Sustainability and the measurement of future paths in genuine savings: case studies

This paper extrapolates future paths of genuine savings (GS) by using our integrated assessment model. The results with the base case (BC) indicate that both GS without population change (GS) and GS with population change (GSn) are almost positive in OECD countries in the twenty-first century (satisfying the necessary but insufficient condition for sustainability); those numbers are projected to be negative in 2100. Asia (ASIA), the Middle East and Africa (MEAF), the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (FSEE), and the world show upward trends for both values, showing negative signs in 2010 and positive signs after 2050 (in ASIA, MEAF, and the world) and in 2100 (in FSEE). The values in Latin America (LAMR) remain negative throughout. We examine additional following three cases: demand reduction (DR), carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction (CR), and population reduction (PR). The GSn results compared to the BC indicate that (1) GSn in DR is similar to that of BC, (2) GSn in PR is slightly higher than that of BC, and (3) GSn in CR is unexpectedly lower than that of BC. This GSn reduction in the CR case derives from the fact that the term for calculating resource depletion (especially resource rent, which equals the difference between price and cost) in GS and GSn increased, leading to a greater term being subtracted from gross savings. The resource price increases with the marginal price of natural gas, given the energy-source shift in reducing CO₂ emissions, from cheap coal to expensive natural gas.     

Detoxification of hexachlorobenzene by dechlorination with potassium-sodium alloy

Dechlorination of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) was achieved by a liquid potassium–sodium (K–Na)-alloy. HCB in a cyclohexane/benzene solution (22 mmol/l, 4.67 g/l as chlorine) was dechlorinated by almost 100% after a 30-min reaction, indicating high reactivity of K–Na alloy and high proton donating power of cyclohexane. Decreasing orders of chlorobenzenes identified after a 15-min reaction, by amount were 1,2,3,4- > 1,2,3,5- > 1,2,4,5- for tetrachlorobenzenes, 1,2,4- > 1,2,3- > 1,3,5- for trichlorobenzenes, and 1,4- > 1,3- > 1,2- for dichlorobenzenes. It was hypothesized that once one chlorine atom in HCB was replaced with a proton, the adjacent chlorine atom to the proton tended to be replaced with another hydrogen atom. A total of 63 PCBs formed via the Wurtz–Fittig reaction were identified as by-products in the sample after a 15-min reaction. Among PCBs found, 2,3^′,4^′,5-tetrachlorobiphenyl, which was a product from 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene formed via the Wurtz–Fittig reaction, was detected in relatively high concentration (48.9 nmol/ml). The sample obtained from a reaction mixture after 30 min contained only 14 PCBs in trace amounts, indicating that the PCBs formed were also further dechlorinated by K–Na alloy. Non-chlorinated compounds––such as methylbenzene, dimethylbenzene, dimer of tetrahydrofuran, and dicyclohexyl (dimer of cyclohexane)––were also identified in the samples. A method using K–Na alloy developed in the present study dechlorinated satisfactorily HCB at room temperature.     

Measuring marginal willingness to pay using conjoint analysis and developing benefit transfer functions in various Asian cities

We need a consistent methodology to measure the co-benefits of climate change mitigation across Asian countries. This study chose a strategy of modifying the Japan-specific life-cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME) for wider application across countries. LIME has two dimensions. First, it is an environmental science that links the cause-and-effect chain. Second, it is an environmental valuation that weighs four endpoint damages in monetary terms through a conjoint analysis that is derived from an Internet-based questionnaire survey. This article describes the modification of the methodology for application of the conjoint analysis to weigh environmental impacts. We approached the investigation as follows. First, we conducted Internet surveys to measure marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP). We used a sample of 112 respondents in their 20 s to 40 s, divided equally between men and women, in 11 cities across China, India, and Southeast Asia. The results obtained showed clear statistical significance and were comparable across the cities. Second, we attempted to develop functions (called benefit transfer functions) to simplify the measured MWTP in order to apply it across different Asian countries. The functions were derived through a stepwise meta-analytic method, a type of multiple regression analysis whose independent variable was MWTP and dependent variables were attributes of both respondents and surveyed cities. The functions showed that coal consumption and percentage of nature reserve were dependent variables. Then, the MWTPs estimated from the functions were compared with the measured MWTP for transfer error, which is calculated by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value and the measured value divided by the latter. The transfer error was below 50% in about 90% of the 44 results (a combination of four endpoints and 11 cities), implying that the developed functions were statistically significant.     

