Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Environmental monitoring of historical change in arsenic deposition with tree bark pockets

ICP-MS analysis recorded historical change (c. 1846 to 2002) in the arsenic concentration of bark included within the trunks (tree bark pockets) of two Japanese oak trees (Quercus crispula), collected at an elevated location approximately 10 km from the Ashio copper mine and smelter, Japan. The arsenic concentration of the bark pockets was 0.016 +/- 0.003 microg cm(-2) c. 1846 (n = 5) and rose 50-fold from c. 1875 to c. 1925, from approximately 0.01 to 0.5 microg cm(-2). The rise coincided with increased copper production in Ashio from local sulfide ores, from 46 tons per year in 1877 to 16,500 tons per year in 1929. Following a decline in arsenic concentration and copper production, in particular during the Second World War, a second peak was observed c. 1970, corresponding to high levels of production from both local (6,000 tons per year) and imported (30,000 tons per year) ores, smelted from 1954. Compared to the local ores, the contribution of arsenic from imported ores appeared relatively low. Arsenic concentrations declined from c. 1970 to the present following the closure of the mine in 1974 and smelter in 1989, recording 0.058 +/- 0.040 microg cm(-2) arsenic (n = 5) in surface bark collected in 2002. The coincident trends in arsenic concentration and copper production indicated that the bark pockets provided an effective record of historical change in atmospheric arsenic deposition.     

Patients' attitudes following chorionic villus sampling

The attitudes of 190 patients who had undergone chorionic villus sampling (CVS) were assessed by means of a questionnaire. One hundred and fifty-two patients replied of whom 68 (45 per cent) were referred because of increased maternal age and in the other 84 cases the indications included previous chromosomal abnormalities, fetal sexing, DNA analysis, and biochemical analysis. One hundred and twenty-two patients had a transcervical procedure, 24 had a transabdominal, and six patients required both procedures. One hundred and forty-one patients (93 per cent) reported CVS to be a satisfactory procedure, and the same percentage thought earlier diagnosis was beneficial. Thirty-nine patients (81 per cent) reported a better experience with CVS than with a previous amniocentesis. A majority of patients (93 per cent) wished a CVS in a future pregnancy and 137 patients (97 per cent) would accept a risk of miscarriage from the procedure of twice that quoted for amniocentesis (1 per cent).     

Building a place-responsive society through inclusive local projects and networks

This paper presents the story of a project undertaken by researchers who are active participants in the national Australian debate over place and belonging. It arose from the desire to ground this debate, which brings issues of ecological sustainability, reconciliation and multiculturalism together, in more localised action aimed at building a 'place-responsive society'. The project was carried out as a case study in a region that combines part of the Sydney metropolitan area and the separate 'city' of the Blue Mountains, and involved a consultative committee and then a regional forum of conservationists, environmental educators and community workers. The researchers explored existing place-oriented initiatives in the region and developed practical projects for the future, most notably a proposal for 'totemic species' work within schools involving local Aboriginal people. The research demonstrated, more than anything else, that indigenous Australian approaches to 'place awareness' and nature conservation remain highly relevant in contemporary Australia. It also showed that bioregional awareness and the notion of place responsiveness can add value to more traditional approaches to nature conservation and environmental education. There are opportunities to galvanise local action that can integrate community and environmental work and revitalise professional practice in both areas, but the effort involves working constantly with difference and conflict.     

The data not collected on community forestry

Conservation and development practitioners increasingly promote community forestry as a way to conserve ecosystem services, consolidate resource rights, and reduce poverty. However, outcomes of community forestry have been mixed; many initiatives failed to achieve intended objectives. There is a rich literature on institutional arrangements of community forestry, but there has been little effort to examine the role of socioeconomic, market, and biophysical factors in shaping both land‐cover change dynamics and individual and collective livelihood outcomes. We systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature on community forestry to examine and quantify existing knowledge gaps in the community‐forestry literature relative to these factors. In examining 697 cases of community forest management (CFM), extracted from 267 peer‐reviewed publications, we found 3 key trends that limit understanding of community forestry. First, we found substantial data gaps linking population dynamics, market forces, and biophysical characteristics to both environmental and livelihood outcomes. Second, most studies focused on environmental outcomes, and the majority of studies that assessed socioeconomic outcomes relied on qualitative data, making comparisons across cases difficult. Finally, there was a heavy bias toward studies on South Asian forests, indicating that the literature on community forestry may not be representative of decentralization policies and CFM globally.     

