A Satisficing Framework for Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty

We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of environmental policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-a-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of environmental policymaking, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the decision criterion we propose is an analog of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply our criterion to the climate-change context and the probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.

     

Prenatal diagnosis and intrafamilial clinical heterogeneity of Fraser syndrome

Fraser syndrome (MIM 219000) is a rare disorder of autosomal recessive inheritance, characterized by the association of cryptophthalmos, syndactyly and genital abnormalities. Here we report on two cases of Fraser syndrome (cryptophthalmos syndrome) in a non-consanguineous couple, with variable expression in echographic, clinical and autopsy findings. Furthermore, we highlight the difficulties in prenatal diagnosis of Fraser syndrome. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal diagnosis of Juberg–Hayward syndrome

Juberg–Hayward syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive syndrome characterised by the association of growth retardation, microcephaly, cleft lip and palate, and thumb and radial ray abnormalities. To date, no prenatal cases have been reported. Here, we report on the first prenatal case of Juberg–Hayward syndrome. The diagnosis was established following fetopathological study. Besides the cardinal features of the syndrome, this prenatal case was remarkable for the severity of the short arm malformation and by the finding of big toe agenesis and cerebral abnormalities including hydrocephalus, agenesis of corpus callosum, and cerebellar hypoplasia. We conclude that the diagnosis of Juberg–Hayward syndrome can be discussed prenatally following ultrasound diagnosis of the association of intrauterine growth restriction, microcephaly, thumb/radial anomalies, and cleft lip/palate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meckel-Gruber syndrome: Prenatal diagnosis at 10 menstrual weeks using embryoscopy

A case of Meckel—Gruber syndrome was diagnosed by embryoscopy at 10 menstrual weeks, allowing for early termination of pregnancy. Post-mortem examination confirmed the presence of polydactyly and bilateral cystic lesions of the mesonephros and metanephros. Both the forming nephrons and the collecting ducts were involved in the formation of renal cysts.     

A model for estimating the potential biomagnification of chemicals in a generic food web: Preliminary development

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants have been increasingly assessed and modeled during the last years. Due to the complexity of these processes and the large variability of food webs, setting generic assessments for these parameters is really difficult. Equilibrium models, based on a compound's lipophylicity, are the main tool in regulatory proposals, such as for identifying Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic Substances (PBTs), although a refinement has been claimed by the scientific community. Toxicokinetic studies offer an alternative for these estimations, where biomagnification is modeled as a succession of bioaccumulation processes, each one regulated by toxicokinetic parameters. METHODS: A review of kinetic models covering species belonging to different trophic levels and with different ecological behavior has been conducted. The results were employed for setting a conceptual model for estimating the biomagnification potential in a generic food web, which was mathematically implemented through system dynamic models developed under data sheet software. Crystal Ball was then employed for allowing Monte Carlo based probabilistic calculations. Bioaccumulation laboratory assays have been performed to estimate toxicokinetic parameters in mussels (Mytilus edulis) with two PAHs (chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene). The contamination was delivered via food. The exposure period lasted more than one month followed then by a depuration phase. The contaminant content was determined on an individual basis on five replicates. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:. The reviewed information suggested the development of a tiered conceptual biomagnification model, starting with a simplified food chain which can be refined to more realistic and complex models in successive levels. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical implementation of the conceptual model offers tools for estimating the potential for bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemicals under very different conditions. The versatility of the model can be used for both comparative estimations and for validating the model. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Since bioaccumulation and biomagnification processes are crucial elements for a proper risk assessment of chemicals, their estimation by mathematical models has been widely tested. However, inregulatory assessments, too simplistic models are still being used quite often. The biomagnification model presented in this study should be amore accurate alternative to these models. In comparison to other previously published biomagnification models, the present one covers the time variation of bioaccumulation using just a few toxicokinetic parameters.     

