排序方式: 共有11条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
AKÇAKAYA HR 《Environmental management》2000,26(Z1):S75-S83
Multiple-species reserves aim at supporting viable populations of selected species. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a group of methods for predicting such measures as extinction risk based on species-specific data. These methods include models that simulate the dynamics of a population or a metapopulation. A PVA model for the California gnatcatcher in Orange County was developed with landscape (GIS) data on the habitat characteristics and requirements and demographic data on population dynamics of the species. The potential applications of this model include sensitivity analysis that provides guidance for planning fieldwork, designing reserves, evaluating management options, and assessing human impact. The method can be extended to multiple species by combining habitat suitability maps for selected species with weights based on the threat faced by each species, and the contribution of habitat patches to the persistence of each species. These applications and extensions, together with the ability of the model to combine habitat and demographic data, make PVA a powerful tool for the design, conservation, and management of multiple species reserves. 相似文献
2.
M. A. M. de Groot-Reichwein R. J. A. van Lammeren H. Goosen A. Koekoek A. K. Bregt P. Vellinga 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2018,23(2):169-185
By 2050, 75 % of the world’s population will live in cities and the occurrence of heat wave events might have doubled. Mapping the climate and land use change impact for urban heat events should set the agenda for adaptation planning at the local scale. Literature on urban heat mapping does not reveal a clear indicator to visualise the urban heat impacts that includes consequences of land use and climate changes for planning purposes. This paper introduces a stepwise approach to develop a single complex indicator to map the urban heat impact for local climate adaptation planning processes. Information on climatic drivers and land use characteristics are combined and projected for future land use and climate change impacts. Next, several visualisation techniques are developed to investigate which techniques are most effective to visualise complex information with multiple variables in one visualisation. A usability test is performed to investigate how indicator and map meet the information and communication needs of policy makers. Our findings reveal that it is important to add information on future impacts to set the agenda for adaptation planning at the local scale. Applying cartographic techniques in a map series presentation has proven to be effective to map complex information in a single image and fulfil most of the identified information needs. Based on our finding, we introduce the information enrichment chain as a promising approach to support local adaptation planning. 相似文献
3.
DAVID A. KEITH MICHAEL MAHONY HARRY HINES JANE ELITH TRACEY J. REGAN JOHN B. BAUMGARTNER DAVID HUNTER GEOFFREY W. HEARD NICOLA J. MITCHELL KIRSTEN M. PARRIS TRENT PENMAN BEN SCHEELE CHRISTOPHER C. SIMPSON REID TINGLEY CHRISTOPHER R. TRACY MATT WEST H. RESIT AKÇAKAYA 《Conservation biology》2014,28(3):810-819
Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al. 相似文献
4.
TIMOTHY C. BONEBRAKE ALEXANDRA D. SYPHARD JANET FRANKLIN KURT E. ANDERSON H. RESIT AKÇAKAYA TONI MIZEREK CLARK WINCHELL HELEN M. REGAN 《Conservation biology》2014,28(4):1057-1067
Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long‐lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire‐prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long‐lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land‐use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land‐use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. Manejo de Incendios, Reubicación Administrada y Opciones de Conservación de Suelo para Plantas de Vida Larga con Sembrado Obligado bajo los Cambios Globales en el Clima, la Urbanización y el Régimen de Incendios 相似文献
5.
6.
GEORGINA M. MACE NIGEL J. COLLAR KEVIN J. GASTON CRAIG HILTON‐TAYLOR H. RESIT AKÇAKAYA NIGEL LEADER‐WILLIAMS E.J. MILNER‐GULLAND SIMON N. STUART 《Conservation biology》2008,22(6):1424-1442
Abstract: The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria. 相似文献
7.
