Climate Change Implications on Flood Response of a Mountainous Watershed

The modification of the flood response due to future climate change is presented for the Illecillewaet watershed of British Columbia, Canada. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCMa1) was used for the assessment of changes of precipitation and temperature due to climate change. The runoff was simulated using the UBC watershed model and considering, also, changes on the spatial distribution of precipitation with elevation, cloud cover, glaciers, vegetation distribution, vegetation biomass production, and plant physiology. The results show that the future climate would be wetter and warmer than the present climate affecting the type, the magnitude and the temporal distribution of floods as well as the frequency of flood peaks. The above changes in the flood response of the study watershed could be explained by the change of the form of precipitation from snowfall to rainfall, the consequent decrease of the snowpack, and the initiation of the snowmelt earlier in the season, under the altered climate.