Unintended Effects of Emphasizing the Role of Climate Change in Recent Natural Disasters

In 2017, the United States experienced a series of natural hazards (hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards) that resulted in significant loss of life and property. Emphasizing the role of climate change in these events might offer an important tool for engagement, particularly with skeptical audiences. However, in a survey experiment (N?=?1504) involving three different natural hazards – hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards – we find that emphasizing the role of climate change in these hazards produced unintended effects for climate change skeptics. In particular, skeptics experienced resistance to the news article, which associated with reduced perceived hazard severity. These backfiring effects likely serve as a defensive mechanism used by skeptics to maintain their prior views of climate change, illustrating the challenges faced in communicating climate change to skeptical audiences. These findings offer additional insight for those attempting to communicate climate-related risk information to skeptical audiences.     

Potential for carbon sequestration in Canadian forests and agroecosystems

The potential for carbon (C) sequestration was examined in selectedCanadian forest settings and prairie agroecosystems under severalmanagement scenarios. A simple C budget model was developed toquantitatively examine C sequestration potential in living biomass of forestecosystems, in associated forest-product C pools, and in displaced fossil-fuelC. A review of previous studies was conducted to examine C sequestrationpotential in prairie agroecosystems. In the forest settings examined, ourwork suggests that substantial C sequestration opportunities can be realizedin the short term through the establishment of protected forest-C reserves.Where stands can be effectively protected from natural disturbance, peaklevels of biomass C storage can exceed that under alternative managementstrategies for 200 years or more. In settings where it is not feasible tomaintain protected forest-C reserves, C sequestration opportunities can berealized through maximum sustained yield management with harvestedbiomass put towards the displacement of fossil fuels. Because there is afinite capacity for C storage in protected forest-C reserves, harvesting forestbiomass and using it to displace the use of fossil fuels, either directlythrough the production of biofuels or indirectly through the production oflong-lived forest products that displace the use of energy-intensive materialssuch as steel or concrete, can provide the greatest opportunity to mitigategreenhouse gas emissions in the long term. In Canadian prairieagroecosystems, modest C sequestration can be realized while enhancingsoil fertility and improving the efficiency of crop production. This can bedone in situations where soil organic C can be enhanced without relianceupon ongoing inputs of nitrogen fertilizer, or where the use of fossil fuelsin agriculture can be reduced. More substantial C offsets can be generatedthrough the production of dedicated energy crops to displace the use offossil fuels. Where afforestation or reconstruction of native prairieecosystems on previously cultivated land is possible, this represents thegreatest opportunity to sequester C on a per unit-area basis. However,these last two strategies involve the removal of land from crop production,and so they are not applicable on as wide a scale as some other Csequestration options which only involve modifications to currentagricultural practices.     

Persistent “upwelling shadows” and their influence on zooplankton distributions

Physical (temperature and salinity) and biological (zooplankton) properties were sampled over a 15 mo period in 1988 and 1989 to monitor nearshore environmental variability in northern Monterey Bay, California, USA. During the upwelling seasons of 1988 and 1989, there were two distinct bodies of water along the sampling transect. The offshore water body was characterized by recently upwelled water (typically <12°C) while the nearshore body was significantly warmer (approaching 16°C). A sharp thermal gradient (=front) separated the two water bodies. This front persisted 6.5 km from shore throughout the upwelling season of 1988 and was present again in 1989. Zooplankton-assemblage analysis confirmed the presence of two distinct regions in northern Monterey Bay. We refer to this phenomenon as an upwelling shadow, which is the result of the advection of recently upwelled water bearing nutrients and larvae past coastal recesses which are equatorward of upwelling centers.     

New hydroepidemiological models of indicator organisms and zoonotic pathogens in agricultural watersheds

Simple analytical models are derived to assess how a series of cattle animal farms affect the transport and fate of an indicator organism (Escherichia coli) and a zoonotic pathogen (Campylobacter) in a stream. Separate steady-state mass-balance models are developed and solved for the ultimate minimum and maximum concentrations for the two organisms. The E. coli model assumes that the organism is ubiquitous and abundant in the animals’ digestive tracts. In contrast, a simple dose-response model is employed to relate the Campylobacter prevalence to drinking water drawn from the stream. Because faecal indicators are commonly employed to assess the efficacy of best management practice (BMP) interventions, we also employ the models to assess how BMPs impact pathogen levels. The model provides predictions of (a) the relative removal efficacy for Campylobacter and (b) the prevalence of Campylobacter infection among farm animals after implementation of BMPs. Dimensionless numbers and simple graphs are developed to assess how prevalence is influenced by a number of factors including animal density and farm spacing. A significant outcome of this model development is that the numerous dimensional input and parameter variables are reduced to a group of just four dimensionless Campylobacter-related quantities, characterizing: animal density; in-stream attenuation; animal-to-animal transmission; and infection recovery. Calculations reveal that for some constellations of these four quantities there can be a greater-than-expected benefit in that the proportional reduction of stream Campylobacter concentrations post-BMP can substantially exceed the proportional reduction of concentrations of E. coli in that stream. In addition, a criterion for system sterility (i.e., the conditions required for the farm infection rate to decrease with downstream distance) is derived.     

