Analysis of short-term ozone and PM2.5 measurements: Characteristics and relationships for air sensor messaging

Air quality sensors are becoming increasingly available to the general public, providing individuals and communities with information on fine-scale, local air quality in increments as short as 1 min. Current health studies do not support linking 1-min exposures to adverse health effects; therefore, the potential health implications of such ambient exposures are unclear. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establishes the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Air Quality Index (AQI) on the best science available, which typically uses longer averaging periods (e.g., 8 hr; 24 hr). Another consideration for interpreting sensor data is the variable relationship between pollutant concentrations measured by sensors, which are short-term (1 min to 1 hr), and the longer term averages used in the NAAQS and AQI. In addition, sensors often do not meet federal performance or quality assurance requirements, which introduces uncertainty in the accuracy and interpretation of these readings. This article describes a statistical analysis of data from regulatory monitors and new real-time technology from Village Green benches to inform the interpretation and communication of short-term air sensor data. We investigate the characteristics of this novel data set and the temporal relationships of short-term concentrations to 8-hr average (ozone) and 24-hr average (PM_2.5) concentrations to examine how sensor readings may relate to the NAAQS and AQI categories, and ultimately to inform breakpoints for sensor messages. We consider the empirical distributions of the maximum 8-hr averages (ozone) and 24-hr averages (PM_2.5) given the corresponding short-term concentrations, and provide a probabilistic assessment. The result is a robust, empirical comparison that includes events of interest for air quality exceedances and public health communication. Concentration breakpoints are developed for short-term sensor readings such that, to the extent possible, the related air quality messages that are conveyed to the public are consistent with messages related to the NAAQS and AQI.

Implications: Real-time sensors have the potential to provide important information about fine-scale current air quality and local air quality events. The statistical analysis of short-term regulatory and sensor data, coupled with policy considerations and known health effects experienced over longer averaging times, supports interpretation of such short-term data and efforts to communicate local air quality.     

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

This paper explores sovereign risk preferences against direct and indirect natural disasters losses in industrialized countries. Using Australia as a case study, the analysis compares expected disaster losses and government capacity to finance losses. Utilizing a national disaster loss dataset, extreme value theory is applied to estimate an all-hazard annual loss distribution. Unusually but critically, the dataset includes direct as well as indirect losses, allowing for the analysis to consider the oft-ignored issue of indirect losses. Expected annual losses (direct, and direct plus indirect) are overlaid with a risk-layer approach, to distinguish low, medium and extreme loss events. Each risk layer is compared to available fiscal resources for financing losses, grounded in the political reality of Australian disaster financing. When considering direct losses only, we find support for a risk-neutral preference on the part of the Australian government for low and medium loss levels, and a risk-averse preference in regard to extreme losses. When indirect losses are also estimated, we find that even medium loss levels are expected to overwhelm available fiscal resources, thereby violating the available resources assumption underlying arguments for sovereign risk neutrality. Our analysis provides empirical support for the assertion that indirect losses are a major, under-recognised concern for industrialized countries. A risk-averse preference in regard to medium and extreme loss events recommends enhanced investment in both corrective and prospective risk reduction in relation to these risks level, in particular to reduce indirect losses.     

PRECISE WATER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS USING PHOTOGRAMMETRIC TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT Necessary input parameters for studying mixing zone characteristics of thermal plumes are horizontal surface and subsurface water velocities. Using time lapse aerial photography and analytical photogrammetric techniques, movements of drogues in an effluent plume were traced. From these traces accurate velocity vectors were obtained. Photographic coordinates of drogue images were measured using a glass scale. From the photo coordinates and the results of a ground control survey, an analytical solution was made for positions of drogues in the water at known intervals of time. Drogue positions were mapped for selected exposures thereby providing a visual display of velocity vectors in the study area. A rigorous error analysis was performed to determine the validity of the computed results.     

Prioritizing species conservation programs based on IUCN Green Status and estimates of cost-sharing potential

Over 1 million species around the world are at risk of extinction, and conservation organizations have to decide where to invest their limited resources. Cost-effectiveness can be increased by leveraging funding opportunities and increasing collaborative partnerships to achieve shared conservation goals. We devised a structured decision-making framework to prioritize species’ conservation programs based on a cost–benefit analysis that takes collaborative opportunities into account in an examination of national and global conservation return on investment. Conservation benefit is determined by modifying the novel International Union for the Conservation of Nature Green Status for Species to provide an efficient, high-level measure that is comparable among species, even with limited information and time constraints. We applied this prioritization approach to the Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, Canada, a nonprofit organization seeking to increase the number of species it assists with conservation translocations. We sought to identify and prioritize additional species’ programs for which conservation translocation expertise and actions could make the most impact. Estimating the likelihood of cost-sharing potential enabled total program cost to be distinguished from costs specific to the organization. Comparing a benefit-to-cost ratio on different geographic scales allowed decision makers to weigh alternative options for investing in new species’ programs in a transparent and effective manner. Our innovative analysis aligns with general conservation planning frameworks and can be adapted for any organization.     

Understanding adolescent development: implications for driving safety

PROBLEM: The implementation of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs has significantly improved the crash and fatality rates of novice teen drivers, but these rates remain unacceptably high. METHOD: A review of adolescent development research was undertaken to identify potential areas of improvement. RESULTS: Research support for GDL was found to be strong, particularly regarding early acquisition of expertise in driving safety (beyond driving skill), and to limitations that reduce opportunities for distraction. GDL regimes are highly variable, and no US jurisdictions have implemented optimal regimes. SUMMARY: Expanding and improving GDL to enhance acquisition of expertise and self-regulation are indicated for implementation and for applied research. Driver training that effectively incorporates safety goals along with driving skill is another target. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The insurance industry will benefit from further GDL enhancements. Benefits may accrue to improved driver training, improved simulation devices during training, and automated safety feedback instrumentation.     

An overdue alignment of risk and resilience? A conceptual contribution to community resilience

A systematic review of literature on community resilience measurement published between 2005 and 2014 revealed that the profound lack of clarity on risk and resilience is one of the main reasons why confusion about terms such as adaptive capacity, resilience, and vulnerability persists, despite the effort spared to operationalise these concepts. Resilience is measured in isolation in some cases, where a shock is perceived to arise external to the system of interest. Problematically, this contradicts the way in which the climate change and disaster communities perceive risk as manifesting itself endogenously as a function of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. The common conceptualisation of resilience as predominantly positive is problematic as well when, in reality, many undesirable properties of a system are resilient. Consequently, this paper presents an integrative framework that highlights the interactions between risk drivers and coping, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing an improved conceptual basis for resilience measurement.