A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized.The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,–1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios. Published on line     

Possible role of marine bacteria in providing the creosote-resistance of Limnoria tripunctata

Electron microscopic examination of thin-sectioned Limnoria tripunctata from creosoted and untreated wood substrates from Panama, Florida, and laboratory aquaria, coupled with limnorian behavioral studies revealed that bacteria may contribute to the wood boring, nutrition, and creosote-resistance of these isopods. Ingested along with wood fragments and encased in a peritrophic membrane in the isopod intestine, these bacteria, upon lysis, may provide supplemental nutrition to the nitrogen-poor wood diet of L. tripunctata. Ingested material has never been observed in the digestive diverticula of limnorians and the presence of the peritrophic membrane in the isopod intestine has been correlated with feeding. Isopods from creosoted wood differed from those inhabiting untreated wood in that the former contained relatively larger and more diverse bacterial populations both on their exoskeletons and in their gut contents. These isopods harbored bacteria, which apparently bypassed the peritrophic membrane and lived in association with the isopod intestinal lining. These gut-associated bacteria were lost when laboratory isopods reared on creosoted wood were transferred to untreated wood. Laboratory isopods reared solely on creosoted or untreated wood were exposed to creosoted and untreated wood substrates, both sterilized and unsterilized. Boring and mortality data from these studies indicated that the creosote-reared population had a microbial flora whose activity facilitated isopod colonization of creosoted substrates. We present the hypothesis that creosote hydrocarbons provide nutrition for isopod-associated bacterial populations and that L. tripunctata may benefit from a concomitant bacterial detoxification of the creosote.