Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

1998年厄尔尼诺后珊瑚礁的侵蚀与恢复:印度洋查戈斯礁群

在印度洋中部查戈斯礁群的大多数珊瑚死亡之后3年,对30m水深以浅珊瑚的侵蚀和恢复情况进行了研究.北部环礁15m水深以浅、中部和南部环礁＞35m处的珊瑚差不多全部死亡.由于密集珊瑚丛的损失,一些礁体"表面"下降了1 5m.珊瑚的生物侵蚀情况严重,减少了三维礁体"结构"并形成松散的碎石.幼年珊瑚数量众多,尽管大部分是在侵蚀的或不稳定的基底上,并且稳定种较少.在15m的深度,礁体间鱼类丰度和多样性仍旧较高;依赖于珊瑚生存的物种减少,而一些食草动物和食碎屑动物则增加.一个新的海面温度(SST)数据集表明,平均SST自1950年以来升高了0.65℃.造成查戈斯珊瑚礁死亡的临界SST是29.9℃.     

Prenatal diagnosis of infantile GM 2 gangliosidosis type II (sandhoff disease) by detection of N-acetylglucosaminyl-oligosaccharides in amniotic fluid with high-performance liquid chromatography

Prenatal diagnosis of Sandhoff disease (infantile onset) at 16 weeks gestation has been made by detection and analysis of N-acetylglucosaminyl-oligosaccharides in amniotic fluid using high performance liquid chromatography. The elution profile for the branched chain oli-gosaccharides was identical with that obtained with neonatal and infantile Sandhoff urine. The concentration of the oligosaccharides in the fluid was 1/100th that of urine but when calculated relative to creatinine the levels were similar. No oligosaccharides were detected in normal control amniotic fluids (10 patients) at a similar gestational age. Based on the levels of the amniotic fluid oligosaccharides and the sensitivity limits of the assay, prenatal diagnosis of patients with the juvenile onset form of the disease may also be possible with this technique.     

Linking field experiments to long-term simulation of impacts of nitrogen deposition on heathlands and moorlands

The results from three long-term field manipulation studies of the impacts of increased nitrogen deposition (0–120 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) on lowland and upland heathlands in the UK were compared, to test if common responses are observed. Consistent increases in Calluna foliar N content and decreases in litter C:N ratios were found across all sites, while increases in N leaching were not observed at any site over the range 0–80 kg ha^?1 yr^?1. However, the response of Calluna biomass did vary between sites, possibly reflecting site differences in nutrient status and management histories. Five versions of a simulation model of heathland responses to N were developed, each reflecting different assumptions about the fate and turnover of soil N. Model outputs supported the deduction from mass balance calculations at two of the field sites that N additions have resulted in an increase in immobilisation; the latter was needed to prevent the model overestimating measured N leaching. However, this version of the model significantly underestimated Calluna biomass. Model versions, which included uptake of organic N by Callunaand re-mobilisation of N from the soil organic store provided some improvement in the fit between modelled and field biomass data, but re-mobilisation also led to an overestimation of N leaching. Quantification of these processes and their response to increased N deposition are therefore critical to interpreting experimental data and predicting the long-term impacts of atmospheric deposition on heathlands and moorlands.     

The sensitivity of surface waters of Great Britain to acidification predicted from catchment characteristics

Using a combination of soil, land use and geological information, a map of Great Britain has been derived which indicates the sensitivity of surface waters to acidification. For the geological information, a slightly modified version of an available map was used which indicated the sensitivity of groundwaters to acidification. For soils, 1-km databases of soil information for England and Wales and for Scotland were employed to map the soil sensitivity as determined by buffering capacity. The derived soils map was modified to take account of agricultural liming in arable and managed grassland areas using the ITE Land Classification. The final map of surface water sensitivity was obtained by using a geographic information system overlay procedure which enabled each combination of soil and geology sensitivity to be uniquely defined. The final sensitivity classification was based upon expert knowledge and the experience of a similar sensitivity mapping exercise for Wales.     