Measuring future dynamics of genuine saving with changes of population and technology: application of an integrated assessment model

Theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the genuine saving (GS) based on neoclassical economic theory to assess sustainable development (SD). However, only market prices and statistical national accounts have been used in empirical studies due to limited data availability. The data availability limits to measure GS only in the past and current, causing a wide gap with theoretical results. In this paper, we propose computing GS using an integrated assessment model (IAM) as connected to the mainframe model of macroeconomy. This enables us to use shadow prices, rather than market prices, obtained through an IAM, which ensures substantial consistency among variables. An example would be endogenous capital–output ratio and the rate of TFP. Also, our indicator of GS is more comprehensive in that they now account for various resources, environmental degradation, and land use. Our simulation results, with a particular focus on GS with population change (GSn) and with technological change as well (GSnt), show a sustainable future for up to the end of the century thanks to declining population in the latter half of the century and technological progress, although GS without accounting for population and technology tend to be negative, driven by, among others, capital depreciation and net primary productivity degraded by land use.     

A study on forecasting paths of genuine savings and wealth without and with carbon dioxide constraints: development of shadow price functions

This paper has developed a method for forecasting the future paths of genuine savings (GS) with and without carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions constraints. GS calculations require shadow prices, which can be endogenously determined for variables and constraints in a model. However, in case of a ‘business as usual’ model (BAU), the shadow prices required for calculating GS without constraints show theoretically zero. This research derives the shadow prices required to measure GS for the BAU case as a function of several variables available in the optimal (economically efficient) case. This function is estimated from endogenously obtained variables from a model with environmental constraints. Subsequently, this function is used to calculate shadow prices with and without CO₂ constraints, which are further employed to compute future paths of GS according to two methods applied in the papers by Arrow et al. We successfully estimated GS (or GSnt; GS with changes in population and technology) under the BAU case, however, suggest that GS (or GSnt) measures depend, to a great extent, on the time span under consideration (truncation year) for wealth accounting and the accounting methods by Arrows’ papers used for its estimation. In some cases, especially according to the methodology used by Arrow’s paper in 2004 using adjusted consumption in wealth accounting, the sign of GS (or GSnt) changes from negative to positive when changes in total factor productivity are taken into consideration. These aspects should be explored before measuring (un)sustainability of a particular path based on the GS (or GSnt) indicator.     

Dechlorination of hexachlorobiphenyl by using potassium-sodium alloy

2,2',4,4',5,5'-Hexachlorobiphenyl (HCB) was dechlorinated with potassium-sodium (K-Na) alloy under an inert gas atmosphere. Solvent effect was observed in the reaction. Dechlorination yields in benzene and cyclohexane were 99.9998%, and 99.99996%, respectively. The reaction was exothermic and proceeded at room temperature. In benzene, trace amounts of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as products by stepwise dechlorination and polychlorinated quarterphenyls as product of Wurtz-Fittig reaction were detected as reaction intermediate. Reaction products were biphenyl, cyclohexylbenzene, and dicyclohexyl. In cyclohexane, there were no products of Wurtz-Fittig reaction. Dechlorination at para-position preferred to that at ortho-position, judging from analysis of PCBs as intermediates of stepwise dechlorination.     

Chemical and bioassay monitoring of PCB-contaminated soil remediation using solvent extraction technology

Illegal dumping of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) capacitors was discovered in Kobe, Japan, in 2001, leaving about 68 m(3) (92 tons) of soil contaminated with approximately 6.6 kg of PCBs. Solvent extraction technology carried out in 2002-2003 using isopropyl alcohol remedied the affected soil at the site. Forty-seven batch treatments were conducted during full-scale treatment. On average, 8.4 extraction cycles per batch were needed to achieve the clean-up goal for PCBs (i.e., the Japanese environmental quality standard for soil). Analytical results showed that the average PCB concentration (88 microg g(-1)-dry soil) in untreated soil samples of all the batches was decreased to 1.2 microg g(-1)-dry soil in treated soil samples, yielding a removal efficiency of 98.6%. Dioxin responsive-chemical activated luciferase gene expression assay (DR-CALUX) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) adopting a monoclonal antibody against 2,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB #118) were used to rapidly screen soil samples before and after solvent extraction. The DR-CALUX and ELISA results were in good agreement with World Health Organization toxicity equivalent values and analytically determined PCB concentrations, respectively. Regular monitoring during the treatment period confirmed that the applied technology met Japanese environmental and control regulations concerning treatment and disposal of contaminated soils and treatment residues. After full-scale treatment, the amount of PCBs recovered from the solvent purification system approximated the estimated amount of PCBs spilled.