Weitkamp G Van den Berg AE Bregt AK Van Lammeren RJ 《Journal of environmental management》2012,95(1):17-28
In the last decade policy makers have increasingly recognized the need to include people's perceptions in methods for describing landscape quality. At the same time, a third wave of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has become available that make it technically possible to model landscape quality in a realistic manner. However, as there is often a mismatch between science and policy, it remains unclear to what extent perception-based models developed by scientists can be useful to policy makers. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the usefulness to policy making of a GIS-based procedure for describing perceived landscape openness. To this end, a workshop was organized which was attended by eight Dutch policy makers who acted as representatives of their province (region). The Group Decision Room (GDR) technique was used to elicit the policy makers' evaluations of the procedure in an anonymous and reliable manner. The procedure was presented to the policy makers using cases from their own province, which they assessed using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods. The results show that policy makers rated the procedure as being highly relevant to policy making, scientifically credible, usable by policy makers and feasible to implement in the policy making process. They especially appreciated the flexibility and transparency of the procedure. The policy makers concluded that the procedure would be of most value for monitoring landscape changes and for analysing impacts on landscape openness in land use scenario studies. However, they requested guidelines for proper implementation of the various options in the procedure. In general, the current study shows that explicit and transparent evaluation of the usefulness of GIS-based tools can aid integration at the science-policy interface and help to ensure that both scientists and policy makers are informed of interrelated options and requirements. 相似文献
8.
Land use change and population growth in the Morobe Province of Papua New Guinea between 1975 and 2000 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The relation between human population growth and land use change is much debated. Here we present a case study from Papua New Guinea where the population has increased from 2.3 million in 1975 to 5.2 million in 2000. Since 85% of the population relies on subsistence agriculture, population growth affects agricultural land use. We assessed land use change in the Morobe province (33,933 km2) using topographic maps of 1975 and Landsat TM images of 1990 and 2000. Between 1975 and 2000, agricultural land use increased by 58% and population grew by 99%. Most new agricultural land was taken from primary forest and the forest area decreased from 9.8 ha person(-1) in 1975 to 4.4 ha person(-1) in 2000. Total population change and total land use change were strongly correlated. Most of the agricultural land use change occurred on Inceptisols in areas with high rainfall (>2500 mm year(-1)) on moderate to very steep slopes (10-56%). Agricultural land use changes in logged-over areas were in the vicinity of populated places (villages), and in close proximity to road access. There was considerable variation between the districts but districts with higher population growth also had larger increases in agricultural areas. It is concluded that in the absence of improved farming systems the current trend of increased agriculture with rapid population growth is likely to continue. 相似文献
9.
An agent-based approach to explore the effect of voluntary mechanisms on land use change: A case in rural Queensland,Australia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Diego Valbuena Arnold K. Bregt Clive McAlpine Peter H. Verburg Leonie Seabrook 《Journal of environmental management》2010,91(12):2615-2625
In rural regions, land use changes (LUC) are often the result of the decision-making of individual farmers. To influence this decision-making, compulsory and voluntary mechanisms are implemented. However, farmers’ decision-making is a heterogeneous process that depends on their ability and willingness to take certain decisions. Discrepancies between farmers’ ability and willingness and the design of voluntary mechanisms occur frequently. This makes it necessary to understand how farmers’ participation in these mechanisms can affect LUC. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate an agent-based approach to analyse and explore how voluntary mechanisms can influence LUC processes in rural regions. This approach was applied to a rural region in Australia, where clearing of native vegetation has occurred for agricultural development. Historical land cover data and semi-structured interviews were used to parameterise an agent-based model. Factors that influence farmers’ ability and willingness to participate in these mechanisms were identified. Three scenarios were simulated with the model to explore how the implementation of different voluntary mechanisms can affect the landscape structure of the region. This paper identifies how the diversity of farmers’ decision-making can influence the landscape structure in the region. The advantages and limitations of an agent-based approach in relation to LUC research and policy are discussed. 相似文献
10.
A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
Ligtenberg A Wachowicz M Bregt AK Beulens A Kettenis DL 《Journal of environmental management》2004,72(1-2):43-55
Multi-agent Systems (MAS) offer a conceptual approach to include multi-actor decision making into models of land use change. The main goal is to explore the use of MAS to simulate spatial scenarios based on modelling multi-actor decision-making within a spatial planning process. We demonstrate MAS that consists of agents representing organizations and interest groups involved in an urban allocation problem during a land use planning process. The multi-actor based decision-making is modelled by generating beliefs and preferences of actors about the location of and relation between spatial objects. This allows each agent to confront these beliefs and preferences with it's own desires and with that of other agents. The MAS loosely resembles belief, desire and intentions architecture. Based on a case study for a hypothetical land use planning situation in a study area in the Netherlands we discuss the potential and limitations of the MAS to build models that enable spatial planners to include the 'actor factor' in their analysis and design of spatial scenarios. In addition, our experiments revealed the need for further research on the representation of spatial objects and reasoning, learning and communication about allocation problems using MAS. 相似文献