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Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
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4.
用StrandenE.推荐的测量方法对哈密地区环境空气中220Rn子体α潜能浓度测量结果表明,室内、外平均值分别为56.1和10.2(×10-7J·m-3)。室内外220Rn/222Rn子体α潜能浓度比值分别为0.84和032。220Rn子体所致居民有效剂量当量为228μSv·a-1(集体有效剂量当量为0.9×02man·Sv)。 相似文献
5.
Fractionation of Cu, Pb and Zn in certified reference soils SRM 2710 and SRM 2711 using the optimized BCR sequential extraction procedure 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Sequential extraction of metals from solid media is a common analytical tool used in environmental and exploration geochemistry. A number of procedures exist, but without harmonization and standardization, meaningful comparisons are tenuous without baseline data. A newly developed, standardized sequential extraction procedure (optimized BCR) was applied to two contaminated certified reference soils from Montana, US (SRM 2710 and SRM 2711) for Cu, Pb and Zn. Four operationally defined fractions were isolated, acid extractable, reducible, oxidizable, and residual (by aqua regia). Fraction-specific concentrations, percentages and recoveries for Cu, Pb and Zn were used to explore differences between the optimized BCR procedure and three other sequential extraction schemes with published data for SRM 2710 and 2711 (i.e. Tessier scheme, Geological Survey of Canada scheme and the original BCR scheme). Results indicate significant differences between the four schemes, even for schemes that are closely associated (i.e. the original and optimized BCR schemes). Order-of-magnitude fraction-specific concentration differences were observed, especially for Pb in the reducible fraction. Differences between schemes are worrisome because trends varied between metals, between fractions and between reference soils. These data reinforce the need for increased adoption of standardized sequential extraction procedures and further examination of different solid media. 相似文献
6.
长白山西坡风灾干扰区的恢复和保护 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
长白山西坡发生的灾害性风灾干扰,一方面给长白山自然保护区的森林资源造成巨大损失,同时也提出了如何加强保护和加速恢复的新课题。文中分析了风灾干扰区的更新格局和过程以及干扰后处理的有关问题,提出了从立地和景观水平促进更新恢复的保护措施 相似文献
7.
安徽月山地区是长江中下游地区的重要成岩-成矿区段。本文通过岩石学、岩石化学和同位素地球化学等方面的研究,探讨和阐明了月山地区闪长岩类的形成环境、物质来源、源区特征、岩浆形成与演化机理等。 相似文献
8.
Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):843-853
Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered
separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy
between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy
between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted
under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the
potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples.
Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems
and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability.
Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity
conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil
and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need
for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate
change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased. 相似文献
9.
10.
运用人类工效学的基本原理与方法。指出一些企业任意延长劳动工时,无视劳动保护和劳动保障。事故发生后对事故的分析不全面、不科学。是导致我国目前伤亡事故频频发生的致因。 相似文献