Towards a co-evolutionary framework for implementing sustainable development

SUMMARY

A quantitative method which can be used to gauge the sustainability of existing socio-cultural, economic and environmental constructs is proposed. An underlying assumption of the approach is that a co-evolutionary relationship exists between social, cultural, economic and environmental systems and that these cannot be addressed in a reductionist and deterministic manner. The method focuses on both broad trends and patterns of variance in a multivariate data matrix, it allows the identification of dominant trends as well as underlying tensions, does not treat socio-cultural, economic and environmental heterogeneity as statistical noise and can be applied at different administrative scales. Furthermore, it may be used to identify potential sources of human insecurity, factors that may affect the probability of positive human survival, developmental patterns at odds with the established values system of civil society that can be targeted for political action, and to inform public debate. In addition, the method can be used to identify unexpected synergies between variables and may serve as an early warning system for regional planners.     

Dry Deposition Monitoring in Europe

Between 1993 and 1999 two EU funded projects wereexecuted aimed at (i) the development of drydeposition monitoring methods for core sites andlarge scale application, (ii) the installation andrunning of three core sites in Europe and (iii) the improvement and validation of models used forregional application. This article provides anoverview of the development of depositionmonitoring stations and the main results of thethree core sites, which were operated between1995 and 1998. Furthermore, the results of thedevelopment of a low cost monitoring system arepresented. Continuous measurements were made ofboth wet and dry deposition of sulphur andnitrogen components and base cations. The 4 yearsof data show a decrease in sulphur loads and notrend for the other components. It is shown thatthe surface affinities for sulphur depositionalso changed during the years, underpinning theneed for dry deposition monitoring. A conditionaltime average gradient system was successfullydeveloped and tested and provides a good meansfor low cost monitoring of dry deposition fluxes.The costs can be reduced by a factor of 3–4 without losing the accuracy of the annual average gas fluxes.     

Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

Establishing the link between ammonia emission control and measurements of reduced nitrogen concentrations and deposition

In the context of international efforts to reduce the impactsof atmospheric NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺ (collectively, NH_x), it is important to establish the link between NH₃emissions and monitoring of NH_x concentrations and deposition. This is equally relevant to situations where NH₃emissions changes are certain (e.g. due to changed source sectoractivity), as to cases where NH₃ abatement technologies havebeen implemented. Correct interpretation of adequate atmosphericmeasurements is essential, since monitoring data provide the onlymeans to evaluate trends in regional NH₃ emissions.These issues have been reviewed using available measurements and modelling from nine countries. In addition to historic datasets,the analysis here considers countries where NH₃ source sector activity changed (both increases and decreases) and countries where NH₃ abatement policies have been implemented.In The Netherlands an `ammonia gap' was identified between the expected reduction and results of monitoring, and was attributedinitially to ineffectiveness of the abatement measures. The analysis here for a range of countries shows that atmospheric interactions complicate the expected changes, particularly sinceSO₂ emissions have decreased at the same time, while at manysites the few years of available data show substantial inter-annual variation. It is concluded that networks need to beestablished that speciate between NH₃ and aerosol NH₄ ⁺, in addition to providing wet deposition, and sample at sufficient sites for robust regional estimates to be established. Such measurements will be essential to monitor compliance of the international agreements on NH₃ emission abatement.     

Confronting environmental pressure,environmental quality and human health impact indicators of priority air emissions

This paper evaluates the ranking of 21 priority air pollutants with three indicator schemes: environmental pressure indicator (EPI), environmental quality indicator (EQI), and human health effect indicator (HEI). The EPI and EQI compare the emissions and concentrations with the target emissions and target concentrations, respectively. The HEI comprehends the steps from cause (i.e. national emissions) to effect (i.e. human health effects), and is the total human health burden, expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years per year of exposure (DALYs year^?1). We estimated a health burden in the Netherlands of 41 × 10³ DALYs year^?1 caused by Dutch air emissions of PM10 and its precursors in the year 2003. The burden due to 17 carcinogenic substances emitted to air, was much lower (140 DALYs year^?1). In contrast, when the same substances were evaluated regarding environmental pressure and environmental quality, carbon tetrachloride (pressure) and benzo[a]pyrene (quality) were of highest importance, whereas the importance of PM10 was substantially lower. This result is remarkable, because for the majority of substances evaluated, the target concentrations and target emissions are based on preventing human health damage. The differences in relevance are explained by the different weighting of interests in the indicators. The HEI is based on concentration–response relations, whereas the EPI and EQI also depend on other, policy-based, principles and on technical feasibility. Therefore, to effectively prioritize emission reduction measures in policy-making, substances should not only be evaluated as to whether emission targets and environmental quality targets are reached, but they should be evaluated regarding their human health impact as well. In this context, the HEI is a suitable indicator to evaluate the human health impact.     

A global security approach towards implementing sustainable development in southern Africa

SUMMARY

An interactive and incremental developmental approach to sustainable development is proposed. It requires broad public participation, is based on the development of a shared value system for civic society and norms which determine the behaviour of states. It is aimed at building commitment rather than directing change. This is achieved by simultaneoulsy harnessing the notions of ‘positive human survival’ adopted from Global Security theory and a co-evolutionary approach to human socio-economic constructs. Modern threats to Nation States can be regarded as ‘threats without enemies’, are not compatible with traditional views of sovereignty, and confronting such threats frequently requires co-operative behaviour and good neigbourliness from states. Principles likely to underpin an evolving shared value system for Nation states and civil society include: democracy, equity and diversity. In order to deal with the uncertainty of evolving socio-economic constructs and the conceptual pluralism inherent in modern societies, public agencies need to develop significant mediation, negotiation and facilitation skills. This view has significant implications for National and Regional policy, and the democratisation of information and the development of early warning capabilities about potential threats to human security are pivotal.