Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Estimating the Benefits of Agri-environmental Policy: Econometric Issues in Open-ended Contingent Valuation Studies

This paper reports on an open-ended Contingent Valuation Method study of the conservation benefits of Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) in Scotland. The ESA scheme is a central component of agri-environmental policy in the UK, and an interesting policy question concerns the extent of non-market benefits generated by such ESAs. The econometric issues we raise in this paper revolve around bid curves. Bid curves are estimated in open-ended Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) studies for three reasons. These are: (1) as a test of theoretical validity; (2) as a test of discriminant validity; and (3) as a means of benefits transfer. Within the first and last of these aims, the partial relationship between willingness to pay (WTP) and independent variables such as income is of interest. There are several econometric issues involved in estimating such relationships, First, the selection process implicit in obtaining positive WTP bids should be explicitly modelled. Second, many CVM surveys suffer from item non-response with respect to 'sensitive' questions such as the respondent's income; these non-responses may be non-random in nature. Finally, it is possible to dis-aggregate the effect of marginal changes in, say, income on WTP into two elements, namely: an effect on the probability that the individual will be willing to pay something; and secondly, an effect on how much they are willing to pay.     

Estimating the economic value of improvements in river ecology using choice experiments: an application to the water framework directive

The Water Framework Directive is a major regulatory reform of water resources management within the European Union. Integrated catchment management plans must be prepared for all river basins, in order to achieve 'good ecological status' in all EU waters. Ecological status is a broader measure of water quality than the chemical and biological measures that were previously dominant. The Directive calls for a consideration of the economic costs and benefits of improvements to ecological status. In this paper, we use the choice experiment method to estimate the value of improvements in three components of ecological status. Given the high resource cost of valuation studies, benefits transfer methods will be needed in implementing the Directive. We thus also test the ability of choice experiments for benefits transfer across two very similar rivers in the UK.