Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming

Measures for vehicle exhaust emissions aimed at reducing either air pollution or global warming could have counterproductive effects on one another. Increasing diesel passenger vehicles, which generally have lower CO₂ emissions than gasoline counterparts, leads to increasing particulate matter (PM) emissions, while gasoline has lower PM emissions than diesel. It is said that stringent limits on PM emission factors discourages improved CO₂ emission factors. Without including both effects in a risk evaluation, one cannot evaluate whether the total risk is reduced or not. Hence, we evaluated representative exhaust emission measures based on risk evaluation for both air pollution and global warming. Considering consumer choice between diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles and emissions standards adopted in Japan from 1995 to 2005, we built five cases for vehicle policy evaluation. For each case, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as an index of human health risk caused by lung cancer linked to inhalation exposure of elemental carbon in PM as well as due to global warming linked to CO₂. The results of our risk evaluation reveal that the case adopting the 2005 new long-term Japanese emission standard reduces the human health risk caused by lung cancer due to air pollution by 0.6 × 10³ DALY, but would increase the risk due to global warming by 31.9 × 10³ DALY compared with the case of adopting EURO 4, for the same conditions of passenger vehicle choice from 1995. These results suggest that the characteristics of Japanese emissions standards are mainly designed to reduce air pollution.     

Heat wave vulnerability and exposure mapping for Osaka City,Japan

Heat waves and heat-related stresses are increasing environmental concerns in urban areas. The impact of heat waves is dependent on the intensity and duration of each event and on underlying environmental and socio-demographic factors which influence population vulnerability. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies, it is important to develop a method to clearly identify the most vulnerable areas based on these factors. The purpose of this study is to develop and map a heat wave vulnerability index combined with heat exposure analysis to identify areas where interventions can be targeted. The vulnerability index was derived from a principle component analysis of eight key variables that influence heat wave vulnerability. Eight proxy measures of vulnerability were obtained from 2010 census and land-use data for the 1904 census districts of Osaka City. Three principle components explained >77 % of the variance (age, employment and education; social isolation; density and lack of green space). The components were combined and weighted to produce a vulnerability score for each census district. The vulnerability scores ranged from 0 to 106, were categorised into eight vulnerability levels and were overlaid with fine-scale air temperature observations. The resulting output identified the distribution of population vulnerability and exposure. This assessment of vulnerability, combining exposure and sensitivity components, can provide precedent for efficient, targeted action to be taken to reduce the impact of heat waves at present and under climate change.     

Clarifying relationships between participatory approaches,issues, processes,and results,through crosscutting case analysis in Japan’s environmental,energy, and food policy areas

Participatory public engagement approaches such as Consensus Conferences, Deliberative Polling^®, and Planning Cells have been used to try and resolve environmental disputes in Japan; however, the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches have not been analyzed adequately or comprehensively. This paper evaluates practical applications of each of the above participatory approaches and conducts a crosscutting analysis of these applications to evaluate how effectively each approach provides scientific information to participants and to consider how the quality of deliberations that occur during these processes affect their outputs. Based on existing classification of participatory processes, and methodology for public involvement in US environmental decision-making, this study compares and contrasts the processes and outcomes of 25 participatory planning case studies in Japan. After compiling a case inventory of participatory approaches, the features of one approach are documented using qualitative analysis, and the aspects of four other approaches are confirmed using crosscutting analysis. In so doing, the likely strengths and weaknesses of each approach are suggested as follows. When discussions require an understanding of scientific knowledge, the Consensus Conference tends to be more suitable than the DP approach. If the consensus of participants is expected, the Consensus Conference is also thought to be suitable. But through a DP process or Simplified Planning Cells approach, we can know the quantitative portion of each opinion through results of ballots. In sum, new participatory approach that incorporates strengths of the Consensus Conference and the Simplified Planning Cells into Local Environmental Planning is needed. Thus, the quality of consensus building could be improved.     

The development of a method to determine the burden of climate change on different health outcomes at a local scale: a case study in Osaka Prefecture,Japan

Climate change impacts human health in a variety of ways. Variables including the climate-related risk factor, the health outcome and location all determine the nature and extent of the impact. The existence of different pathways and endpoints presents a problem for quantifying and comparing impacts. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) provides a common scale, whereby the impact of climate change on both acute and chronic health outcomes can be compared. This study presents a methodology to calculate the impact of climate change on human health at a local scale, using cardiovascular disease (CVD) and meteorological disaster-related injuries (DRIs) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, as applied case studies. An additional very fine scale assessment of CVD conducted at the neighbourhood level to demonstrate the importance of conducting risk assessments at a local level. The comparative results calculated the impact of climate change in 2050 to be 16.866 DALY/100,000 population for CVD and 0.645 DALY/100,000 for meteorological DRIs. The actual impact of climate change by 2050 on CVD is judged to be higher, although the relative risk was projected to be lower (1.006, compared to 1.263 for meteorological DRIs). The fine scale assessment revealed the variations in the projected impact of climate change on CVD for all administrative zones in Osaka Prefecture. The range of impacts varied from 0 to 114.29 DALY/100,000. The results demonstrate the applicability of using DALY to quantify the impact of climate change on different health outcomes, using a transferable methodology, and provide information that enables evidence-based prioritisation of climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.     

