Chaos and complexity in development

SUMMARY

The paper outlines some main features of chaos theory. Examples of chaotic systems in society and the environment are given. Spontaneous interaction of components, without being planned or directed, is known as ‘self-organising behaviour’. Chaos is an essential aspect of this self organisation, occurring in many forms. A chaotic system is defined as one that shows sensitivity to initial conditions. If the errors relative to the initial conditions become too great, the system will eventually collapse. Development projects are sensitive to such initial conditions. In particular, two examples in development are outlined in some detail and commented upon. One is the occurrence of a project promoting self-organising systems among the poorest of the poor. The other outlines how rehabilitation after resettlement in a power project has transgressed the ‘edge of chaos’ socio-emotionally, in spite of the socioeconomic development being good.     

Digital Air Photo Processing for Mapping of Copper Roof Distribution and Estimation of Related Copper Pollution

Emission of metals in the urbanenvironment is a growing concern throughout theworld. In order to identify metal emissionssources in the Stockholm metropolitan region, amethod for detailed mapping of roof coatings andother urban land covers has been developedconducted. High accuracy area calculation ofcopper roof coatings based on scanned aerialphotography was used. The geometric resolution ofthe digital photographs was 0.4 metre. Imagelayers with identified copper roof objects weremerged with a digital elevation model of 1 metregeometric resolution. The slope gradient for eachroof was calculated in order to account for slopein the calculation of roof areas. In total,622,590 m² of copper roofs were accounted,of which 176,845 m² and 447,745 m²represent new and patinated copper respectively.The number of copper roofs larger than 1,000m² was 142. Applying corrosion and runoffrates on these figures, a yearly Cu flux ofapproximately 1,200 kg in Stockholm may bederived from copper coated building.     

Process Based Modelling of Phosphorus Losses from Arable Land

Improved understanding of temporal and spatial Phosphorus (P) discharge variations is needed for improved modelling and prioritisation of abatement strategies that take into account local conditions . This study is aimed at developing modelling of agricultural Phosphorus losses with improved spatial and temporal resolution, and to compare the accuracy of a detailed process-based model with a rainfall-runoff coefficient-based model. The process-based SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was implemented for five river basins in central Sweden, and results compared with the rainfall-runoff coefficient-based model WATSHMAN (Watershed Management System) for one of these river basins. Parameter settings and attribute values were adapted to Scandinavian soil conditions, crops and management practices. Model performance regarding flow dynamics was overall satisfactory. Comparable results were achieved at several scales. The modelled P load was of high accuracy for the days when monitoring data were available for validation, generally once a month. Modelled monthly P load did not fit as well with averaged monthly monitoring load values, mainly since monthly monitoring often partly or entirely misses the peak flows. The comparison of SWAT and WATSHMAN gave slightly better results for the process-based model (SWAT). Better spatial resolution for input data such as Soil-P content and agricultural management practices will be required to reach modelling results that enable identification of measures adapted to local conditions.