The case for carbon leakage and border adjustments: where do economists stand?

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - While the EU is working toward the implementation of the world’s first Carbon Border Adjustment (CBA) Mechanism, a gap remains between the ways in...     

用Autospec-Ultima NT气相色谱-高分辨质谱分析二噁英及相关的持久性有机污染物

"二噁英"是指一类化学结构和生物特征均有某些相似之处的化合物.这些有毒化合物有几百种,可分为相关的三大类:氯代二苯并-对-二噁英(CDDs),氯代二苯并呋喃(CDFs)和某些多氯代联苯(PCBs).CDDs和CDFs并非与生具有,而是由于人类活动不注意而生成的.天然过程也会产生CDDs和CDFs.     

Characterization of organic chemical contaminants in sediments from Jobos Bay, Puerto Rico

Jobos Bay, located on the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico, contains a variety of habitats including mangroves, seagrass meadows, and coral reefs. The watershed surrounding the bay includes a number of towns, agricultural areas, and the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR). Jobos Bay and the surrounding watershed are part of a Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), involving the Jobos Bay NERR, the US Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess the benefits of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) on the terrestrial and marine environments. As part of the Jobos Bay CEAP, NOAA collected sediment samples in May 2008 to characterize over 130 organic chemical contaminants. This paper presents the results of the organic contaminant analysis. The organic contaminants detected in the sediments included polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls, and the pesticide DDT. PAHs at one site in the inner bay near a boat yard were significantly elevated; however, all organic contaminant classes measured were below NOAA sediment quality guidelines that would have indicated that impacts were likely. The results of this work provide an important baseline assessment of the marine environment that will assist in understanding the benefits of implementing BMPs on water quality in Jobos Bay.     

Monitoring of carbon monoxide in residences with bulk wood pellet storage in the Northeast United States

The interest in biomass fuel is continuing to expand globally and in the northeastern United States as wood pellets are becoming a primary source of fuel for residential and small commercial systems. Wood pellets for boilers are often stored in basement storage rooms or large bag-type containers. Due to the enclosed nature of these storage areas, the atmosphere may exhibit increased levels of carbon monoxide. Serious accidents in Europe have been reported over the last decade in which high concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) have been found in or near bulk pellet storage containers. The aim of this study was to characterize the CO concentrations in areas with indoor storage of bulk wood pellets. Data was obtained over approximately 7 months (December 2013 to June 2014) at 25 sites in New Hampshire and Massachusetts: 16 homes using wood pellet boilers with indoor pellet storage containers greater than or equal to 3 ton capacity; 4 homes with wood pellet heating systems with outdoor pellet storage; 4 homes using other heating fuels; and a university laboratory site. CO monitors were set up in homes to collect concentrations of CO in the immediate vicinity of wood pellet storage containers, and data were then compared to those of homes using fossil fuel systems. The homes monitored in this study provided a diverse set of housing stock spanning two and a half centuries of construction, with homes built from 1774 to 2013, representing a range of air exchange rates. The CO concentration data from each home was averaged hourly and then compared to a threshold of 9 ppm. While concentrations of CO were generally low for the homes studied, the need to properly design storage locations for pellets is and will remain a necessary component of wood pellet heating systems to minimize the risk of CO exposure.

Implications: This paper is an assessment of carbon monoxide (CO) exposure from bulk wood pellet storage in homes in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Understanding the CO concentrations in homes allows for better designs for storage bins and ventilation for storage areas. Hence, uniform policies for stored wood pellets in homes, schools, and businesses can be framed to ensure occupant safety. Currently in New York State rebates for the installation of wood pellet boilers are only provided if the bulk pellet storage is outside of the home, yet states such as New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine currently do not have these restrictions.