Applying value of information methods to prioritize elements for water quality management with an example of linear alkylbenzene sulfonate in the Yodo River,Japan

Narrowing the decision space is crucial in water quality management at the meso-scale for developing countries, where a lack of data and financial budgets prevent the development of appropriate management plans and result in serious water quality degradation in many rivers. In this study, a framework for handling this task is proposed, comprising a lumped water quality model, with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and a management domain, including loss estimation and value of information analysis. Through a case study with linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) in the Yodo River, it is found that non-point sources and flow rate are factors that influence LAS concentration at the hot spot location. By considering the entire process of water quality management planning, we identify that the definition of the cost function of LAS treatment determines the appropriate estimation for the expected loss in reducing LAS under uncertain water quality conditions. The value of information analysis with “expected value of including uncertainty” and “expected value of perfect information” further helps estimate the benefit of including uncertainty in decision-making and the financial cost for obtaining more information regarding inputs that have been previously prioritized.     

Evaluation of recycling policies for PET bottles based on multiattribute utility indices

This study focused on waste plastic, especially the polyethylene telephthalate (PET) bottle as representative waste, which has been assigned as goods to be recycled by the Packaging Waste Recycling Law in Japan. We developed a plastic transport model which explained the entire flow of plastic from the production stage to the disposal stage within an the evaluation model of plastic recycle policy based on multiattribute utility theory. This model is designed to be used by local municipal governments in supporting the evaluation of the PET bottle recycling policy. In evaluating the plastics recycling policy, we selected indices relating to economy, ecology, and rate of resource recycling. The results indicate that when the evaluation of the material recycling policy and thermal recycling policy in the model city were characterized in terms of their economic and environmental aspects the thermal recycling policy had the highest utility within our scenario. Received: July 31, 1998 / Accepted: January 26, 1999     

Environmental impact assessment on production and material supply stages of lithium-ion batteries with increasing demands for electric vehicles

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been expected to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other...     

System dynamic modeling of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040

Transportation sector is the second largest producer of greenhouse gas in Malaysia next to energy sector. It contributes to nearly 28 % of annual national carbon emissions due to its heavy dependency of hydrocarbons such as gasoline. If not properly managed, carbon dioxide emissions per capita are expected to nearly double in the next 5 years. Lack of interdisciplinary study on this sector has caused proper mitigation initiatives to be delayed, compounding the damage to the ecosystem. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic probabilistic model to determine emissions and pollutants of transportation system in Malaysia using Analytica software, with focus on passenger cars for its large number over other vehicle classes. Several vehicle fleet management policies based on several key governmental, industrial and stakeholder’s intervention have been constructed and analyzed for a period of 25 years. This analysis found that greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants in 2040 can be reduced by up to 80 %, compared to emissions of 2020, without any adverse effect on vehicle demand nor the economy. However, without proper intervention, personal transportation system in Malaysia will generate nearly 80,000 kilotons of greenhouse gas annually by the year 2040.     

Selection of product categories for a national eco-labelling scheme in developing countries: a case study of Vietnamese manufacturing sub-sectors

Although the selection of product categories is a deciding factor for the success of eco-labelling schemes, there are no consistent methods for determining selection factors and how to prioritise product categories for developing countries (DgCs). This paper attempts to identify appropriate factors for product category selection and formulate a prioritisation method applicable to DgCs. We first examined the selection factors currently utilised in schemes worldwide by conducting a questionnaire survey of representatives of foreign schemes. Selection factors were illustrated on a plot graph, which indicated the percentage of factors implemented in the schemes of DgCs and developed countries (DGs), and their plausibility assessed when utilised in the schemes of DgCs. In this way, we proposed three groups of factors: an exclusion factor, five core factors and seven operational factors. Then, under the conditions of DgCs, such as socioeconomic issues and availability of data, we used and modified some judging guidelines of the European Ecolabel (the EU Flower), e.g. determining the environmental impacts and potential of environmental improvements, in the scoring method to prioritise product categories by weighting factors. In light of our findings, we utilised the proposed factors and modified the scoring method to prioritise the screened primary list of product categories of Vietnamese manufacturing sub-sectors. By scoring factor-based questions and prioritising in three ways, i.e. following the scoring method of the EU Flower programme, totalling all values with equal weighting, and totalling all values but by doubling the weighting of core factors compared with operational factors, we observed that the weighted prioritisation differentiates priority product categories more clearly than the other methods. We propose the two highest potential candidates for eco-labelling in Vietnam, namely textile/garment and fishery products.