X-ray absorption and photoelectron spectroscopy investigation of selenite reduction by Fe-bearing minerals

The long-lived radionuclide ⁷⁹Se is one of the elements of concern for the safe storage of high-level nuclear waste, since clay minerals in engineered barriers and natural aquifer sediments strongly adsorb cationic species, but to lesser extent anions like selenate (Se^VIO₄²⁻) and selenite (Se^IVO₃²⁻). Previous investigations have demonstrated, however, that Se^IV and Se^VI are reduced by surface-associated Fe^II, thereby forming insoluble Se⁰ and Fe selenides. Here we show that the mixed Fe^II/^III (hydr)oxides green rust and magnetite, and the Fe^II sulfide mackinawite reduce selenite rapidly (< 1 day) to FeSe, while the slightly slower reduction by the Fe^II carbonate siderite produces elemental Se. In the case of mackinawite, both S^−II and Fe^II surface atoms are oxidized at a ratio of one to four by producing a defective mackinawite surface. Comparison of these spectroscopic results with thermodynamic equilibrium modeling provides evidence that the nature of reduction end product in these Fe^II systems is controlled by the concentration of HSe⁻; Se⁰ forms only at lower HSe⁻ concentrations related to slower HSeO₃⁻ reduction kinetics. Even under thermodynamically unstable conditions, the initially formed Se solid phases may remain stable for longer periods since their low solubility prevents the dissolution required for a phase transformation into more stable solids. The reduction by Fe²⁺-montmorillonite is generally much slower and restricted to a pH range, where selenite is adsorbed (pH < 7), stressing the importance of a heterogeneous, surface-enhanced electron transfer reaction. Although the solids precipitated by the redox reaction are nanocrystalline, their solubility remains below 6.3 × 10^− 8 M. No evidence for aqueous metal selenide colloids nor for Se sorption to colloidal phases was found. Since Fe^II phases like the ones investigated here should be ubiquitous in the near field of nuclear waste disposals as well as in the surrounding aquifers, mobility of the fission product ⁷⁹Se may be much lower than previously assumed.     

Dental microwear patterns of extant and extinct Muridae (Rodentia, Mammalia): ecological implications

Extant species of Muridae occupy a wide array of habitats and have diverse dietary habits. Consequently, their dental microwear patterns represent a potential clue to better understand the paleoecology of their extinct relatives, which are abundant in many Old World Neogene localities. In this study, dental microwear is investigated for specimens of 17 extant species of murine and deomyine rodents in order to test the reliability of this method and infer dietary preferences on the fossil species Saïdomys afarensis. This extinct form comes from a mid-Pliocene site (AL 327) located at the Hadar Formation (Ethiopia) known to have delivered many hominid specimens of Australopithecus afarensis. A significant correlation between microwear patterns and diet is detected. Thus, grass, fruit, and insect eaters display, respectively, high amounts of fine scratches, wide scratches, and large pits. Moreover, some aspects of the paleoecology of S. afarensis, including feeding habits, could be assessed in regard to its dental microwear pattern. Indeed, it probably had feeding habits similar to that of living grass eaters. These results concur with the presence of open to woodland areas covered by an herbaceous vegetal layer, including monocotyledons, in the vicinity of this mid-Pliocene locality.     

Report on the fifth meeting of INRA’s national network of ecotoxicologists,ECOTOX

The fifth meeting of INRA’s national network of ecotoxicologists took place on 25 to 27 November 2014 in Biarritz, France. The main aim of the meeting was to bring together ecotoxicologists from INRA and associated partners, providing them ample opportunity to share and discuss their latest scientific results as well as the national policy of research in ecotoxicology and to precise perspectives for the network.     

Innovative design of an LDPE reactor bay against gas explosion using a risk-based approach coupled with high fidelity computer tools

High pressure tubular reactors for the production of Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) are, for safety reasons, enclosed in a protective bay open towards the sky. They are becoming longer and larger due to production capacity increases. TECHNIP has historically designed these reactor bays based on Licensor information, which include more or less empirical correlations. Further capacity developments require the design of these concrete enclosures to be challenged. With this in mind, the present study shows the interest of implementing an innovative methodology based upon a risk-based approach to define new design criteria for the enclosure walls. The method, which combines both risk analysis with computational fluid dynamics modelling (3D CFD) and non-linear finite element analysis (NLFEA) tools, allows a clear determination of the design overpressure loads applied on walls and offers an optimisation of the concrete wall thickness. The CFD study also leads to a better understanding of the ventilation and efficiency of safety systems (gas detection, depressurisation) with possibility for improvement of the hazardous area classification rating.     

Reactivity of secondary phases in weathered limestone using isotopic tracers (D and 18O)

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - For a long time, limestone has been massively used in stone building and monuments because of its easy extraction and common presence in the...