Antimony distribution and environmental mobility at an historic antimony smelter site, New Zealand

A historic antimony smelter site at Endeavour Inlet, New Zealand has smelter residues with up to 17 wt.% antimony. Residues include coarse tailings (cm scale particles, poorly sorted), sand tailings (well sorted) and smelter slag (blocks up to 30 cm across). All of this material has oxidised to some degree over the ca. 100 years since the site was abandoned. Oxidation has resulted in acidification of the residues down to pH 2-5. Smelter slag contains pyrrhotite (FeS) and metallic antimony, and oxidation is restricted to surfaces only. The coarse tailings are the most oxidised, and few sulfide grains persist. Unoxidised sand tailings contain 10-20 vol.% stibnite (Sb2S3) containing up to 5% As, with subordinate arsenopyrite (FeAsS), and minor pyrite (FeS2). The sand tailings are variably oxidised on a scale of 2-10 cm, but original depositional layering is preserved during oxidation and formation of senarmontite (Sb2O3). Oxidation of sand tailings has resulted in localised mobility of both Sb and As on the cm scale, resulting in redistribution of these metalloids with iron oxyhydroxide around sand grain boundaries. Experiments demonstrate that Sb mobility decreases with time on a scale of days. Attenuation of both As and Sb occurs due to adsorption on to iron oxyhydroxides which are formed during oxidation of the smelter residues. There is no detectable loss of Sb or As from the smelter site into the adjacent river, <50 m away, which has elevated Sb (ca. 20 microg/l) and As (ca. 7 microg/l) from mineralised rocks upstream. Despite the high concentrations of Sb and As in the smelter residues, these metalloids are not being released into the environment.     

Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design

We used variance components to assess allocation of sampling effort in a hierarchically nested sampling design for ongoing monitoring of early life history stages of the federally endangered Devils Hole pupfish (DHP) (Cyprinodon diabolis). Sampling design for larval DHP included surveys (5 days each spring 2007–2009), events, and plots. Each survey was comprised of three counting events, where DHP larvae on nine plots were counted plot by plot. Statistical analysis of larval abundance included three components: (1) evaluation of power from various sample size combinations, (2) comparison of power in fixed and random plot designs, and (3) assessment of yearly differences in the power of the survey. Results indicated that increasing the sample size at the lowest level of sampling represented the most realistic option to increase the survey’s power, fixed plot designs had greater power than random plot designs, and the power of the larval survey varied by year. This study provides an example of how monitoring efforts may benefit from coupling variance components estimation with power analysis to assess sampling design.     

Solid waste management in Abuja, Nigeria

The new city of Abuja provided an opportunity to avoid some of the environmental problems associated with other major cities in Africa. The current status of solid waste management in Abuja has been reviewed and recommendations for improvements are made. The existing solid waste management system is affected by unfavourable economic, institutional, legislative, technical and operational constraints. A reliable waste collection service is needed and waste collection vehicles need to be appropriate to local conditions. More vehicles are required to cope with increasing waste generation. Wastes need to be sorted at source as much as possible, to reduce the amount requiring disposal. Co-operation among communities, the informal sector, the formal waste collectors and the authorities is necessary if recycling rates are to increase. Markets for recycled materials need to be encouraged. Despite recent improvements in the operation of the existing dumpsite, a properly sited engineered landfill should be constructed with operation contracted to the private sector. Wastes dumped along roads, underneath bridges, in culverts and in drainage channels need to be cleared. Small-scale waste composting plants could promote employment, income generation and poverty alleviation. Enforcement of waste management legislation and a proper policy and planning framework for waste management are required. Unauthorized use of land must be controlled by enforcing relevant clauses in development guidelines. Accurate population data is necessary so that waste management systems and infrastructure can be properly planned. Funding and affordability remain major constraints and challenges.     

Comparative evaluation of a bioluminescent bacterial assay in terrestrial ecotoxicity testing

Despite the widespread and successful use of luminescence-based bioassays in water testing, their applications to soils and sediments is less proven. In part this is because such bioassays have mainly been carried out in an aqueous-based medium and, as such, favour contaminants that are readily water-soluble. In this study, aqueous solutions and soils contaminated with heavy metals (HM), polar organic contaminants and hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) were tested using a range of luminescence-based bioassays (Vibrio fischeri, Escherichia coli HB101 pUCD607 and Pseudomonas fluorescens 10586r pUCD607). For the first two chemical groups, the assays were highly reproducible when optimised extraction procedures were employed but for HOCs the bioassay response was poor. Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) obtained from aqueous solutions had a linear response although correlation for the chemicals tested using bacterial bioassays was significantly less sensitive than that of sublethal tests for Tetrahymena pyriformis. Bacterial and Dendrobaena veneta bioassay responses to extracts from HM amended soils showed that a clear relationship between trophic levels could be obtained. There is no doubt that the wide range of bioluminescent-based bioassays offers complementary applications to traditional testing techniques but there is a significant need to justify and optimise the extraction protocol prior to application.