Stable lead isotope profiles in smelter and general urban communities: a comparison of environmental and blood measures

High-precision lead isotope ratios and lead concentrations have been compared statistically and graphically in women of child-bearing age (n = 77) from two smelter communities and one general urban community to evaluate the relative contributions to blood lead of tissue lead stores and lead from the contemporaneous environment (soil, floor dust, indoor airborne dust, water, food). Blood lead (PbB) contents were generally low (e.g. <10 g dL^–1). Statistically significant isotopic differences in blood and environmental samples were observed between the three cities although isotopic differences in blood for individual subjects living in close proximity (200 m radius) was as large as the differences within a city. No single environmental measure dominated the biological isotope profile and in many cases the low levels of blood lead meant that their isotopic profiles could be easily perturbed by relatively small changes of environmental exposure. Apportioning of sources using lead isotopes is possibly not feasible, nor cost effective, when blood lead levels are <5 g dL^–1. Interpretations based on statistical analyses of city-wide data do not give the same conclusions as when the houses are considered individually. Aggregating data from multiple subjects in a study such as this obscures potentially useful information. Most of the measures employed in this study, and many other similar studies, are markers of only short-to-medium integration of lead exposure. Serial sampling of blood and longer sampling times, especially for household variables, should provide more meaningful information.     

The effects of partial mortality on the fecundity of three common Caribbean corals

The recent intensification of human disturbances in the Caribbean has increased the prevalence of partial mortality on coral colonies. Partial mortality can change colony size by directly shrinking colonies or by splitting colonies into fragments. A reduction in colony size can also adversely affect fecundity and fitness as internal resources shift away from reproduction toward colony maintenance. This study aimed to determine whether three Caribbean coral species, Siderastrea siderea, Montastraea faveolata, and Diploria strigosa, along the reef tract in Puerto Morelos, Mexico (20^o52′N, 86^o51′W), continued to dedicate resources to reproduction when colonies were fragmented to pre-maturation size. Contrary to expectations, eggs were found in colonies that were smaller than the maturation size and had been subjected to partial mortality. The continued dedication of resources toward reproduction, even in the smallest colonies, suggests that resource trade-offs away from reproduction are not as rigid as previously suggested in stressed corals.     

Independent effects of fragmentation on forest songbirds: an organism-based approach.

The degree to which spatial patterns influence the dynamics and distribution of populations is a central question in ecology. This question is even more pressing in the context of rapid habitat loss and fragmentation, which threaten global biodiversity. However, the relative influence of habitat loss and landscape fragmentation, the spatial patterning of remaining habitat, remains unclear. If landscape pattern affects population size, managers may be able to design landscapes that mitigate habitat loss. We present the results of a mensurative experiment designed to test four habitat loss vs. fragmentation hypotheses. Unlike previous studies, we measured landscape structure using quantitative, spatially explicit habitat distribution models previously developed for two species: Blackburnian Warbler (Dendroica fusca) and Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla). We used a stratified sampling design that reduced the confounding of habitat amount and fragmentation variables. Occurrence and reoccurrence of both species were strongly influenced by characteristics at scales greater than the individual territory, indicating little support for the random-sample hypothesis. However, the type and spatial extent of landscape influence differed. Both occurrence and reoccurrence of Blackburnian Warblers were influenced by the amount of poor-quality matrix at 300- and 2000-m spatial extents. The occurrence and reoccurrence of Ovenbirds depended on a landscape pattern variable, patch size, but only in cases when patches were isolated. These results support the hypothesis that landscape pattern is important for some species only when the amount of suitable habitat is low. Although theoretical models have predicted such an interaction between landscape fragmentation and composition, to our knowledge this is the first study to report empirical evidence of such nonlinear fragmentation effects. Defining landscapes quantitatively from an organism-based perspective may increase power to detect fragmentation effects, particularly in forest mosaics where boundaries between patches and matrix are ambiguous. Our results indicate that manipulating landscape pattern may reduce negative impacts of habitat loss for Ovenbird, but not Blackburnian Warbler. We emphasize that most variance in the occurrence of both species was explained by local scale or landscape composition variables rather than variables reflecting landscape pattern.     

The city as a refuge for insect pollinators

Research on urban insect pollinators is changing views on the biological value and ecological importance of cities. The abundance and diversity of native bee species in urban landscapes that are absent in nearby rural lands evidence the biological value and ecological importance of cities and have implications for biodiversity conservation. Lagging behind this revised image of the city are urban conservation programs that historically have invested in education and outreach rather than programs designed to achieve high‐priority species conservation results. We synthesized research on urban bee species diversity and abundance to determine how urban conservation could be repositioned to better align with new views on the ecological importance of urban landscapes. Due to insect pollinators’ relatively small functional requirements—habitat range, life cycle, and nesting behavior—relative to larger mammals, we argue that pollinators put high‐priority and high‐impact urban conservation within reach. In a rapidly urbanizing world, transforming how environmental managers view the city can improve citizen engagement and contribute to the development of more sustainable urbanization.