires is inadequate. In this paper, continuously released n-heptane spill fire experiments were conducted on open water surfaces with varying fuel discharge rates. The pool diameters were measured, and the spill fire burning rates were estimated based on a dynamic balance between fuel supply and combustion. The burning rates in n-heptane pool fires from the literature were reviewed and compared with the estimated burning rates in spill fires of the same dimension. The spill fire burning rate was found to be close to that in a pool fire during the initial burning phase but lower than that in a bulk burning pool fire and that in a “fuel-level-controlled” pool fire. The distinction between the burning rates of spill fires and pool fires is explained by the heat balance analysis of the fuel layer. A model for the spill fire burning rate was proposed accordingly. The results calculated with the presented model are closer to the measured data than those calculated with pool fire models.     

Numerical simulation of small-scale pool fires of LNG

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been largely indicated as a promising alternative solution for the transportation and storage of natural gas. In the case of accidental release on the ground, a pool fire scenario may occur. Despite the relevance of this accident, due to its likelihood and potential to trigger domino effects, accurate analyses addressing the characterization of pool fires of LNG are still missing.In this work, the fire dynamic simulator (FDS) has been adopted for the evaluation of the effects of the released amount of fuel and its composition (methane, ethane, and propane), on the thermal and chemical properties of small-scale LNG pool fire. More specifically, the heat release rate, the burning rate, the flame height, and thermal radiation, at different initial conditions, have been evaluated for pool having diameter smaller than 10 m. Safety distances have been calculated for all the investigated conditions, as well.Results have also been compared with data and correlations retrieved from the current literature. The equation of Thomas seems to work properly for the definition of the height over diameter ratio of the LNG pool fire for all the mixture and the investigated diameters.The addition of ethane and propane significantly affects the obtained results, especially in terms of radiative thermal radiation peaks, thus indicating the inadequacy of the commonly adopted assumption of pure methane as single, surrogate species for the LNG mixture.     

危险化学品火灾爆炸事故不安全动作分布规律研究

以我国210起典型危险化学品火灾爆炸事故为样本,对造成事故的不安全动作进行归类统计,应用云模型云发生器算法计算大类不安全动作的云模型参数值并绘制隶属云图,得出了危险化学品火灾爆炸事故中不安全动作类型和发出者分布规律及特点。结果表明:造成火源型火灾爆炸事故的违规型不安全动作平均发生次数最多,分布不均匀且不稳定,其中现场工作缺乏指导或监护发生次数最多,发出对象为监理;蓄热型火灾爆炸事故中技术型不安全动作分布表现出较大的随机性,其中物料添加不当和隐患排查不彻底发生次数最多,发出对象分别为基层人员和监理。     

PVC电缆火灾早期特征气体的组成分析和传感器探测

利用气体传感器对电缆绝缘过热释放的气体进行监测有望实现电气火灾早期预警,目前该技术的发展由于特征气体未得到确认而受到限制。分析了聚氯乙烯(PVC)电缆绝缘层在不同温度下释放的气体组成,并对其主要成分进行传感器测试。TG-IR和GC-MS分析表明PVC电缆绝缘层在200℃前已出现微小失重,释放出以邻苯二甲酸二辛酯(DOP)等塑化剂为主的气体。气敏测试中,商用半导体气体传感器对DOP和电缆蒸气产生较好、相似的响应性能。因此,DOP可以作为PVC电缆火灾早期的特征气体。     

氯化钠/纳米疏水二氧化硅超细干粉制备及灭火性能研究

选用氯化钠为基体制备金属火灾超细干粉灭火剂。应用反溶剂法对其改性,使纳米疏水二氧化硅吸附在氯化钠晶体表面,其中分散剂为PEG-1000。结果表明,纳米疏水二氧化硅的添加有利于细化氯化钠颗粒,但过量的添加会起反作用,最佳用量为3 wt%左右,平均粒径为2.18μm。镁片灭火实验证明超细复合干粉的灭火性能明显好于传统氯化钠灭火剂(商用D类灭火剂),纳米疏水二氧化硅最佳添加量为3 wt%,此时灭火时间仅需传统灭火剂的一半。最后利用FDS5.0模拟干粉颗粒与燃烧火焰作用过程,模拟结果表明干粉覆盖对火焰具有一定的抑制效果,并分析了复合干粉灭火机理。     

采空区注超临界CO2防灭火试验研究

为研究超临界CO₂注入采空区防灭火的规律,自主研制了产生超临界CO₂和模拟采空区遗煤自燃升温试验系统,得到了不同温压条件下超临界CO₂注入采空区前后不同监测点的温度、O₂和CO浓度变化数据信息。试验结果表明:注入采空区的超临界CO₂发生相变,有序结构急速失序,大量吸收热量,采空区内的煤体、空气温度随时间呈线性快速下降规律,其降温能力是气态N₂的10倍;超临界CO₂在自燃发火煤体中的强渗透扩散特性,使自燃煤体快速惰化,防灭火效率高;停止注入后,小范围回温符合反二次函数特征;高压力超临界CO₂相对于低压条件,防灭火性能更佳;超临界CO₂是1种降温降氧能力显著,且输送性能优良的采空区新型防灭火材料,超临界CO₂防灭火效果优于气态N₂。     

教学楼火灾疏散的标识认知应对规律研究

为了研究逃生者在疏散标识引导下的火灾疏散效率与逃生认知应对规律,基于实地调研与问卷调查结果,采用Anylogic软件,对常规标识与增设标识2种教学楼火灾疏散情境进行仿真模拟。研究结果表明:在疏散过程中,增设标识能使各疏散出口的疏散时间相对持平,避免了常规疏散中通道过早闲置的现象;人流在一层教学楼的平均疏散时长缩短了约10%,显著缩短了整栋教学楼的疏散时间。据此火灾标识疏散仿真过程与人的认知反应提出了火灾疏散与标识认知应对规律模型。     

Patch Mosaic Burning for Biodiversity Conservation: a Critique of the Pyrodiversity Paradigm

Abstract:  Fire management is increasingly focusing on introducing heterogeneity in burning patterns under the assumption that "pyrodiversity begets biodiversity." This concept has been formalized as patch mosaic burning (PMB), in which fire is manipulated to create a mosaic of patches representative of a range of fire histories to generate heterogeneity across space and time. Although PMB is an intuitively appealing concept, it has received little critical analysis. Thus we examined ecosystems where PMB has received the most attention and has been the most extensively implemented: tropical and subtropical savannas of Australia and Africa. We identified serious shortcomings of PMB: the ecological significance of different burning patterns remains unknown and details of desired fire mosaics remain unspecified. This has led to fire-management plans based on pyrodiversity rhetoric that lacks substance in terms of operational guidelines and capacity for meaningful evaluation. We also suggest that not all fire patterns are ecologically meaningful: this seems particularly true for the highly fire-prone savannas of Australia and South Africa. We argue that biodiversity-needs-pyrodiversity advocacy needs to be replaced with a more critical consideration of the levels of pyrodiversity needed for biodiversity and greater attention to operational guidelines for its implementation.